Why does China not see how their economic strategy will fail?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by TSLexi, Nov 21, 2014.

  1. TSLexi

    TSLexi

    Why does China not see how their economic strategy will fail? China's economy is heavily based on exports, but at the same time they refuse to let their currency appreciate.

    This will lead to several problems:

    1. Inflation, since huge amounts of renminbi are both received from exports, and the PBOC has to print large amounts of them to buy foreign currency to ensure the renminbi's weakness. In order to stave off domestic inflation, the PBOC has extremely high interest rates (although they have recently been cut somewhat), which will attract forex carry traders, who will buy more renminbi, resulting in it appreciating, which will result in the PBOC printing even more renminbi to buy foreign currency in order to maintain it's weakness, and the cycle starts anew.

    2. Loss of purchasing power, since imports of raw materials such as iron ore and coal become more expensive due to the weak renminbi, which will cause...

    3. Eventual collapse, as China will continue to depreciate its currency and raise interest rates, which will result in China being unable to import necessary raw materials and businesses will be unable to obtain credit, which will be devastating for it's main industries and it's people.

    China needs to let it's currency appreciate, and develop its domestic businesses. Otherwise, it will collapse.
     
  2. Are you based in China or have chinese ancestry to understand the Chinese cultures, moers, history well?

    Can you check what economic policies China adopted that allowed it to lift more than 300 000 000 ( 300 millions) people out of poverty within 10 years. I am really curious to undertsand how they did that.
     
  3. TSLexi

    TSLexi

    Look up Den Xiaoping's market reforms.
     
  4. If china collapse, then US can be the real boss. At the moment china think they are boss because they have the longest running civilisation. They won't listen to anyone if they think they are big boss.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2014
  5. Ok cool. Thanks a lot for the info!
    I have always wondered how on earth they managed that.
     
    TSLexi likes this.
  6. Why does China need to collapse for the US to be boss : the US is boss , see all the US military bases in the w-o-r-l-d.
    I do not think China think they are boss : China is still a very poor country, they have masses of poor paysans they are trying to raise out of poverty.

    I did not know China has the longest running civilisation : any videos / docs so that I can educate myself.

    Why do you think China will not listen if they are big boss?
     
  7. TSLexi

    TSLexi

    People act like us owing money to China is a bad thing for us. No, it's a good thing. The reason China buys our Treasuries is to prop up our currency against theirs, so they can continue to provide us with cheap imports. If we were to pay that debt off, the renminbi would appreciate, which would devastate their economy.
     
  8. TSLexi

    TSLexi

    China is so old that they have found Roman coins there. China is the oldest continuously existing country in the world after Iran.

    China has always been a nation turmoiled in bloody civil war when it didn't have a strong national leader. If the current government fails...
     
  9. US can't even beat taleban. So military power means nothing. China is boss because they are senior in terms of civilisation. They have defeated all comers.
     
  10. TSLexi

    TSLexi

    China is completely dependent on us buying their exports to survive. If we either stop buying stuff from them or their currency appreciates, they're dead in the water.
     
    #10     Nov 21, 2014