Any rally is going to be heavily sold by unhedged producers and any short-term supply issue can be easily met by drawing down the record inventory. Like I sad, I would be shocked to see it, but it could happen. I'm in the camp that says we will see below $40 before above $60.
Sounds nice in theory, but why didn't the same thing happen the last time prices were at this level? I think prices are too low and I also know both from experience and theory that prices can go up a lot faster than most people think. There tends to be panic both when prices fall, but also when prices start going up. Your opinion is a fair one and you may very well be right. I just don't think that as a trader, you should be shocked to see WTI trade $10 higher from here. It's certainly a scenario you should be able to see happen. Anyway, should be fun to see what happens from here.
I use the term shocked because I would be surprised to see any rally not immediately sold by physical traders, banks, and producers based solely on the fundamental picture. The general sentiment among that crowd is decidedly bearish in the short (M1-M3) and medium term (M3-M9). I would expect the back of the curve to have a solid bid, but the front "should" get offered pretty aggressively.
something is very simple that when supply is higher than the demand quantity of the product then the prices simply lower so the happening of oil is not different like see in the late 2014 the world oil supply was on way to rise much higher than actual demand. demand is lower so lot of unused oil is being stocked away for later so price is begin falling sharply.
But is it not also true that bearish sentiment tends to be the highest around a bottom? Further, is it a fair assumption that the price of oil is actually set by fundamentals? Even from a fundamental perspective, I'm not convinced that the price of oil is low. What the talking heads and experts say is not something I would trust. Even those in the know, may say something different publicly than what they really know to be true.
%%%%%%%%%%%%% YesJSP, but he finally got one right in 5 or 6 years also.LOL He finally went after BAC; another losing lawsuit for BAC ......................................................................................................................................................................LOL Still strange in west TN unleaded gas seems stuck for the past 5-7 days on $1.96 & 9/10,@BP....... + most all the gasoline stations. Citgo is $1.89 &9/10. My TN county does tend to have cheap gasoline, plenty of lower bids, retail anyway.Walmart gives a cash card discount of 3cents off that.Marathon Oil station is $1 99& 9/10 but that price has been that for 5-7 days also despite a weekly uptrend in unleaded wholesale gasoline