The action on this thing is incredible tonight. 500 pt up and down moves in under an hour (1000$/contract).
Is there size? 20-40 ticks is 20-40 dollars. It is a $12,000 contract when TF is $125,000 and YM is ~$90,000
20-40 ticks is actually 50-100$, it's 2.5$/tick, 1$/point (min movement increment is 2.5$). If one were trading 10 lots to equate this to TF or YM in notional value then they really better know what they're doing because it can move quickly. But on the flip-side if one sees a really good setup...
Had some initial losses while stalking a setup but had conviction in the ascending triangle in both XINA50 and HSI being broken so pushed on.... The triangle ended up being broken after a patience testing cup and handle'ish route to get there, but by that point I was 3 lots long and glad I stuck with it. This thing moves. It's like trading HSI but with slightly better action IMO. Volume on this contract has also noticeably gone up in just the last week alone. It's already done 600k contracts before lunch and yesterday there seemed to be almost double the volume after lunch. Trade it while it's hot.
I had my first experience with it last night from about 1-2am CST. Talk about some volatility, wow. I tried watching the DOM for a bit, but it was moving so quick it was basically pointless. I shorted twice when it got up around +5% and made a small profit on both, then did one more time but was too late and took a small loss.
I have been watching this index futures for two trading sessions. It seems to be a sloppy market, that is, if my entry is wrong, I can often get away with three to four ticks profit. (Three ticks is needed to cover IB commission.) Of course, my opinion may change, if I watch this market longer.
I find retraces in this future to move more than one expects. It's not as tight as US indexes which we're familiar with and is more like HSI in that respect. To put it in fib terms, if one were expecting a 38-50% retrace, it'll go to 50-68%. Entries are important or you'll be burning money on stops. Always remember where you are in the bigger timeframe. Try to discern retail volume from larger player volume. One could actually scalp retail reaction moves as a strategy as well. At times this can be a frustrating contract to trade and at other times it can be easy. Probably nothing new there.
The biggest edge you can get in this market is remembering that the underlying (so not the future itself, but what it tracks) is driven by 90% retail customer trading, this is above the Chinese historical average of 80% - which itself is very high for market standards. This isn’t semi-pro retail traders either, most (I don’t have any percentage though) would be first timers looking to make money fast. Some will bail on losing “chased” trades in fear (we have seen that already) and others will stay in until the broker force liquidates. I wouldn’t trust technical analysis (I actually never do myself – but that’s off topic) and as for fundamentals, if the PBOC can’t ignite a rally, nobody can. Fun to watch, but beware, there is no real options market in China so even the other 10-20% of non-retail traders cant hedge – although one could hedge using A50 US/EU-listed ETF options when those markets are trading. In essence, the edge might be behavioral. Now if only the SGX would get those FOPs listed for this contract!