Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 10 - 14, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The weakness in the USD and the stamina in the EUR have caused the price of the EURUSD to result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The price would continue going further upwards - though not without the possibilities of occasional pullbacks. The strong psychological resistance line at 1.4000 is now the medium-term target for the bulls.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
From the previous support level at 0.8800, this currency trading instrument rallied and topped at 0.8894. At that time, the price action nearly resulted in a ‘buy’ signal (which proved to be bogus). Cautious traders would normally wait for an establishment of the bullish outlook before seeking long orders. The ‘waiting’ would have spared them a real surprise because a sudden weakness in the USD caused the price to drop like a stone, slashing though the previous support level at 0.8800, and closing below it. The support level at 0.8700 has thus become an easy target for the bears.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
In the last forecast, it was said that the bullish signal on the Cable was still valid in spite of the then consolidation and occasional southward pulls on the price. Well, the price has been able to reject further southward pull and has started rising gradually. The bulls’ strength is not very significant but their domination is clear. It is possible for the price to continue going further upwards.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
On smaller timeframes, one would see that most JPY opened on March 2, 2014 with minor gaps. When those gaps were seen, it was immediately perceived that there would be significant movements on the JPY pairs during the week. That is exactly what has happened. Starting from March 4, 2014, the exponential weakness in the Yen caused all the JPY pairs to skyrocket by an average of 300 pips within 3 days! The USD/JPY is part of this drama and it is now around the market level at 103.00. There may be pullbacks along the way, but the pair would continue going further upwards, possibly reaching the supply level at 104.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
From a weekly low of 139.14, this cross was able to shoot skyward, reaching the supply zone at 143.00. This movement is noteworthy indeed and the price is expected to continue going upwards, punctuated by some transient periods when the price would be on sale.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The markets are going to reflect the conditions and circumstances that are present in the order flow; and, you’ll want to accept the reality of the charts rather than assume that the reality will change merely because you want it to.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 17 - 21, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is a bull market irrespective of the recent pullback on it. The pullback is just a good opportunity to go long when the price is on sale and in the context of an uptrend. Our target remains at the resistance line of 1.4000. Only a situation in which the price is below the support line at 1.3800 could render the bullish outlook invalid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since early February 2014, there has been a bearish signal in this market and the price has been going downwards in a slow and steady way. The price has gone down by around 350 pips; while rallies in the price have tended to proffer short-selling opportunities. The support level at 0.8700 has been tested and would be tested again. It could even be breached to the downside as the selling pressure becomes intense again.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since February 17, 2014, the Cable has generally been in an equilibrium phase. Bullish and bearish signals tend to be short-lived, and therefore, intraday trading strategies are recommended. Right now, the market is showing some lack of stamina, and one could look forward to going short at 1.6650, targeting the accumulation territory at 1.6550.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
All the JPY pairs have experienced sharp drops in the prices. This is in contrast to the significant uptrends that occurred last week. You see, when the Yen became very weak, the USD, the EUR, the GBP, the AUD, the CAD, the CHF and the NZD rose significantly against it. When it is now very strong, those currencies drop against it. Since the Yen is a counter-cyclical currency, the economic issues in Japan would only strengthen the currency. The USD/JPY fell by close to 180 pips, testing the demand level at 101.50 before the price bounced upwards. The upward bounce is deemed as being temporary, for that demand level could be tested again and breached, as the price goes further downwards.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has recently dropped by over 250 pips, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The supply zone at 142.00 is now a barrier to any sustainable rally in the market. The demand zone at 140.00 is a sensible target for the astute bears. The possibility exists that the price could even fall below that demand zone.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Nowadays I take great comfort in knowing that I really know nothing about what the market will or could do. I just play the odds in favor as best I can, get out when I am wrong and stick with it when I am right. The market will always do what the market wants to do anyway.” – Sam Evans

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 24 - 28, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
It should be noted that the surge of strength in the Greenback has resulted in new dominant biases in the markets. This pair has been forced to show a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on it (the GBP/USD has also gone bearish), while the USD/CHF has been showing some stable stamina. This pair has been trading below the resistance line at 1.3800, going towards the support line at 1.3700, which is our target for next week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Recently, this pair was in a constant, slow and steady bearish run, but the current strength in the Greenback has changed the situation. There is now an established bullish signal on the pair, and the price is trading above the support level at 0.8800. The ultimate target is at the resistance level of 0.8900; which may even be breached to the upside, provided that the buying pressure in the market is constant and strong enough.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The Cable was in an equilibrium phase for a few weeks before the current breakout to the downside came into effect. It was normally expected that the price would relentlessly pursue the direction it took when it finally broke out. When the Cable broke out of the equilibrium phase, it was towards the south. Since then, the price has plummeted by over 150 pips. The bearish pressure is currently strong and the price may end up testing the accumulation territory at 1.6400.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The condition on the USD/JPY brought about a bogus bullish signal some days ago. Later the strength of the JPY pair has proven too much for the pair to maintain its bullish stance, thus making it difficult for the market to continue going further upwards. That rally has even proven to be an excellent bearish signal. Should the market close below the price level at 102.00, it would be easier for it to accelerate towards the demand level at 101.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
On March 17, 2014, there was a bullish attempt in the context of a downtrend. It simply turned out that the bullish attempt was an opportunity to sell short: from a weekly high of 141.96, the price on the cross has dropped to test the demand zone at 140.50, which could eventually be breached to the downside, as the price goes further bearish.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“It’s always about the long-term chance of making money by trading – not every day and not even every week either but every year.” – Bill Hubard

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 31 – April 4, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market: the Euro weakness is clearly noticeable. With the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is normally expected that the trend would continue going downwards, breaking the support line at 1.3700, and reaching the ultimate target at 1.3650. The expectation does not rule out the possibilities of normal rallies (which should be short-term in nature). For now, only short trades ought to be sought.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the ‘buy’ signal has been formed on the USD/CHF, it has been able to maintain that signal. The recent week has been bullish so far; plus the price could reach the resistance level at 0.8900, and then possibly breaking it to the upside, as the price trends further northwards. The support levels at 0.8850 and 0.8800 should check any transitory southward attempts along the way. As long as the price is above the aforementioned support levels, the bullish bias is valid.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
There has been a clean bullish signal on the Cable, owing to a recent surge of stamina in it. The bullish signal is still relatively new, and each pullback would invariably proffer a new chance to go long. The Cable has the possibility of reaching the distribution territories at 1.6700 and 1.6750. The signal would be deemed as being valid as long as the price stays above the accumulation territory at 1.6600.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since this market had been trading largely sideways, only scalping or intraday trading methods are recommended for now. There could be a serious breakout at any moment, and there is a possibility that the price would go further downwards when the breakout does occur (as indicated by the current price action). Meanwhile, scalpers and intraday traders may want to go long at the demand level of 102.00 and go short at the supply level of 102.50, either the former or the latter being a stop loss/target area, depending on whether the order is long or short.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
A look at other JPY pairs reveals that some of them are moving upwards. So the inability of this cross to move upwards suggests that the Euro is very week indeed (the same reason why the EUR/USD is weak while the GBP/USD is strong, although they are normally correlated positively). One may, however, want to enter a short trade here, targeting the demand zones at 104.00 and 139.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“Some of the greatest and most profitable trading and investing strategies tend to be the most simple you could find. In the world of market speculation, complex very rarely equates to more profitable.” – Sam Evans

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 7 - 11, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The pair has remained bearish recently, going downwards slowly and steadily. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and with the continuation of the selling pressure, the price would easily test the support line at 1.3650. Should that support line be breached to the downside, the next target would be the support line at 1.3600. The resistance lines at 1.3750 and 1.3800 should act as good barriers to any possible rallies.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since March 20, 2014, there has been a bullish signal on this currency trading instrument, plus the price has moved upwards by over 150 pips. The confirmed bullish bias is expected to continue, especially with an increase in the stamina in the USD. The market may reach the resistance level at 0.8950. It should be noted that the resistance level has already been tested: the market would test it again and possibly breach it to the upside.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
It has been noted that the GBP has been weak against some major currencies, so it is not a surprise that it has assumed a bearish outlook against the USD. The previous flat movement in the price has resulted in a bearish run. The market is now trading below the distribution territory at 1.6600, which means that the price could go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6500. This is our target for the week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since March 21, a bullish run has been expected in the market. This market really went up and tested the supply level at 104.00 rigorously, but it failed to slash it to the upside and close above it. Historically, the bullish signal could go on till the April 10, 2014. Right now, there is a bearish correction in the chart. The correction would be seen as a good chance to buy long, provided it does not push the price below the demand level at 103.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Just as the USDJPY and other JPY pairs are doing, this cross has generally been bullish. The possibility of corrections cannot be ruled out; for prices do not move in straight lines. However, the current southward correction in the market is strong enough to threaten the established bullish bias. The bullish bias is deemed to be valid as long as the price is able to stay above the demand zone at 141.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:



“Have you noticed that the hardest trades to take emotionally often turn out to be the best trades?” – Sam Seiden

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 14 - 18, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair rejected the recent southward pull on it, trended upwards and resulted in a confirmed bullish bias. From the support line at 1.3700, this market has moved upwards and it could test the resistance line at 1.3950. Testing the resistance line at 1.4000 also is not an impossibility, for the trend has a probability of continuation rather than that of a reversal. Along the way there could be some pullbacks before the pair reaches the aforementioned targets.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD/CHF has been weak so far – that is the latest development in the market. The strength in the EUR/USD is pushing the USDCHF downwards, for they must go into negative correlation with each other, especially when there are significant moves in the markets. As long as the EUR/USD is strong, the USD/CHF pair will continue its weakness; it could reach the support level at 0.8700.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The significant rally in this currency trading instrument has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The distribution territory at 1.6800 has been challenged before the price was corrected a little. The price could go upwards again to challenge that distribution territory. It may slash through it, close above it and go further upwards towards other distribution territories at 1.6850 and 1.6950.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
It was expected that the last bullish run on this currency trading instrument would hold out till around April 10, though those who went against the Yen would have realized some gains in the latter part of March 2014. The present conspicuous weakness in the USD has resulted in an established bearish outlook. It would, therefore, make sense to seek short trades here. The market level at 101.50 has been besieged, and with an increase in the selling pressure, the market level would be violated as the prices reaches out for the market level at 101.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bias on this cross is bearish, but the trend itself has been limited in force because of the perceived strength in the EUR. The price is very volatile; plus the struggle between the bears and the bulls is intense. However, the current price action shows that there are greater odds on the side of the bears. We may want to put our target at the demand zone of 140.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The biggest mistake you can make is changing your trading style based on your previous trade or series of trades.” - Peter Brandt

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 21 - 25, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market has been moving sideways for days without going in a directional move. However, the bullish bias is still valid because the price has been able to stay above the strong support line at 1.3800. Any movement below that support line could mean the end of the bullish bias. Really, the odds of the price moving upwards are very high when momentum returns to the market. For the bulls, there are targets at the resistance line of 1.3900 and 1.3950.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the current situation on this pair can still be termed as being bearish, the situation is highly precarious. The bearish outlook is under a serious threat because the pair has been moving slowly, but steadily upwards recently. The slow and steady upward move could render the bearish outlook totally useless, especially when the price breaks the resistance level at 0.8850 to the upside and closes above it. When the price stays below the resistance level at 0.8850, the bearish outlook is valid, but when it moves above it, the bearish outlook becomes useless.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Cable is strong indeed! With the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is more likely that the price would continue going further upwards in spite of the bearish retracement that is taking place on in. The retracement is shallow, and it is not expected to go below the accumulation territory at 1.6750. For the northward trend to continue making sense, the Cable needs to go above 1.6800 again and trade further upwards. Any test of the accumulation territory at 1.6700 (though not anticipated) can mean a danger to the bulls.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
It is no longer valid to call this currency trading instrument a bear market, for there is a new ‘buy’ signal on it. It cannot be mentioned for sure whether the signal would be sustained or not, but one thing is true: a short trade does not make sense here at the present. For the past several days, the price has been making attempts to trade upwards (the bears could be slice up!); and this action is what has resulted in a bullish indication. Thus, the price could go on to test the supply levels at 103.00 and 103.50 within the next several days.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Needless to say, this cross has gone bullish and long trades ought to be sought now. The price action has formed a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and the price looks determined to challenge the supply zone at 142.00, plus another supply zone at 142.50 (providing that the buying pressure is intense enough).

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“When I started in the 70’s you could make money with a 10-day moving average. Over the years the noise has increased and you need to trade slower and slower trends.” – Perry Kaufman

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 28 – May 2, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
The overall bias on the EURUSD is neutral because the market has been in an equilibrium phase for about two weeks. While there is currently no directional bias on this pair, momentum would soon return to the market, which would cause a significant movement in one direction. The most probable directional movement could be towards the north (as confirmed by the price action). Should this happen, one may be looking at the resistance lines at 1.3850 and 1.3900 as targets for long trades.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market is bullish but the situation remains precarious. It is so precarious that a movement below the support level at 1.8800 is enough to render the bullish outlook invalid. For the outlook to continue to make sense, the price needs to rise above the resistance level at 0.8850; although the logical target for the bull is at the resistance level of 0.8900. One thing is sure: when serious momentum returns to the market, both the EURUSD and the USDCHF cannot go in the same direction, for they are negatively correlated when the trend is strong.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument is still able to maintain its bullish trend, which has been on for several weeks. Here, noteworthy pullbacks proffer opportunities to go long, provided the pullbacks do not override the dominant outlook. The price may end up reaching the distribution territory at 1.6900; it could even go beyond that if the buying pressure is strong enough. Any pullbacks along the way could be contained at the accumulation territories of 1.6750 and 1.6700.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
The recent events in the market have made it difficult for the price to go determinedly upwards. The price has also not gone determinedly downwards – hence the neutral bias. Nevertheless, momentum would soon return to the market, which would make the price break out upwards and close above the supply level at 103.00, or break below the demand level at 102.00. The possibility of the price breaking below the demand level at 102.00 is greater because of the perceived weakness in this pair.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
It can be said that this cross is also trendless, though the bullish determination can still be perceived. In spite of the struggle between the bulls and the bears, the bears have been unable to drag the price too much downwards. The support zone at 141.30 is a barrier to the bears’ interest; and when price goes out of balance, the bulls may also want to push the price above the supply zone at 142.00, and then the supply level at 142.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Well the truth is that never before in history have we been more able or have we had more tools at our disposal to fine-tune and isolate risk than at present.” – Dirk Vandycke

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 5 – 9, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
In order to generate optimal profits, some tact is required in handling the market. This is a bull market but the bias is not very strong. The tug of war between the bull and the bear has resulted in serious upswings and downswings in the price. The bullish outlook would be particularly strong when the price closes above the resistance line at 1.3900. Should this happen, would the price then go towards the resistance line at 1.4000? This is not impossibility, but time would tell.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent precarious situation of the last bullish bias has finally led to a bearish indication in this market. The fact is this: the price has proven to be unable to go upwards determinedly and therefore, it must go downwards. However, the bearish trend is not yet very strong, unless the price succeeds in crossing the support level at 0.8750 to the downside and close below it. With that, the price may then target another support level at 0.8700.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and the pair has been able to maintain it for weeks. As it was foretold last week, the price has been able to go further upwards – in a slow and tardy manner – towards the distribution territory at 1.6900. The distribution territory is under attack, since it has been tested several times. It would soon give way and the price would continue its northward journey. It may reach the distribution territory at 1.7000. This may look as impossibility, but it might happen.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This is one market that requires creative approaches to handle. This kind of current price action is suitable for scalpers and intraday traders, but it can test the patience of swing and position traders. There is no dominant bias, for the price has moved largely sideways so far. There would soon be a breakout in the market. For the expected breakout to be noteworthy here, it must either break above the supply level at 102.50 or break below the demand level 102.00. After this occurs, one may be able to take a position.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a bull market, but there is a need for it to either break above the supply zone at 142.00 or break below the demand zone at 141.50. Should the former occur, the next target would be at the supply zone of 143.00; and with the latter being fulfilled, the next target would be at the demand zone of 141.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Often best results come with the simplest strategies.” – Oscar Cuevas

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 12 – 16, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The dominant bullish bias still exists in this market, but it is seriously under threat.
The price attempt to reach the resistance line at 1.4000 failed, and the price got corrected significantly. Should price test the support line at 1.3800 or cross it to the downside, then the bullish bias would be rendered completely useless. Until that happens, it might be assumed that the price could rally i.e. if it could maintain its presence above the support level at 1.3800.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The outlook here is bearish, though the situation looks very precarious. The bulls have been very active recently: the bears have been subjugated and they need to prevent the price from remaining above the resistance level at 0.8800. The inability of the price to fall back below the aforementioned resistance level would result in the bearish outlook being rendered invalid. The invalidation would be especially strong when the price succeeds in challenging the resistance level at 0.8850.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bullish bias is still in place, but the price has been unable to cross the distribution territory at 1.7000 to the upside. In fact, the price has been consolidating to the downside for the past few days. The accumulation territories 1.6900 and 1.6850 have a job to do – they have to prevent the price from slashing though them and closing below them successively. This is the only thing that can keep the dominant bias intact. As long as the price is unable to breach those accumulation territories to the downside, it could be expected that price would rally from this point.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent equilibrium phase on this currency trading instrument has resulted in a slow southward propensity. However, the pair has met a great challenge at the demand level of 101.
50. The demand level has been tested several times, but there is a need for the price to breach it to the downside so that the southward move could continue.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The sudden weakness in the Euro has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. Short trades are currently recommended. The cross should be trading below the price zone at 140.50, as it goes towards the price zone at 140.00. On the other hand, there might be some short-term rally from the aforementioned demand level.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"People ask me when I'm going to retire, well… I actually have retired. This [trading] is the most under-worked and overpaid occupation in the world."- Chris Tate