(Emphasis mine.) In addition to sounding like a technical analysis bash thread, I'm sorry but how has nobody else picked up on this part? After 10 trades, it seems useless. How about doing 1000 (for free using historical data replays) first? There isn't much to learn from ten trades.
I share the sentiment, but (until your post above, which I've just noticed) I'd given up on the thread long before that. Just the observation in the OP that candlesticks are "wrong 1/3 of the time, for predicting price-movements" was sufficiently disturbing, and on more than one level, for me not to hang around in the thread. Until you chose to post in it, anyway ...
Sorry. I tend to visit ET only about twice per week these days so I'm often a few days late to the party.
I usually ignore threads like this but I have noticed more so called newbies making threads about this but not so much about TA...its more about trading. Yet, on the flip side...its OK and the market needs these types of traders that think they have figure out what works and what does not work in 10 trades, 1 month, 25 message posts, 15 likes, 5 research articles and so on. Oddly, they always say there's something that does work while making a contradiction statement via saying they're struggling in their trades or not making money. Simply, it doesn't add up and they come across as some confused trader that should not be trading. Seriously, if he truly believes fundamental analysis is the way to go...he should just exploit it (use it) and not worry about anything else. Anyways, as stated...the markets need traders like this beyond them just providing liquidity on their very little exposure to the markets. P.S. The fact that he posted this in the TA section and the fact he stated fundamental analysis works...its a TA bashing thread considering he could have just as easily posted a fundamental analysis thread in the sections where such is appropriate involving useful insights about such for those into trading via fundamental analysis only.
By what I've read here and elsewhere everyone believes the use of TA is 'to predict' where the Dow will be at year's end, or what the price of Apple will be on your dog's birthday. Such usage, IMO, is the biggest pitfall of all, and leads to the failures that cause disbelief in TA. Am glad to learn that there are at least two other people in the whole world who also recognize this.
10 trades or 1000 trades. If you dont know the technique behind it you wont accomplish anything. Some traders have been trading for 10+ years but still arent very good at it.
Well first of all this is not a TA bashing thread. Second of all, I dont want to trade fundamentally as i want to trade as a short term trader. Thirdly, the reason i made this thread is to share my experience of trading with technical analysis and why it hasnt worked for me so far. Obviously there is the right way to go with it but im telling you why it hasnt worked for me by following the conventional ways (e.g. candlesticks/S&R). Also, in no way have you been useful in this thread. You cannot explain why my points are wrong and you cant also input useful techniques that will help me in TA. You're just as bad as me. You think I made this thread to bash TA, and you wrote an essay to bash my post
Its not an observation. I read the fact in the book which took data from over 10,000 different days that most candlesticks only work 2/3 of the time as they should do. And I dont find that hard to believe.
Actually, you did not ask for an explanation but instead you did ask for someone to show you the "correct ways" (your words). You also stated candlesticks are unreliable 1/3 of the time. That's like stating they work 2/3 of the time. Thus, I will assume you just got your words mixed up and that you meant to say they are reliable only 1/3 of the time to correlate with your other negative commentary about TA. Just in case I'm wrong and you believe candlesticks works 66% of the time...you do realize that's a profitable method via whatever method that resource was using in its testing...yet you're struggling to have similar like results ??? (that's a question). Note: Do you even know what was the details of the trade method being used to test Japanese Candlestick patterns ? Without those details...its not applicable for anyone else outside of the person that did the testing. In fact, I ignore research or backtesting when someone doesn't reveal the details of the trade method used in testing Japanese Candlestick patterns or any other type of TA pattern. Details like context of each trade signal, entry/exit info into the price action after the trade signal, risk management, stop/loss management, trail stop management when trade is in the profit and many other variables that greatly impact the success/failure rate of a pattern signal. Yes, I have been useful in notifying you that you do not have enough time to make any analogy about what works or does not works via your words of "10 trades". Therefore, anyone else that reads that comment...they will know that they can not determine if something works or does not work with very little experience involving 10 trades along with the fact you failed to mention any backtest results. The goal is to make money. Its an important goal. Thus, if you say you know fundamental analysis works but it requires you to not be short term trading...you need to sit down and reevaluate your goals. Seriously, think about that carefully...if you know you can not make money as a Short term trader because TA fails or you imply you fail at using TA but you know you can make money via fundamental analysis...it seems to me you should stick with fundamental analysis instead of short term trading assuming your goal is to make money. Don't worry...the above observation is something that involves behavior finance (that is a very useful hint for something you should research deeply). Once again, I gave you useful info (my observation about your comments on fundamental analysis in prior post and now my recommendation to you about behavior finance in this post) to further research such if you're serious about making money via what you know. In contrast, you seem to be struggling with short term trading and you're not making money. Seems like a no brainer to me about which direction you should be heading right now or did I miss your point of your story ??? Therefore, I will not encourage you to stick with short term trading via TA. Thus, had you not mention anything about fundamental analysis working unless you forgot to say that its something you had heard but not actually tried. Thus, you really do not know if fundamental analysis works for you or not although you implied it does work for you. Stick with what you know and you're good at...its really that simple. Yet, if you truly want someone to give you useful techniques to help you with TA (your words)...start with this forum list call Hall of Fame threads and there's many TA threads in that list @ http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?pages/hall-of-fame/ for you to choose any particular topic you're interested in about TA. The above is useful info...your choice if you want to use it or not but others have found it very useful.