T/A Fails Time and Time Again - Why?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by MarkBrown, Nov 22, 2015.

Time based data

  1. Yes time is a factor in my trading plan.

    71.4%
  2. No time is not a factor in my trading plan.

    28.6%
  1. Handle123

    Handle123

    Polaroid one day will be like carbon paper, cork, typewriters, telegraph and many other "had to have" one day devices, if you don't adapt, others will.

    Math and the markets is like Spock and people, always interesting as together, they seldom agree. But it is the times when they do agree, patterns, is where one can find low losing percentages. I believe in "time" as I back test and proves to me that longer I stay in a trade that is going no where, lower losing percentages goes up. So I believe in bar counts of time so many bars regardless of factor of time, whether it is one minute bars or weekly, each has a bar count of 3 or 2 of giving the trade long enough to prove it will be going direction of my trade. I think trend direction makes a difference, uptrend require more time whereas downtrend less, up is hope and down is fear. The hurdle of math is it is black and white and price is emotional color, but refine by math rules.
     
    #21     Nov 23, 2015
    onemoreshot likes this.
  2. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    I can't believe you're taking the position that there's nothing wrong with the math. Math isn't some gift from a higher power, it is simply a man-made tool designed to explain some aspect of reality. And as with any tool, the designs range from very poor to excellent.

    Ask yourself this: how many hammers do you need to pound nails? The answer is one, if it's a good hammer. You don't need 20 hammers to pound nails. Yet there are at least 20 different technical indicators, all supposedly designed to do the same thing: find trends. Why? Because most are poorly designed, especially the early ones. This is not surprising. The earliest tools in any area of work are often the crudest and the ones most in need of improvement or replacement.

    Are you seriously suggesting all trend indicators are equivalent and equally excellent if we could only somehow eliminate time?

    It isn't time that's destructive. As I posted previously, time is merely the medium in which change takes place. Changes are inevitable, ergo time is inevitable. And some changes are destructive. This is due to entropy, not time. It is entropy which your ire should be directed towards. Time exists to keep everything from happening at once. It's a good thing.
     
    #22     Nov 23, 2015
  3. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    Data, aka reality is the truth, math is a tool used by people for creating a model which is an approximation of reality. Always be aware of the limitations of a model and under what circumstances it is not valid.
     
    #23     Nov 23, 2015
    kut2k2 likes this.
  4. Perfect understanding in an environment of uncertainty? Good luck with that.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2015
    #24     Nov 23, 2015
    kut2k2 likes this.
  5. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    T/A is not failing me because i have set time adrift from my island.
     
    #25     Nov 23, 2015
  6. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Folks, we gots ourselves the proverbial wind-up thread. Usual participants. Unsubscribed. Thank you for your time.
     
    #26     Nov 23, 2015
    Frederick Foresight likes this.
  7. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    the very reason most people fail to be successful at trading is that they don't have the capacity to accept the unknown or even the concept of intelligence beyond their own scope (dreamer, theorist, conceptionist, researchers) all wasting their time to the betterment of mankind?

    however how quick the sheep are to embrace a "known" as their own discovery. lol
     
    #27     Nov 23, 2015
    zbestoch likes this.
  8. TA does not fail, a trader who misses something may fail. In many cases it happens when market changes its behavior.

    As an examples, when market becomes more volatile, used technical indicators may start to fail because price starts to change its direction faster and stronger. All you need to do is to adjust your analysis to new levels of volatility. If you do not do it you may end up jumping in and our either too early or too late.
     
    #28     Nov 23, 2015
    DDR likes this.
  9. The problem is not the time in math, it's the time in the trader.

     
    #29     Nov 23, 2015
    Cswim63 and sowterdad like this.
  10. Bars of time was just a rather ancient way of distributing data when people made charts by hand.
     
    #30     Nov 23, 2015
    marketsurfer likes this.