That is not the meaning of what this great trend follower says, imo: "A trend is a general drift or tendency in a set of data. All measurements of trend involve taking a current reading and a historical reading and comparing them. If the current reading is higher than the historical reading, we have an up-trend. If lower, we have a down-trend. In the improbable event of an exact match, we have a sideways trend ... There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are necessarily projecting our own definitions. With that in mind, we can proceed to examine ways to define, compute and use trends." Ed Seykota, from the very same web page marketsurfer from which selectively quotes above. Your interpretation, no doubt, originates in his phrase "When we speak of trends we are necessarily projecting our own definitions." However, accepting that this is so is, imo, a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for one being able successfully to understand, use, and profit from technical analysis. And any technical analyst who does accept the degree to which we are projecting our own definitions and constructs onto the market will happily agree that though one identifies a trend from price level A to price level B, that the analyst can with no certainty say that price will therefore continue to price level C. That is why we use stop losses. Or, as Ed Seykota says, "The trend is your friend except at the end when it bends." Indeed.
LOL! My mentors are proven $100 million plus traders and you expect me to be "embarrassed" and to listen to your facts. Give me a break.
Agreed. What Seykota said was basically that trend measurement depends on past data. To which I say "So what?" As stated elsewhere, footprints are entirely historical yet they are still very effective tools for tracking game animals (future targets). Trends can be very effective tools for determining where price is going if they are measured correctly. My issue with Seykota is his two-point measurement of trend. That's too limiting IMO.
No, surf, I really don't expect you to listen to facts. You have demonstrated yourself to be quite fact-immune. Carry on.
From Marketsurfer, Feb 9, this year, just before the Dow rose 600pts: A Stock Collapse Now We were super bullish from 2010 to 2015. In fact, in over 20 years of active trading and market study, we have never seen such a more clearly defined bull market in stocks. The financial crisis of 2009 cleaned out all the excesses of an over accelerated financial culture. This cleansing of the system allowed the stock market and many individuals to start fresh financial lives. [note the trendline] Starting in 2015, things have started to change. The stock market has become overheated and it’s time for a correction. The Fed will be forced to start increasing interest rates which in turn will knock stocks off the rally, for one thing. In addition, oils plunge combined with the European economic uncertainty add another level of uncertainty to the stock market. There is nothing the stock market hates more than uncertainty. We are certain that massive economic uncertainty is headed our way in 2015. Our proprietary macro Price Driver system is consistently reading sub 3 on the 1-10 scale of bearish to bullish. We take this reading very seriously and fully believe the bull market is about to reverse. Meanwhile, companies have been forced to consistently outperform year after year during the bullish run higher. This can not last forever and will soon come to a screeching halt. [note the indicators AND the trendline] Make no mistake about it, there may be some more upside prior to the meltdown in the major indexes. We will be monitoring the situation and will let you know when we believe the selling has started. With this said, there are always stocks that are about to collapse. Our proprietary screening system identifies these companies so that you can profit from the plunge. Every week, we will bring you five names that are ready to implode so you can earn downside profits or protect your portfolio from the drop. And now of course MS is extremely bullish and has gone long. Double. If he knew anything of Auction Market Theory, he wouldn't have made the first mistake and would not have required "price drivers" to go long last week. A real giant. In his own mind.
I think you might find it makes perfect sense once you are able to consider it with the negative influence of market surfer removed.
That's called marketing-- TA is great for description as are "trends" for the past. In real time decision making, they are meaningless. Note---"Make no mistake about it, there may be some more upside prior to the meltdown in the major indexes. We will be monitoring the situation and will let you know when we believe the selling has started." You should join the subscription list if you have the wherewithal--- the Drivers are on FIRE! surf
Yep. That's what it is, folks. Marketing. And even though "trends" are meaningless for "real time decision making", he nonetheless uses them. With indicators. As for "some" upside. 600 points? And when exactly did you let us know when you believed the selling had started? I'm sure I missed it. And if the market is in danger of imminent collapse, why all the bullishness? Anyone who takes you seriously runs serious risk of whiplash.