Replay for 1/14… Overnight, price had been moving downward a bit. Using the hourly, lows were lower and swing highs were lower too. The last swing high was at 4170 which coincides with the mean of the range from the 12th. Price formed a hinge just before the open. What a coincidence that the middle area was the swing low from around 0200. Broke out of the hinge like a house on fire. Surpassed the last true swing high from the overnight. Price twice bounced off the 50% area of the up move. Unable to make a HH in the midst of those two bounces. Traders are in equilibrium. It’s like a reset button - hang out here and until we figure out which way to go next. A range between 4130 and 4140 has formed. Price keeps bouncing up and down - spending a bit of time around 4135 which happens to be that last swing high from the overnight. Seeking new value to the high side after a bounce from the 50% area of the range. Price heads back into the range, but doesn’t stay long - shoots up. HH established followed by quick (timewise) and shallow (only 5 points) pullback. Another HH established, but the pullback was much more fierce and steady. Surpassed the previous swing low and broke the DL. Sellers seem to be in complete control for the moment. Buyers haven’t had any luck in getting price back up. Price is cascading down. Is the top end of the range from earlier in the morning showing it’s significance again? Price can’t even get above the last swing low from the up move, but it hasn’t gotten back into the range yet. A push up and then price fell back into the 30-40 range from earlier and even to the 50% area of the range which also coincides with the 50% area of the up move from the NY open. Amazing how price in this area just hangs out for a while. The range is popular. And the lower end is visited followed by a pop back up to “home.” And to the range and out through the other side. Is this the beginning of the return up and the 50% area (of the up move) will have held? The last swing high was exceeded. Back down to 4135… Trying the bottom after having tried the top side. Price moved up a little over 20 points from the 4135 area. Think it’ll go down that many points - to the 4116 area? Well - 4116 is the middle of that hinge before the NY open… Price did make it down to 4116, but not without testing 4135 again!
I'm not posting a chart because I traded (sim) like a jackass today by not following my own rules. A - I like to let the market settle down a little (first 5-10 minutes) before really contemplating a trade. Me - I got antsy and HAD to get in. B - I use a 1min chart for entries. As much as I see pullbacks and hesitations during the formation of a 1min bar, my plan calls for entries based off 1min bar retraces - NOT intrabar retraces. C - After the market moved like it did (didn't really show its hand), I told myself that until 86 above or 76.5 below were breached, I was to sit on the sidelines. I didn't do it and I got chopped to hell. It's my own fault. The rules work. I just have to follow them. Time to pull up my boot straps and only do what the plan allows. Today was the culmination of two days of "wishing" for the market to move more. I've got to get over it because the market doesn't give a damn if I'm there or have any interest in my wants for its behavior. So glad I'm in sim. No need to piss away money.
Some of what Db has posted in another journal has (yet again) got me thinking. I’m struggling with trying to figure out how much time is enough. I’ve made comments about not knowing what to DO with the information after watching and the response was, “you’ll know.” I guess because I don’t yet “know”, I still need to do more watching. There’s also been a lot of talk (around ET) about a higher timeframe price bar as that keeps one out of trades sometimes. I am seeing the nuances of price in a 1min bar, but I do see also that a small swing tends to seem so much more important, but when looking at a 5min bar, it doesn’t even register because it occurred within the bar. I couldn’t even imagine looking at a 5sec or 1tick chart. Too much information for me. I’m also trying to figure out risk - and what makes sense most often. In that process, I’m realizing that there isn’t a “one size fits all” approach. As much as a 5 point stop should likely be enough, some days it won’t be - and other days it’s giving too much when signals already exist that the entry has failed. I think I’m realizing though that the 1min bar is too much for me. I am just not seeing the forest from the trees and that isn’t comfortable. This may seem kind of wimpy to not be able to do it, but I think it’s the wisest choice for me - at least for a while. It sucks, but for me, the Observation stage is where I'll remain for a while.
Trying to use replay in a different manner. Both Db and 40D have written extensively about trading at the extremes - highs/lows of ranges or PDHs, PDLs, etc. They written about observing price around those levels. I’m going to try to focus my replay attention on just that - areas that I identify as extremes and how price reacts. What I’ll be looking for… --Does price surge through a level? --If so, does it immediately fail or slightly pause? --Does it move sideways? --Does price pause just prior to a level? --If so and it does exceed the level, what happens next? Prior to the NY open, price had been hovering around the PDH, but since that price had been exceeded followed by a LH and an attempt to get back up to 52, that level doesn’t seem to be of tremendous interest right now. Failure to move past the most recent swing high. Broke swing low, but did not get to the 21 area. Back to the PDH level. Fairly popular area. 2nd attempt to get to the ON high area and a failure. Perhaps 46/47 is the place to beat? Since two attempts up didn’t work, perhaps traders will have more luck to the south. This move up has solidified a range between 27 and 47. Couldn’t make it all the way down. Couldn’t make it all the way back up. Swift movement down, but doesn’t make it to 21. Am I being too rigid on identifying 21 as the area? Should it be +/- 2-3 points? PRICE DIDN'T MAKE IT TO THE AREA OF SUPPORT, PAUSED AND THEN WENT BACK UP TO 'HOME.' Aggressive movement up. Heading down toward extreme area, but almost bounces off 25. Moving with more conviction again, but a quick pop up. Definite hesitation as the area near 21 is approached. Support has been found - no doubt. STEADIER MOVEMENT ON THE WAY DOWN AS COMPARED TO #8. Pop down to the area of support and price almost stops - doesn’t go higher and doesn’t go lower. It just hangs out. PRICE HAS MADE IT TO THE PRE-DETERMINED LEVEL. After a minute of just going between 20.25 and 20.75, price pops down but immediately retraces more than 50% of what had been gained. Doesn’t “look” like a V reversal though. PRICE DID NOT GO ABOVE 21. HAS SUPPORT BECOME RESISTANCE? Another pop down. Movement is not fluid right now. Very herky jerky. Price is slowing down a bit. Pseudo swing high drawn. And then it heads south like crazy. Calm before the storm. Due to the quick 5-point pop down, the more intense pullback isn’t a surprise. Swing high holds. First true SLA entry here. Some congestion around ’00. Price makes it all the way back up to 12 after two HLs and HHs. Swing high still not breached. After swing high held, price steadily headed down and just barely made a new LL. But price didn’t stay there for long. Too many comments about price away from the pre-determined areas, but I'll cut that out for the next one. The previous day overnight range midpoint was marked, but I didn't wait for price to reach that. On 1/9, this day had me completely upside down as to which way price was heading. Had I only been focusing on a few specific price areas, I'd like to think I would have been calmer.
You appear to be stuck. I'm going to repost something I wrote quite a while back. If the timing is wrong, just ignore it. But you're a better judge of what you need than anyone else is. The review has at least three elements. At the very least, the review should cover the trades that were done. The next step is to detail what should have been done. But the review is relatively pointless if there is no thought given to exactly what one can and will do during the next session to avoid taking the trades that should not be taken and to take those trades that should be taken. Fear cannot be dissolved unless and until one achieves competence. If one feels competent to solve the problem, fear becomes much less a factor, and the more competent one feels, the less influence fear has, if any. If you do not complete "proactive" reviews, you will not be much farther along in a year than you are now. If you're still hesitant about where to draw lines or how to define a "break", for example, then you are not yet at the level of competence necessary to put fear in its place. The review must provide a prescription for future trading behavior. "Just follow the rules" is not enough if one has not internalized the rules and cannot apply them without hesitation and without thought. Trading with "discipline" if one is trading a plan he doesn't trust is not productive. You cannot apply the principles of Zen until you know the game perfectly inside and out. Having the proper attitude of Zen calm and confidence does no good if you do not know the game. Zen will not make up for, or offset, incorrect play. As a result, there is a certain amount of ordinary, old-fashioned work involved in mastering the game, a certain amount of sweating the white beads before the days of tranquility come along. Good [trading] is not a "mood", it is a series of individual decisions. It does not occur by "Buddhistically" meditating ourselves into some dreamlike mental state, but rather by knowing the game well and being in synch with it -- by inserting ourselves correctly into the flow of what is going on in front of us. No Zen attitude will make up for this lack. You may be quite Zen-like and have all the attributes of Zen calm, but if you play incorrectly, the result is that you will get destroyed. Practice, and long hours at the table, are indispensable. (Larry Phillips) Concentration and focus are as important as developing a robust trading plan. There is nothing casual about daytrading. It requires attention. But the attention must be of the right kind. The trader must be honest enough with himself to determine whether he's thinking about what traders are doing or about the status of his trade. If the latter, he needs to stop and pull himself together as no purpose will be served by his driving through the rest of the session. By focusing on the latter rather than the former, his results will only get worse. It is not possible to know exactly what the market will do once the opening bell rings much less what it will do once one has entered a trade. But there is a world of difference between the trader who tenses up and holds his breath while the trade unfolds -- hopefully away from his entry point -- and the trader who understands that anything can happen and anticipates the market's moves, is fully confident that he knows how to deal with those moves, and that he will act appropriately when required to act. If the focus is on these elements, there is no space for fear. It becomes an indulgence.
You say you're not trading but you write as though you have trades in your head. The chief difficulty is that you're coming at this as someone who had traded and wasn't satisfied with the result. Making all of that evaporate is difficult. Blocking it out is counter-productive. Perhaps you need to have skin in the game in order to engage the material with more focus. Can you trade without thinking about the trade? If not, you would likely backslide to a considerable extent. If you can, perhaps the exercise might provide more clarity. Or perhaps it's time for you to watch someone else now that you have a better idea of what to look for. You know best what you need. Just take care to retreat and regroup if you make an inappropriate decision and find yourself making the wrong choices.