Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 19 - 23, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument has been bearish since last week. From a high of 1.3993, the price dropped by over 340 pips, reaching the support line at 1.3650. The support line has brought about a temporary halt in the bearish journey. This halt resulted in an upward bounce that has taken the price above the support line at 1.3700. The support line at 1.3750 should act as a barrier to further rally in the context of a downtrend. The bearish journey is supposed to continue when the price breaks the support line at 1.3650 to the downside, targeting another support line at 1.3550.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The current upward move has been the strongest trending move on the USD/CHF since April 2014. From a low of 0.8700, the price skyrocketed by over 250 pips, topping at the resistance level of 0.8950. There has been a short-term pullback which has been challenged at the support level of 0.8900. In case of more determined bears’ machination, the pullback could also be challenged at the support level of 0.8850. Generally the price ought to go further upwards, breaking the resistance level at 0.8950 to the upside as it goes towards another target at the resistance level at 0.9050.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The pair gave way to gravity as well: it went down toward the accumulation territory at 1.6750 before the price experienced some shallow rally. The rally is seen as a temporary thing in the context of a downtrend. It is something that allows the bears to sell short at a better price. The next target is at another accumulation territory of 1.6650, which could be reached within the next several trading days.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a confirmed bearish outlook on this market, though the bearish run is not as strong as other JPY pairs. There is also a recalcitrant demand level at 101.50. This demand level has succeeded in rejecting further bearish move – it did that last week and this week. The price needs to breach the demand level to the downside and close below it, for the bearish outlook to continue o be valid.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross is in a downtrend and it is currently challenging the demand zone at 139.00. The demand zone has a high probability of being breached to the downside. When this happens, the price could target another demand zone at 138.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“With the changes in the perception of Forex trading from being a high speed, high risk gamble, to being a scientifically driven investment vehicle, supported by social media, there are likely to be many more Forex traders in the coming years.” - Razi Hammouda

 

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The dominant bias on the EUR/USD has been bearish for most part of this month. However, the adamant and obdurate support line at 1.3650 has been a major headache to the bears. As a result of this, the southward journey has been limited, e.g. the market has only moved down by 55 pips this week. The expectation is: the support line has to be broken to the downside so that the bearish journey can continue. Should the support line get broken to the downside, the next price targets could be the support lines at 1.3600 and 1.3550.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The dominant bias on the USD/CHF has been bullish for most part of this month. Nevertheless, the recalcitrant and obstinate resistance level at 0.8950 has been a major problem to the bulls. As a result of this, the northward journey has been limited, e.g. the market has only moved up by 42 pips this week. The expectation is: the resistance level has to be broken to the upside so that the bullish journey can continue. Should the resistance level get broken to the upside, the next price targets could be resistance levels at 0.9000 and 0.9050.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
From the accumulation territory at 1.6750, the price has moved upwards by over 150 pips. The price is currently challenging the distribution territory at 1.6900 – a vigorous challenge indeed! The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart ensures that the current bearish retracement remains shallow and another opportunity to buy long during such retracement.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the overall bias on this pair is bearish, there is a serious challenge to the bias. The price has closed above the demand level at 101.50, but it needs to close below it so that the bearish bias might continue. In fact, the price also needs to breach the demand level at 101.00 to the downside and continue its journey further downwards. On the other hand, a movement above the supply level at 102.00 would mean a serious jeopardy to the bearish bias, especially when the price closes above it.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument remains weak. One reason for this is the weakness in the EUR itself. The southward moved has been slow and tardy; and there is a need for the price to breach the demand zone at 138.50 to the downside so that the southward journey can continue.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“It is possible to make it big in trading if one has a clear idea of direction, degree, and timing. One must know when to buy, when to sell, and when to stay out of the market.” - Roy Longstreet

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 2 - 6, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market has been moving downwards in a slow and tardy manner. Since early May 2014, the downward move that begun has taken the market down by over 380 pips. With the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is rational to expect that the downward move could continue, although the possibility of a transitory rally cannot be ruled out on the way. The support line at 1.3500 is our target for the next week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument has been caught in a slow and tardy mode also. After the ‘buy’ signal was generated earlier in the month of May 2014, the price has moved upwards by over 270 pips. Now, the possibility of the price moving higher cannot be ruled out, for the northward bias has been established. There could, nevertheless, be some pullbacks in the market along the way, but they ought not to take the price below the support levels at 0.8950 and 0.8900. Any movement below the support levels (especially the latter one) would mean the end of the northward bias. In the meantime, the price may trudge towards our target at the resistance level of 0.9000. It may even break it to the upside and move towards another resistance level at 0.9050.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Cable gave a spurious ‘buy’ signal last week. Because the price was unable to move higher and break the accumulation territory at 1.6900 to the upside, the Cable skydived and tested the accumulation territory at 1.6700. The ‘sell’ signal in the market has been confirmed: the price could continue trading lower, with the probability of reaching another accumulation territory at 1.6650.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a difficult market – a market in which false breakouts are no longer a curiosity. In addition, sustained trending moves are rather rare. Unless one is scalping or speculating on intraday basis, one may think of getting out of the market until a determined movement occurs. When it does occur, it is more probable that the price would go lower.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since early May 2014, the cross has gone down by close to 400 pips. The bearish outlook is still valid and may continue till next week, reaching a target at 137.00. It is rational to sell the cross on rallies.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“The key word here is patience. If you're using the correct strategies, you can be sure that [a] bad run will end, it’s only a matter of time.” - Marcus de Maria

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 9 - 13, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair recently managed to test the support line at 1.3500 (or the price almost touched the support line). The movement of the price around the support line could not be sustained because the price bounced upwards seriously, reaching the resistance line at 1.6350. The price has succeeded in closing above the resistance line – something the poses a serious challenge to the bearish scenario. A close above the resistance line at 1.3700 would mean a successful challenge to the bearish scenario, which in turn would mean the start of a confirmed uptrend. On the other hand, should the price fail to close above the resistance line at 1.3700, it could be assumed that the bearish run would resume.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition affecting this currency trading instrument is similar to that of the EURUSD, except in the opposite manner. The price tested the resistance level at 0.9000, but pulled back significantly. Yes, the pullback is significant enough to pose a threat to the recent bullish outlook; plus a close below the support level at 0.8900 would render the bullish outlook completely useless.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bullish attempt in this market is noteworthy enough to make long trades sensible in the market. When this forecast was being prepared, the price was trading above the accumulation territory at 1.6800. The price could reach the distribution territories at 1.6850 and 1.6900 within the next several trading days. In fact, this could be faster than imagine when the Greenback suddenly gets weakened further.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although the price is currently experiencing some bullish retracement, it is still safe to assume that the bullish bias in the market is valid. The bullish bias can only be rendered useless when the price drops below the demand level at 102.00 and the demand level at 101.50. A movement above the supply level at 103.00 (even a test of it) would result in a renewed confirmation of the bullish bias.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the cross, which would even be more formidable when the price closes above the supply zone 140.00: an easy target. The medium-term target for the next week is at the supply zone of 141.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“I suggest long-term traders make it a daily, or even weekly, habit to check on their trades. That way, you can stay on top of things without worrying about the false idol of overnight results.” – Joe Ross

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 16 - 20, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
In a slow and tardy manner, this pair has been trending downwards. The movement is tardy because consolidation phases can be perceived in the market; yet it can also be clearly seen that the bears dominate the market. There is a shallow rally at the moment, which ought to be contained at the resistance lines of 1.3600 and 1.3650 respectively. This is necessary for the bearish trend to continue, because any movement above the resistance line would mean the end of the bearish bias.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
It is expected that this currency trading instrument close above the strong psychological resistance level at 0.9000. This is a must – for the bullish outlook to continue to be valid. The market breached the resistance level several times this week and last week, but it is was unable to stay above it. This inability to close above the resistance line or go southward has led to a recent sideways movement. This is what would happen eventually: should the price fail to close above the resistance level at 0.9000 and go further towards the resistance level at 0.9050, another strong bearish bias would start. The USD may not reach parity with the CHF as soon as we think.


GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
There has been a significant upwards surge on this market. The price was bullish last week, and it experienced serious volatility earlier this week. From the accumulation territory at 1.6750, the Cable rallied by more than 240 pips. The distribution territory at 1.7000 is thus an easy target. This is a great psychological zone, and should the price succeeded in closing above it, the next target would be the accumulation territory at 1.7100. However the possibilities of pullbacks along the way cannot be ruled out.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD/JPY has become bearish, going downwards from the supply level 102.50. The current rally in the price may be another opportunity to sell short; provided the rally does not take the price above the supply level at 102.50. Should the price go further southward, it might reach the demand levels at 101.50 and 101.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is also a bear market. The price has bounced up from the demand zone at 138.00, but this is supposed to be limited. The price may soon fall downwards again, testing that support zone, even breaking it to the downside.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“Sometimes we needed a little bit of luck, but if we followed the strategy, we were more likely to come out on top.” – Lee Sandford

 

are these forecasts good ?

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 23 - 27, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Within the last few weeks, the EUR/USD broke below the support line at 1.3550, but it was unable to stay below it. Eventually, the price rose seriously, closing above the support line at 1.3600. This price action has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, and the price is expected to go more northward. The aforementioned support line would serve as a challenge to any possible bearish plunge along the way.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
After a long desperate siege at the resistance level of 0.9000 (which is a great psychological level) and desperate battle between the bulls and the bears, the bulls gave way and the price plunged smoothly. The plunge has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This means that it is no longer logical to place long trades in this market. It is possible that the price would continue to go southward, eventually reaching the support level at 0.8850. One important thing must be noted: the possibility of the price going further southward is stronger than the possibility of the price going northwards. Therefore, any rallies – no matter how strong - would meet a recalcitrant challenge at the resistance level of 0.9000. At that level, the bullish soldiers fought cut-throat battle but suffered heavy losses, so it would continue to act as an impediment to the bulls’ wish.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Unlike the USD/CHF which failed to break the resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside after a long siege, the Cable was successful in breaking the accumulation territory at 1.7000 to the upside. It closed above that territory and moved further upwards, testing the distribution territory at 1.7050. The distribution territory is an easy target that would be breached to the upside, paving way for more northward movement.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market is bullish, but the bulls’ strength is constantly challenged. In fact, the market needs to stay above the demand level at 101.50 for the bullish bias to continue to be valid. Otherwise, the already weak bullish bias would be rendered totally invalid. In order for the bias to be relevant, the market needs to go further upwards, breaking the supply level at 102.50 to the upside, and closing above it.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since last Monday, this cross has been rejecting bearish pulls on it. The successful rejection has resulted in a bullish signal in the market. As long as the price stays above the demand zone at 138.50, the bullish signal would make sense.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Performance is more about me than my system.” – Adam Jowett

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 30 – July 4, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is now in an uptrend, though the movement is tardy and shaky. The price has been very volatile as the bulls and the bears fight for control. As a result of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is more likely that the pair would go further upwards. The resistance line at 1.3650 was tested and it could be tested again. It could even be breached to the upside.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD/CHF has also been slow and tardy, but bearish in outlook. So far, the market has been able to maintain its bearish bias, going lower in a slow and steady manner. This downward move is also riddled with high volatility. Since the sellers have supremacy here, there is a possibility that the price may reach the support level at 0.8900.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Here, the barrier to further northward movement remains the distribution territory at 1.7050. The distribution territory was tested last week vigorously. It was tested this week as well; and up till now the price is yet to close above it. After suffering a transient setback, the price is now trying to go upwards to challenge the distribution territory again, which must be broken eventually, for the bullish outlook to hold onto its validity.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
On the USD/JPY, it is advised that short-term orders should be considered rather than long-term ones. This is because the recent signals have been short-lived. Right now, there is a bearish indication in the market: it makes sense to seek short trades.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent ‘buy’ signal on this cross was weak and unsustainable. The bias has turned bearish because of the perceived strength in the Yen. The EUR’s position is too delicate, and this is quickly reflected in its weakness against the Yen. The price tested the demand zone at 138.00; and with renewed bearish effort, it could go lower to test the demand zone at 137.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“It is the sum of all trades that is relevant for the trading result, not the single trade.” – Jens Klatt

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 7 - 11, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent bias on this pair was bullish, but everything has now gone bearish. It is no longer sensible to seek long trades on this pair because it has failed to break the resistance line at 1.3700 to the upside. In addition, the price has dived by almost 100 pips, trading below the resistance line at 1.3650. The support line at 1.3600 is currently being tested and there is a high probability that it could easily be breached to the downside. Should this become possible, the price may go further downwards to the support line at 1.3550.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
It should be noted that, although the dominant bias on this currency trading instrument is bearish, the price has been making serious bullish attempts. The bullish attempts are so strong that they threaten the bearish bias. For the bearish bias not to become completely invalid, the rally would need to be rejected at the resistance level of 0.8950. Any movement above that resistance level would render the bearish bias completely invalid, since things would have turned seriously bullish by then. However, it is not likely that the price would be able to cross the great resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside in the long run.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market has been able to remain bullish, breaking one distribution territory after the other. The price territory at 1.7150 was breached to the upside after much struggle and hesitation which lasted for a few days. The price is now poised to move further upwards, and it may reach another distribution territory at 1.7200 next week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The USD/JPY is bullish, although there is now some southward correction in the market. The southward correction cannot render the bullish outlook useless, as long as it does not take the price below the demand level at 101.50. Any movement below the aforementioned demand level would result in clean bearish outlook.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition on this cross is very delicate, and one may do well to stay out of the market until there is a convincing directional movement. The price is bullish but the sudden weakness in the EUR makes it illogical to seek long trades at the present. The possibility of the price testing the demand zone at 138.50 cannot be ruled out.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“You want to be paid to trade. Winnings are your payment for taking risk.” – Jos Ross

 

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the EUR/USD remains a weak pair, the direction on it has not been significantly bearish (neither has the price been able to go upwards significantly). However, this kind if market is great for scalpers and intraday traders, but not for swing and position traders. Before the bias can be termed as bullish, the price would need to break the resistance line at 1.3650 to the upside - therefore rendering the bearish bias invalid – or the price may break the support line at 1.3600, therefore adding to the bearish strength. Until then, swing traders may stay aside.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition affecting this pair is similar to that of the EUR/USD. The bias is bullish but it is very weak. In fact, a movement below the support level at 0.8900 would render the bullish bias invalid, and therefore, for the bias to continue to make sense, the price needs to break the resistance level at 0.8950 to the upside. It should, however, be noted that the price would find it very difficult to breach the great resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable remains logical. The pause in the upward journey has resulted in a clean sideways movement, after which the upward bias could continue. The bulls have so far refused to allow the price to be pushed seriously. When the bullish momentum returns to the market, the distribution territory at 1.7150 would be breached to the upside, but it is important that the price is able to remain above that territory. Should the price breach the accumulation territories at 1.7100 and 1.7050 to the downside respectively, then the bullish outlook would become illogical.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market, and the USD/JPY is supposed to continue going further downwards. This would not be without challenges, since the bulls also would be making effort to push the price upwards. The demand level at 101.00 could be tested; and it would require more bearish effort to violate the demand level, closing below it.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross is weak: a result of the weakness in the EUR and the strength in the JPY. The downward movement could continue, making the price to reach the demand zone at 137.00. Meanwhile, the supply level at 138.50 ought to be an impediment to possible rallies along the way.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I am absolutely satisfied with the markets being my line of work, because it is always interesting and there are constantly new challenging scenarios that need to be analyzed.” – Martin Pring