TD has been saying since early Jan that something like a greater than 10% drop will happen "very soon". He practically guaranteed it. Oops. This stuff works, until it doesn't...
Can you document that he has been saying that since early Jan. I can point you to an appearance on CNBC on Jan 26th. While I do believe he was a little premature I think he is right things are close to a turn. For instance SPX, BKX, RUT, NIKKEI & CAC40 have 13 count sell TD Sequentials completed. FTSE100 at 12, DAX at 11, SOX at 12. Plus TD Combo sell on SPX weekly. You get the picture..........
It wasn't "early Jan" Like I remembered, but it was Jan 18. TD said the market was near a top and would drop at least 11%, probably starting within a week. That was 3 weeks ago and the market continues to make new highs. Yeah splitting hairs maybe, it has only been a couple weeks longer than he predicted. But he's the one that made such a specific prediction. He probably should have just said "near an important top". That would have given lots of leeway. I'm not saying there is no worth in his indicators. I use his concepts all the time. Just that if you make a prediction like that, prepare to be shown the door by the market... U.S. stocks are within a week of âa significant market topâ that is likely to precede a drop of at least 11 percent in the S&P 500, said Tom DeMark, creator of a set of market-timing indicators. DeMarkâs Sequential and Combo indicators, designed to identify market tops and bottoms, are giving a sell signal on the main U.S. stock benchmark for the first time since mid-2007, he said in a telephone interview. âIâm pretty confident that in one to two weeks, the market will be in a descent,â said DeMark, founder and chief executive officer of Market Studies LLC. âIt could be pretty sharp.â http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...s-medical-leave-spurs-concern-over-apple.html
I agree he should have known better to be so specific such is the confidence he has in his market studies. But I do think he will be proven right shortly*. * anywhere from now till end April (scene of a selloff/correction last year). How is that for an wide open prediction.
I am not sure if it can be fully tested. It is more of a method than a system. I coded the TD method a few years back but just as a confirmation signal. I based my rules on the book by Jason Perl: DeMark Indicators (Bloomberg Market Essentials: Technical Analysis).