Ratio Back " CallSpread " ... Just a few questions

Discussion in 'Options' started by md2324, Jul 27, 2015.

  1. rmorse

    rmorse Sponsor

     
    #11     Jul 28, 2015
  2. rmorse

    rmorse Sponsor

    I would not buy the ratio if it were a debit balance. I would want a small credit, so if the market is flat to up I make money or break even. I would want it vega positive though.
     
    #12     Jul 28, 2015
    md2324 likes this.
  3. md2324

    md2324

    Adding on to the Backspread strategy as a whole .....
    If we use the tools that are provided through TorS trading platform ( other platforms may have these features as well )..... Then if we look to put on a Backspread trade, with at minimum ..... 45 - 60 days till expiration , we can look at that months Options ( as a whole ) on TorS , and know what the Implied Volatility / Expected move is in terms of a $ amount , and using this ..... in conjunction with the ITM and OTM tools that TorS offers ...... we know ( mathematically and statistically speaking ) , what the odds are , that the Options we BUY ( for our Backspread ) , what the Odds are , that the strike that we buy will be " exceeded " , as this assumes a Bullish Callspread that we are doing.
    And in knowing the Math and probabilities of certain strikes being " Hit " before and or come expiration ..... we can give are selves an advantage , and only buy OTM calls , that have a 70% chance of being " Touched and or exceeded " during the time we place the trade, and up until expiration.


    ( I have Attached Screenshots , that show the Exact things I am writing / mentioning below in the following example ) .......

    Say we get a trigger from are chart(s) to go long on XOM for example , and XOM is trading at $81 ( as of 7-28-2015 )
    So to put on a Bullish Backspread..... we sell the ATM $80 and buy 2 OTM $85
    The Net Credit is $1.35 ( I think this is for a credit, but I'm NOT 100% sure .... it shows a minus sign in front of the $1.35 , and usually on the TorS , when the trade is put on for a Credit, the background for the trade/order shows up as a red color and not a green color as it is showing up in this example ).
    Anyways ..... The Expected move ( 1 SD ) from now until the expiration of the SEP15 ( 52 ) options is showing around $5
    And also, the IV Rank indicators 1 month expected move , is also showing a $5 " expected move "

    So given that the two are nsync with eachother, that helps add confirmation that $5 is a likely expected move/target , and would put XOM trading at either $86 or at $76

    Since we're Bullish and are expecting a nice upward move in XOM , then by BUYING the $85 calls in the Backspread , we are actually " Below " the expected move " Range " of $5 from where XOM is currently trading at $81, and so ...... we in a way are giving are selves better odds and thus the probabilities in are favor, since the Calls we are buying, are " Less than " the $5 move ( If this makes sense ? )
    Hopefully my Example and comments didn't confuse anybody,
    But I attached the chars that show real time quotes , stats and numbers
    that I hope will clarify what I am trying to explain and Convey :)
     
    #13     Jul 28, 2015