What to expect after making 24% for a hedge fund co on their platform in less than ONE month

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by ALEXGOLD, Apr 25, 2015.

  1. Yes, I DO "get it." What was the "predefined pattern" that led you to believe AMZN would gap up 65 points? Did you make a comprehensive fundamental spreadsheet analysis based on earnings expectations that would justify the post-earnings valuation? In other words, what was your conviction to place such a concentrated bet on a single position?

    Ok, so you thought you were going to get 8% and it ended up much more, which as you claimed was "some luck eventually."

    What I wrote was you have to predict the exact move in after hours on a momentum stock over earnings such as AMZN, and it's always going to be after the fact hindsight 20/20. Some analysts are very good and can game the quarter, and thus the hedge funds make those type of bets.
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2015
    #21     Apr 28, 2015
  2. That's a nice chart, with a good volume spike to justify a buy point. However, it's not the same as AMZN, which you held over an earnings move, and which GAPPED in after hours, which is something not in your control.

    I actually bought GLD on the prior move off when it retested close to the November 2014 low, on March 17th. I sold it on March 25th for a quick gain.

    Look, I'm not downplaying your 24% gain, it's quite impressive. I think you have to consider the ramifications of making such a concentrated bet in a single position, especially over the number, that's all.
     
    #22     Apr 28, 2015
  3. ALEXGOLD

    ALEXGOLD

    With every stock I am starting to analyze, I expect nothing. So only after combining all data it is clear what to do. AMZN had just a good potential as to buy and hold stock, but it happened just in one moment. I was sure that having two entry points I was on the safe side. Scenarios have adjusted for market uncertainty in a way.

    this is AMZN for May (partial scenario, full is available at the links), check it out: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...ess-than-one-month.291091/page-2#post-4115619

    We all can see what will happen to it.
     
    #23     Apr 28, 2015
  4. Look at what happened to TWTR, down almost 20% in after hours, and will open down tomorrow with a huge gap due to earnings. If a fund made a concentrated bet long over the number, then the result will speak for itself at tomorrow's open. This is why taking a large percentage of a portfolio and holding for the number on a momentum stock is dangerous.
     
    #24     Apr 29, 2015
  5. ALEXGOLD

    ALEXGOLD

    I will produce price curve prediction for TWTR for May and make it available. check soon.
     
    #25     Apr 29, 2015
  6. ALEXGOLD

    ALEXGOLD

    #26     Apr 29, 2015
  7. Track records are meaningless in the hedge fund world. You need a strategy that makes sense going into the future---

    No interest in this type of trading. I doubt anyone will show interest. My suggestion would be to sell advice or just trade small naive investors monies. Maybe try collective 2. Sorry, but it just doesnt make sense and you are on the wrong track. surf
     
    #27     Apr 29, 2015

  8. good link
     
    #28     Apr 29, 2015
  9. Fundlord

    Fundlord

    @ALEXGOLD

    Is this your personal trading account ? or in a actual hedge fund structure or at least hedge fund incubator structure ?

    If you really did work at a bank trading equities for 7 years, you should have many contacts and people who believe in you to invest $.

    I hear stories of people leaving banks, hedge funds and raising 9 figures before opening their fund.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2015
    #29     Apr 29, 2015
  10. "What to expect after making 24% for a hedge fund co on their platform in less than ONE month"

    ...why do you need anybody when you're that awesome? just build your own portfolio on your own...and spend your free time driving Ferrari's and yachts and entertaining women. o_O
     
    #30     Apr 30, 2015