Actually, that is not the bottom line. I know at least 2 who only lasted 3-4 weeks. So the bottom line would be: Traders are getting pay checks. Or even more, traders are getting FAT paychecks and/or making a living as a funded trader. I would say only half of the funded traders ever gets a paycheck and probably less than half of that is a relevant amount...
Although that's true, the same argument can be made for someone opening a retail account with a futures firm. Once you pass the combine AND make it through the first ten days in the live account, then it's up to the trader to get the "FAT" paycheck.
From their website: Funded Traders may trade additional products not shown on this list (i.e. products on EUREX and ICE exchanges) once they've traded 10 days.
Except you actually have a higher probability succeeding on you own trading retail instead of being handcuffed and tst taking their cut and 1099'ing you which also reduces your net even more since you will now owe an additional 15.3 % SE tax as well as paying normal tax brackets instead of 60/40 treatment on your own. The results speak for themselves. After 5 years of existence where are the traders at tst that are making any decent money ? Just guessing 100 combiners x 60 months, 6000 people minimum churned through the program and no one making anything worth showing ? If the program worked you would see them in their marketing. I really wish Mike would chime in and post some real numbers but I won't hold my breath ever since he promised to do so a long time ago and then backpeddled when it was time to put them up. The bottom line is they sell dreams to dreamers at a cheaper price than retail and as long as the hunger is there then the crowd will pay to play.
Do you have the stats of how many people who open retail accounts with AMP, Mirus, IB will have a "higher probability of succeeding?" There is a cost for retail and TST, either you could bleed DOWN the equity on a retail account until you are consistently profitable, or pay TST combine fees until you get the live account and start building UP the equity. Anyone can weigh the opportunity cost of either. I've mentioned that TST offers a lower up front cost benefit vs. retail, especially for those who haven't traded futures. Nobody is handcuffed. You can leave and trade a retail account once you are consistent, and then you can receive the benefits you mentioned (60/40 tax treatment, full payout, etc).
Because I love to beat dead horses... The difference is that one usually doesn't celebrate the opening of a retail account, and it can be done in a few days tops, compared to the weeks and hurdles TST makes you jump over. My point being, people here celebrate when someone finally makes it to being a funded trader, although that is pretty much equivalent of your retail account being set up and ready to trade. That isn't the goal, getting frequent and decent profit withdrawals is. So let's celebrate after the 3rd paycheck, shall we?
Just a note: I'm not in the USA. Here (Canada) it makes absolutely no difference to day trade for an entity or oneself, as it is "independent normal income" either way. You need to hold positions for more than 30 days, and do something else for the majority of your income-generating time, among other restrictions, to qualify for capital gains benefits on trading long-term positions, otherwise it's just a "professional activity". - So this tax disadvantage of TST may be US-only. (And their 20% cut is a non-issue given that their typical members are underfunded on their own.) I understand your point, but if the majority of combine subscribers are starry-eyed newcomers without any experience nor a plan (aside from combine rules), doesn't it make sense that the vast majority of them burn out? That doesn't invalidate TST's potential usefulness for the right people. What did surprise me though, was hearing them in an interview (Patak at BigMike in 2014 I think?) saying that their best live traders made "not even low 6 figures, but comfortable reasonable living". I'd expect that swinging around up to 20 lots would yield more to a lucky and/or talented exceptional few. Either he just wanted people to have reasonable expectations by claiming their average, or something in their live setup restricts the potential for profit. I agree that dreamers are a part of their clientèle, probably even a vast majority of it. However I don't see their combine as a training "program" but as a filtering tool for them, which also generates nice revenue. Dreamers couldn't stay live very long, if they even make it that far. They do "new funded trader interviews" from time to time, for what that's worth. I listened to @Crispy's. I'll know soon enough for myself, as I will probably give them a shot later this year. I don't absolutely need them, but the bump in size would help so I'm optimizing a plan around their rules. I can always refactor it for my smaller stand-alone size if they don't work out; it's only $400 (and say 6-10 weeks of my time) to find out, which is an acceptable risk for me. Useful learning experience even if it doesn't work out.
I'll pile on... Apples and oranges. If we weed out those who reach live trading by chance (they'll drop from live trading soon enough), you're left with a major difference between a retail account and TST live trading: all the mistakes people make in the weeks of mandatory simulator, they likely would've made eroding their own capital, because let's face it, part of the problem is how few retail traders have the patience to backtest and simulate enough, if at all. TST forces them to do at least some before going live, enough to show a minimum of consistency. It's much cheaper for someone without enough experience to burn through combines than burning through retail accounts, anyway. Becoming consistent is indeed a commendable achievement, I see TST as just one affordable way of demonstrating it.
At one time Mike posted and hinted along the line that the success rate pretty much mimicked retail stats.