I'm serious, I can't make this up. ES went from a failed QTR A to a failed QTR A down. One day. And you guys think ACD won't work in volatile times.....
Well you're talking about Quarter A downs and ups....I was responding to someone who said they would be using ACD for intraday trading today and the next few days. If you look at even just monthly ACD levels...it's not relevant anymore with last night's move. Now, if we're talking about daily ACD levels? Those are gonna be skewed even more for the next few days or so.
I think you need to re-read my post. I said "There are going to be many trading opportunities in the days ahead, and we can use ACD rather than any knee jerk reaction." No mention of intraday, and especially not today as I was suggesting there is no rush to trade.
As long as the sun keeps rising in the East, so come the ACD trading opportunities. I do have to warn though, that sun will implode one day down the road and when that happens, so goes the ACD trading opportunities.
Mav, have you heard anything about brokers having issues with margin debt? I'm looking at IBKR down almost 5% and the old 'blood on the streets' feeling is making me restless.
IB is pretty safe. They are ruthless on the auto-liquidate. LOL. I would be more worried about under-funded prop shops.
Stat of the day: Since 1990 when the SPX lost >1.5% on a Friday it had a lower low 86 of 90 times on Monday.
All a real good bookmaker is is an analyst of analysts. I am talking the big ones that are willing to handle sharp action, which most really don't anymore. They are making prices and seeing who takes what. They know they have players or syndicates that do very good work using a variety of techniques. They are watching how they position themselves, and adjusting accordingly. If a few really well respected players are loading up on say the Marlins at +170, but the majority of money and public type play is still flying in on the Cubs -180, maybe they don't adjust Cubs upward or even take some risk and move them down to -175, getting on the same side of players they respect. There is no crystal ball. It's a constant pricing game where they are trying to charge the public as high a price as possible while not giving a price that gives value to sharp players. In baseball at least, there are days when neither side is +EV, that's how good the best shops are. What I suspect happened is they were getting some very heavy action from bettors they respect on the remain side and they just continued lowering. When the smartest people in the world get on the wrong side, in size, is when fades get profitable. All that said, I have no idea how when poll of poll averages were almost all within the margin for error, the leave side was a +900 dog. That seems insane to me, they just got caught up in what the smartest guys in the room were saying, and backing with cash.
Of topical interest. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...gn=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News) I was also watching a review by John Kicklighter, and in discussing the difficulty of live trading as results unfolded, he pointed out a 2 minute period where GBPUSD moved 500 pips. From live comments by other analysts, I believe it was due to low liquidity as much as anything else.