Hey Boss, >A positive from 4/17/15 to 5/28/15. It went nowhere and the monthly A down on 5/20/15 set the stage for a long slide down. >A positive from 2/20/15 to 3/16/15 and it too went nowhere. >A positive from 5/7/14 to 7/30/14 and that was a good move.
This place really falls apart when I don't post. LOL. Sorry guys, I have been really busy. I'll have more time at the end of next week. Feel free to talk amongst yourselves.
Well, I had a few thoughts I wanted to share, but I put that off because I've been wrestling with this pig called day trading. Lord, is it different from what I do well. Trouble is, my routine is just check crosses at the London Open, evaluate signals, place orders and adjust stops on open positions. Then at the New York close, adjust any stops as necessary. All that ACD work and number crunching seemingly put to so little use. So, since I have all of it, I decided I'd keep busy with day trading. The jury is still out on this endeavour. My first try at day trading was ES, it was a disaster that destroyed my confidence and discipline. It's baby steps with FX. The big difference is I now have ACD, and stacks of data, and every decision has a number behind it. No video games here. Any and all advice welcome, though if you tell me don't, I won't listen.
I had monthly A up for crude, but it closed very weak that day and then fell back for a whole week even trading below the day when rally have started (even though it those price levels were rejected). Prices above 50 were rejected too. It feels like crude will continue to be in a ranging market just at these slightly higher level. But of course everything can change fast...
I agree. Have had a lot of C up/ down trades across various markets lately...but with the neutral number lines the follow through has only lasted overnight and into the morning. Looking forward to getting our secondary monthly levels tomorrow when Z goes prompt.
This is the key point and why the number lines matter. You can get what looks to be very strong monthly A ups but with a neutral number line, the follow through is always suspect. That is why I was weary of the pop in WTI. It's very hard for me to get excited about neutral number lines.
Maverick, Longtime lurker here with a question. When applying number lines along with monitoring daily, weekly and monthly Aups & Adowns we are using these principles to measure price action, which may not be noticeable from a chart readers perspective. I have seen from your posts where you mention the word "tells" which the market draws our attention to, perhaps hidden strength or weakness that the majority may not necessarily have noticed. These "tells" could come in a variety of situations for example a large move occurring in FX or Bonds maybe an index with a strong number line making a weekly and monthly Aup on extremely poor sentiment etc etc. A great example of this is in Nov 2003, USD was in an downtrend, a move that was so strong that economic data almost became irrelevant. During this time virtually everyday with outright bullish news for the dollar ended up with the dollar declining. Indeed your Bond trade near the beginning of the journal was also of the same context. Quote; "Watch the 30 year bonds. We confirmed a monthly A up and we failed at the weekly about 4 times but then broke above today. Tomorrow is the last day of the month which means we get new levels next week. I get the feeling the world is massively short bonds and the price action is very strong. These bonds could really explode to the upside regardless of the debt ceiling news. This is the trade to watch in my opinion. I think everyone is leaning the wrong way. I would look at the weekly levels next week after we get the news to take action." There have been several traders who say that it is very important to monitor how a market is acting relevant to sentiment, fundamentals or other instruments just as in the situations above. I believe and I am sure you will agree that the measurements for ACD are most probably the best way for measuring this market action and there are lots of ways in which this can be applied. For sure the longer you apply ACD the more "tells" that you are likely to find. My question to you is this. Do you ALWAYS look for "tells" like the ones above before making a trade?