Trading algorithm stopped working(?)

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by AlphaMale, Apr 19, 2015.

  1. d08

    d08

    Russell 2k has a fairly high correlation to ES nowadays, I think you would end up simply with higher returns coupled with equally higher drawdowns. Your best bet is to trade futures from a different country or going with something like an emerging markets ETF (much lower correlation as compared to Russell 2k). I won't mention something like energies as your edge in those probably won't work.
     
    #41     Apr 28, 2015
  2. Just my opinion but personally that raises a big red flag and strongly suggests your system is over fitted.
     
    #42     Apr 28, 2015
  3. AlphaMale

    AlphaMale

    Bummer, there went the $10m investment, anyway HTW cares about money, I'm lucky in love... :)
     
    #43     Apr 29, 2015
  4. Jarym

    Jarym

    Good luck with everything - you were smart enough to create a winning strategy for a while which is more than what most can achieve. Take a break, enjoy life and come back to it with fresh eyes - you might find a new edge :)
     
    #44     May 4, 2015
  5. AlphaMale

    AlphaMale

    Yes, it's an on-going effort and lifestyle. I already have a strategy for CSI300 which have rendered 250% annually with Sharpe ratio of 3.67 during paper trading, so I have something to look forward to at least...anyhow thanks for the kind words!
     
    #45     May 4, 2015
    d08 and Jarym like this.
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    #46     Oct 23, 2015
  7. dartmus

    dartmus

    He optimized random elements coincidentally associated with non-random elements. A fluke that can't work but labeling it over fitting perpetuates misuse of that term. An over fitted strategy is assumed to have targeted non random elements but it found a peak rather than a plateau. If we can't make the assumption a strategy targets non random elements then the difference between peak vs plateau would be moot and the term over fit wouldn't have any meaning at all.
     
    #47     Oct 23, 2015
  8. I read this message 3 times but I still don't get it. Perhaps you could explain what 'random' and 'non random' elements are? Maybe with an example?

    GAT
     
    #48     Oct 23, 2015
  9. dartmus

    dartmus

    Non random data features are the recurring logical advantages the machines perpetually embed within the data via their persistent preference for one algo over another.
     
    #49     Oct 23, 2015
  10. Sorry still don't get it. Can you give an example
     
    #50     Oct 23, 2015