Predicting Short Term Vs Long Term Moves

Sorry, RN, you're incorrect on this one. A longer timeframe means less chop over a given time period. Less chop means a smoother curve. A smoother curve means a trendier curve, ergo a more predictable curve.

Look up the coastline problem in fractal theory. The shorter the measuring stick, the longer the coastline. This is because coastlines are non-rectifiable curves. Price series are very similar.

 

Same invitation - prove it

RN

 

Prove it yourself. Compare ADX[daily] to ADX[weekly] on any instrument and time period you care to. No need to reply, I already know what you'll find if you did it correctly.

 

Viewed via a Bollinger band method ( auto range ), 1Min or 1Day charts do look pretty much the same.

 

Depends on how you compare them. If you compare 200 minutes to 200 days, sure they might look the same. But if you look at fixed period, say one calendar year, you're looking at 252 points on one chart versus 252*6.5*60 = 98,280 points on the other. The 252-point chart is going to look a lot smoother.

 

It's all fractal in nature, If we look at the derivative of the fractal over a multiple time frame analysis, you we see the derivatives (patterns) playing out over and over again. I think that it is something that the brain can see in some dimension and why trading sucks people into it. However, being able to capitalize on those derivatives is not easy. I only learned this because of the teachings and community at APA Zones. They use a fractal pattern to understand the consolidation and expansion of the markets regardless of timeframe. IE: support and resistance. Needless to say, It's all about your personal perspective on how you see the patterns, but they repeat all the time.

 

That's my approach. I only trade the 6E and with each passing day it becomes more predictable to me.

 

Not seeing smoother, your just zoomed out more so everything looks smaller, not smoother.

Small = Smooth to you I guess.

M1 only guy here, wouldn't try to trade D1 via same rules, 10 days to see how a trade goes for the same % of profit and risk compared to 10mins. ( only advantage being the Spread / Comms are much smaller relatively to the trade pt's value )

 

I suck at long term price prediction. I find it much easier to watch the orderflow and go for the smaller 6 - 10 tick trades than trying to guess what will happen a day from now.

 

I'm having great success studying the premarket activity/chart of something, in combination with economic reports...to determine how/where the market will move/behave during the day. ...almost like a 6'th sense even.