Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

There are pure TA traders and Pure fundies. From experience, I can't see how them two can mix. You can use fundamentals to avoid certain days, where there is too much fear going on, but thats it. And with TA, you have your entry point and you just enter those no matter what.

With fundamental A you can't use triangles and stuff like that, because you need to enter earlier when the liquidity is there.

 

Good questions that royally describes the current confusion in the statistics filed.

Sure you can get a trend tossing a coin. What is that? Isn't that a trend? Isn't that trend generated by a random process? What is the difference between a trend generated by a random process and a deterministic trend?

 

There is no difference between a computer generated trend and trends we know from markets. In fact, they look identical.

 

Here is the point.
Can I tade a "trend" generated by tossing a coin with TA?
Then a second question is which trend I can trade and which not?

 

True but you are missing the point completely.

 

(1) Yes, but your decision will be also random
(2) 7 million $ question

 

Without reading the whole thread, I would say that so long as you have a specific definition of what a trend is, i.e. what are its quantitative attributes, you will see them in the market. You will also see them in randomly-generated data when that data shares those attributes.

Once you find a quantitative definition of a trend which you can regularly exploit profitably, trade-wise, you will always have trading opportunities. If the definition is generic enough, you can apply it to multiple markets and increase the number of opportunities. As long as you only trade when those quantitative criteria are satisfied, you give yourself a chance at winning the game.

The biggest hurdle, obviously, is finding that quantitative definition because it's difficult to know where to even start to look.

 

Tracking 2 std dev's is just scratching the surface in statistical analysis. This is the program I completed and it goes waaaaaay past measuring how far a data set is moving from the mean.

http://www.iit.edu/mathematical_finance/academics/index.shtml#program_requirements

 

its hindsight bias... but for the fact I traded using t/a during that time period and made over 6 figures a year doing it with t/a.

 

I was just giving an example that stats can be represented in t/a.
I would I have liked to have taken that course.