I don't think so. RM is one of only a handful of traders on this board who have been able to produce high quality real time trade calls, this journal being living proof of this.
No offense and I havent studied Natural Gas but.... Regardless of past performance, things like 15% heat, new multi-year lows knife catching, double down, are not high quality elements, that kind of crap leads to high blood pressure or worse. In any case, best wishes to the parties involved, this started like a train wreck.
I actually followed this call on monday morning (hence with a better entry than when RM called it , but still in red). First call I follow from this thread, hopefully it will work fine. Not convinced shorting DGAZ is better than going long NG futures though, and wondering if I shouldn't go that way to add to the position, which is still of a conservative size. Maintenance margin with IB portfolio margin to short DGAZ is around 105% compared to around 12% to go long the futures, borrow fee is around 4% (offsetted partially by the 1.65% ETF management fee, which works in favour of the short ETF position) I'm interested in more discussion on the merit of shorting the ETF rather than going long the futures
Why go long natural gas in December? Natural gas usually bottoms in March after winter is over, not at the start of winter. Also market is in contango so long nat gas positions lose money even if spot prices stay the same. What do I know, everyone loves catching falling knives these days.
Was wearing a t-shirt at my beach house outside of NYC all weekend. Temperature was in the mid 60's. Insane for December. DGAZ +12% pre market. Roughly 33% pain. I'm sensing a triple down coming shortly (as RM originally stated).
Confluence of El Niño, oil glut, Texas oil tax, and Arctic winds staying up in Canada...is driving NG prices lower.
Structural fundamental reasons also. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/LNG-Glut-Worse-Than-Oil.html