No I'm implying this is the beginning of a major correction... Not it is one... This is signal not noise
vix AND time, my favorite thing to think about. There's the drip method (one percent a month) or the bucket method (ten percent in a week.) I don't like either. And then there is the most beautiful correction of all. And that is when it just doesn't go anywhere and you are sitting on dead money.
...What time frame are you speaking here? I don't like to predict the future -- it's basically gambling. It's more or less easier to just guesstimate the behavior of the day ahead. (but to answer your question, if i had to choose... i'd bet on option 3)
Well there was no option for what I believe so I will write it down here. We make a lower high, and test the necklines on the H&S patterns(Nikkei 225, etc) to eventually reverse lower after we get the majority thinking the market's going to make new highs such as these recent rallies post Monday. My analysis was bearish on AAPL and Biotech before they collapsed lower. However I did not expect at all the velocity of the move and sold my short positions way too early. These have been leading and for them to react at long term key resistance levels had been making me short NQ easier. (However since the selloff, I am less bearish now than prior selloff obviously) Most financials other then Wells Fargo and JPM are still relatively weak, oil never made a higher high, dollar never made a lower low since 2008. China also never made a higher high...yet..we were about to, until the sell off and that may also have been a reason. Goldman Sachs has hit a key reversal level and since been adjacent to market sell off. Also some EU indexes are just hitting resistance levels from 2008 peak and may be a reason for the sell off as well. Quite funny when everything coincides right??? Right now I feel like volatility still wants to go higher, it has been retesting resistance and failing almost 3 times now but is very persistent and resilient. Whereas before it would spike, and then reverse almost immediately. Of course the markets that I'm currently watching can see more buyers and push to a level that makes me change my stance, but till then I have to believe in my analysis. The question on my mind is despite China "beginning to sell Treasuries", will we see more demand even at major resistance in 30year bonds to repeat the course of JGB's and push yields lower. Will we see the Dollar Index break key resistance level and change the global macro environment to levels we haven't seen before. I guess the difference is I am not emotionally bearish in which it is fear based. Simply neutral in terms of just looking at charts and have been anticipating a correction but the selling felt different this time.
this mkt is not being run by intelligent investors who can make rational decisions. It's run by managers who can't charge 2% to be sitting in cash, so they must always "do something." one of these days, cash will once again be a viable asset class, but not now, here in this range. It's cool for me, but then again, I aint charging anybody 2% just to sit and watch it everyday when it's only making .02%.
I agree. (Hedge) Fund managers...are just laughing...all the way to the bank...they make 2% on hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions. And they get to gamble with other people's money...making 20% of the profits if they're lucky. (Kind of seems like a raw deal for the investors, if you ask me)
don't be a sore loser. Those hedge fund managers make it because they have an effective sales force. If you don't want to put together a sales force, then you are going to have to make it on nothing more than your performance. The investors you are so worried about make money in other ways and have no time to learn investing and are more than happy to pay 2% just to be free from having to worry about what to do with all the money they have made.
At the moment I'm thinking 2100 again within a month and perhaps 2200 before the end of year. US, UK expanding and EU recovering. Shanghai index irrelevant (look at correlation, or lack of, to SP500 and China GDP).Margin traders got wiped out and US only went so low because of computer/exchange mess at Mon open.