The Rise And Fall Of America

triggertrader · Jan 17, 2018

OddTrader · Jan 17, 2018

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

Domestic and global trends suggest that in 2025, just 15 years from now, the American century could all be over except for the shouting.

By Alfred W. McCoy
December 6, 2010

Alfred W. McCoyAlfred W. McCoy is the J.R.W. Smail Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

https://www.thenation.com/article/decline-and-fall-american-empire/

Ordinary Americans, watching their jobs head overseas, have a more realistic view than their cosseted leaders. An opinion poll in August 2010 found that 65% of Americans believed the country was now “in a state of decline.” Already, Australia and Turkey, traditional US military allies, are using their American-manufactured weapons for joint air and naval maneuvers with China. Already, America’s closest economic partners are backing away from Washington’s opposition to China’s rigged currency rates. As the president flew back from his Asian tour last month, a gloomy New York Times headline summed the moment up this way: “Obama’s Economic View Is Rejected on World Stage, China, Britain and Germany Challenge US, Trade Talks With Seoul Fail, Too.”

Viewed historically, the question is not whether the United States will lose its unchallenged global power, but just how precipitous and wrenching the decline will be. In place of Washington’s wishful thinking, let’s use the National Intelligence Council’s own futuristic methodology to suggest four realistic scenarios for how, whether with a bang or a whimper, US global power could reach its end in the 2020s (along with four accompanying assessments of just where we are today). The future scenarios include: economic decline, oil shock, military misadventure, and World War III. While these are hardly the only possibilities when it comes to American decline or even collapse, they offer a window into an onrushing future.
More...

tomorton · Jan 17, 2018

Nice to see another ex-British country starting to make decent progress. This will have good results given time.

OddTrader · Jan 17, 2018

The world ought to become a much more inclusive, tolerate ad harmony place among different cultures, races, income-levels, and wealth-distributions.

Perhaps the world's centre of gravity, in economic/ political/ cultural/ military/ etc terms, has been naturally and gradually shifted from the West to East.

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/08/18/why-economic-growth-will-fall/

Why Growth Will Fall
William D. Nordhaus
August 18, 2016 Issue
The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living Since the Civil War ( by Robert J. Gordon )

What are the underlying trends? Figure 1 on this page shows the growth in total factor productivity by decade since 1890. I show two estimates to provide an idea of how robust Gordon’s conclusions are. The one labeled “Gordon” is from his Figure 16.5. The alternative measure, which I have constructed for this review, combines other sources, with private GDP for the first half of the period covered and business output for the second half.2 (The data were provided by Gordon. A shortcoming of his book is the absence of an online appendix, and in this respect it is behind best practice.)
More...

http://www.news.com.au/technology/p...n/news-story/16ef0f8642b1699f805f324489942345

"The leaked Nuclear Posture Review contains a graphic that shows the new nuclear delivery vehicles the US’s enemies have developed over the past decade.Source:Supplied "

OddTrader · Jan 17, 2018

OddTrader said:
The world ought to become a much more inclusive, tolerate ad harmony place among different cultures, races, income-levels, and wealth-distributions.

Perhaps the world's centre of gravity, in economic/ political/ cultural/ military/ etc terms, has been naturally and gradually shifted from the West to East.

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/08/18/why-economic-growth-will-fall/

http://www.news.com.au/technology/p...n/news-story/16ef0f8642b1699f805f324489942345

"The leaked Nuclear Posture Review contains a graphic that shows the new nuclear delivery vehicles the US’s enemies have developed over the past decade.Source:Supplied "
More...

???

What the US Is Losing as Trump Insists on ‘America First’

By Rob Garver Follow
May 31, 2017

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/05/31/What-US-Losing-Trump-Insists-America-First

In their op-ed, McMaster and Cohn explicitly reject the elder Bush’s description of a world in which nations cooperate to further each other’s interests because it is the right thing to do and because it altruistically benefits everyone.

On the contrary, they write, “the world is not a ‘global community’ but an arena where nations, nongovernmental actors and businesses engage and compete for advantage.”

The good news in McMaster and Cohn’s construct is that America enters the arena as the strongest competitor. “We bring to this forum unmatched military, political, economic, cultural and moral strength,” they write. “Rather than deny this elemental nature of international affairs, we embrace it.”
More...

OddTrader · Jan 17, 2018

Democrats Are Right, the Tax Bill Is a Disaster — but They're Wrong About Why

By Marc Joffe
January 4, 2018

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Colum...ight-Tax-Bill-Disaster-Theyre-Wrong-About-Why

If that happens again, the budgetary impact of the GOP tax cuts will be much greater than the headline numbers indicate. Even when economic growth is considered, the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that the tax measure will add over $1 trillion to the debt over the next 10 years. CBO’s static analysis shows personal income tax cuts adding about $140 billion to the deficit annually between 2023 and 2025. This falls to $83 billion in 2026 as the tax cuts phase out. By 2027, the law actually lowers the deficit by $22 billion, consistent with those small tax increases forecast by TPC. A renewal of the personal income tax changes would thus add about $175 billion to the debt in 2026 and 2027. Over a 30-year period, the impact would be trillions in additional red ink.

These new shortfalls will worsen an already bleak fiscal picture. After attaining a post-recession trough of $438 billion in 2015, the deficit increased in the last two fiscal years, reaching $666 billion in the year ending September 30, 2017. Fiscal 2018 was already looking dicey, with $198 billion in red ink being added in the first two months (or $15 billion more than the same period last year). And that’s before the tax cuts kicked in. It is also before Congress inevitably puts the bulk of disaster relief spending for recent hurricanes and forest fires on the national credit card and breaks budget caps to accommodate a surge in military and non-defense spending.

By 2025, trillion-dollar plus annual deficits are likely to be the norm, so adding $150 billion annually by extending the 2017 personal tax cuts will seem to be no big deal. But at some point the cumulative impact of all this deficit spending will trigger an economic crisis.
More...

Budget
Trump Signs Bill to Provide $700 Billion for the Pentagon, Maybe

By Michael Rainey
December 12, 2017

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/12/12/Trump-Signs-Bill-Provide-700-Billion-Pentagon-Maybe
More...

Humpy · Jan 17, 2018

Even though democracy is poor in many ways, dictatorship, the obvious alternative, is a lot worse except for the elite running it.

OddTrader · Jan 17, 2018

Humpy said:
Even though democracy is poor in many ways, dictatorship, the obvious alternative, is a lot worse except for the elite running it.
More...

imo, I hope nowadays their difference between the two ideologies has been gradually reduced due to the availability of the Internet and provision of general/higher education.

Need to be patient to see potentially long term development, besides to understand culture difference, in order to avoid any unnecessary war.

tomorton · Jan 17, 2018

OddTrader said:
imo, I hope nowadays their difference between the two ideologies has been gradually reduced due to the availability of the Internet and provision of general/higher education.

Need to be patient to see potentially long term development, besides to understand culture difference, in order to avoid any unnecessary war.
More...

Dictatorship is not just some other ideology. It is slavery and totally unacceptable in any nation.

It is deeply shameful that dictators have full membership of the UN, when they can barely qualify as members of the human race.

Humpy · Jan 17, 2018

Freedom is imho a fight worth having but it must be wanted sufficiently by the enslaved.
The North Koreans obviously aren't up for it if they can't get rid of one man.
Don't deserve it either.