Some win, most lose. But yes, long term is the way to go, you don't have massive obstacles to overcome.
Well, it's not really an edge. Stock markets have an inherent upward drift, taking advantage of this upward drift at least places you on the right side of history. Diversification and good money management are the keys to global macro across any market--- there's no magic but there is luck-- if you look closely at any of the big winners in the game, they took outsized risks to make a big stake at first-- then investors get attracted, then the application of money management and diversification keeps you in the game-- AND if you get big enough you can take some more risky bets without changing much if you lose. Starting out focused on money management is the wrong way to go about it-- that only helps the brokers and market infrastructure since you pay more commissions the more you trade.
Yes, its a catch all term. I was focused on the stock market with my initial few sentences. Those other markets do not have an inherent upward drift. However, they are information driven and informed investors can win while noise traders can win but will likely lose over time.
So you agree fundamental information is the basis for successful global macro speculation rather than mathematical modelling?
Yes, HFT has proven the effectiveness of mathematical modeling on the short term. Information has the edge in global macro in most cases. Until the future information is able to be predicted. I need to get back to work-- chat latter!
I beg to disagree... I compare all the want-tobe-a traders to the sexual impotents. All Impotents has one motivator - "Towards !" (and this the most optimal motivator if you want succeed in trading or sex) The problem is they do not have the ability (for whatever reason) and one day they just give-up on themselves.
Focus is the key toward success. Martin Schwartz always is my model. since I had the similar styles. I once shorted 20lots of sweet crude in the drop, and immeadiately closed with $0.1 gain, just $0.02 away from the true bottom,and that bottom price actually just stays seconds! I donot believe in theory/plans. I beleieve in instincts. That open minds lot. when I thought and observed too long, always I got some dummy ideas, often it is costy. The theory/ideas hold me to act naturally. My costly story is when I read a book about reaction/pullback, the market is rallying, then reacting/pullingback, volume dries up, that is a good time to buy, after I read that, my mind is occupied by this dummy idea. one time, every signs which is described in this book is there, I bought a pullback, but it keeps edging down. my belief drove me nuts! Normally I cut loss and move on without any issue, but that book's idea made me hold on to a loser too long.