Some ways to define a Trend.

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by dartmus, Nov 17, 2014.

  1. sidm

    sidm

    I think I have the answer to #2. The straight-line approach is basically drawing a trend line through the last few swing lows (which indicate support). This is the demand line. The only simplification is to draw the supply line by drawing a parallel line on swing highs, presumably to ease the visualization process for someone staring at a chart on the screen. But from a purely analytical perspective, the supply line could also be drawn independently by passing a trend line through swing highs.

    For some reason I am unable to edit the previous post, so had to make a separate reply.
     
    #101     Jan 3, 2015
  2. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    I use a dynamic MA based method, here is my chart of my current setup.

    Arrows drawn on for where I'm looking to enter with the current direction.

    I had the last 1 live for +19pts.

    The white envelope gives fast direction and also expected noise chop range.


    It's simple, can pick up and trade and put away and it's fairly objective which makes back testing possible to a reasonible degree of accuracy.
     
    #102     Jan 4, 2015
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    I don't know where you're getting all of this from, but it's nothing that I pay any attention to, so I can't answer your question.

    However, in short, indicators, MAs, trendlines, etc don't provide support or resistance. They can't. Any seeming S or R they appear to present is purely in the mind of the trader and therefore eventually useless. This is not to say that one can't develop a marginally profitable method based on any or all of this, but it's no different from constructing a building on sand.

    Except for #4, this is essentially correct. As for #4, time is not all that important. What matters is the number of trades. These can take place quickly or they can drag themselves out over time, but the number of trades may remain the same.

    What is more important than finding value is following the search for value, as it is here that profit opportunities are most easily found. This is why buying something that's in a base is less productive than buying it when or shortly after it leaves the base.
     
    #103     Jan 4, 2015
  4. Turveyd

    Turveyd


    MA's are better for seeing direction, but the 100ema on the DAX has called a fair few reversals of recently.

    Ofcourse, if price goes to 100ema, I don't take a trade I wait for Heiken Ashi or my 10sma setup to give me a safer entry, you've got to remove all the time where it powers through all S/R which would obviously create losers.

    Base, has advantages tighter SL, more upside, but lower odds on success.
     
    #104     Jan 4, 2015
  5. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    You don't say better than what, but one should not require a moving average to tell up from down.

    As for "calling reversals", nothing that stems from the mind of the trader can do so. But then there can be a wide gulf between perception and reality.
     
    #105     Jan 4, 2015
  6. If I may throw in my 2c worth. Although some traders profess to using ma's profitable, (usually along with some PA) their value can be negated if one simply understands and accepts that price behavior morphs over time. Width of channels, time between peaks and troughs, trendiness, etc. Todays 5 min chart may look more like last weeks 30 min chart.

    So, any given ma will have times it seems to work, depending on how the market is changing.
    When a traders chosen ma seems not to be working, they may dismiss it as a noisy or choppy market. It may be, but it may also just be the normal variations that have and will continue to occur. I now bow out, sorry for the intrusion.
     
    #106     Jan 4, 2015
  7. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    Better than my bare brain, I read too much into the noise, so the over all direction in general works better, obviously directions can change, but not that often so it's all good.

    I use Heiken Ashi for the immediate direction, I don't trade against this, but I also trade in the direction of the 10sma using my range, so if 10sma is going up, market pulls back to the dotted area odds are it will continue in the direction of the 10sma, so SL other side of the not dotted 10sma line and with M1 and DAX you'd be surprised 80%+ win rate, profits twice SL easy.

    Staying out of no direction is key and taking advantage of noise / chop.

    Does require experience ofcourse, never just that easy.
     
    #107     Jan 4, 2015
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    If you need all of this, there's no reason not to use it. However, it's all in your head, and price doesn't care about any of it.

    As a reminder, the question was about Auction Market Theory.
     
    #108     Jan 4, 2015
  9. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    80%+ win rate, so you won't mind if I don't believe your opinion :)

    Ofcourse price doesn't care, I'm using the current direction/trend in a logic way to me!
     
    #109     Jan 4, 2015
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    The win rate is irrelevant to the subject, but it's good that you're happy.
     
    #110     Jan 4, 2015