Friday- Finally arrives! Markets down slightly over .5% . The only green position I had today was XBI- biotech- showing some strength in spite of the weak markets, testing the prior highs. I hope this trend continues as I have an initial good lower cost entry, and a higher entry. HEDJ stopped out on my raised stop-loss .Let's blame the Greeks! HEDJ is choppy- I've mentioned this before- If my notes are right- I have held HEDJ since May 8 $65.68, My sell today $65.75 so I paid the $2.00 in commissions with my net profits and am at break even- It's time though to pause for some positive self-reinforcement as i mention the HEDJ trade .Initially i was just going to mention the absolute break-even -of this multi-week trade- One way to view this is money that was put to use that didn't gain anything. Oh well.... HOWEVER!- Another way to view this is that I made an assessment to tighten the stop-loss based on a perceived "support level" -perhaps a weak market- , but wanted to get the trade up to the entry cost with a logical stop-as part of a faster trading view- and the realization that a well executed stop is part of a good trade- and I should reinforce that mindset. And share that-because this market has not been kind to a trending approach. In this trade, my stop-loss was set on an assessment of a boundary that price should not drop below-- because i believed - that a series of higher highs and higher lows are valid points to consider as supports within a trending price- and that a break in trend often leads to a deeper break in trend. the view i choose to use is the 2 hr chart- both for weakness and a trend change- as well as the resurgence higher-for a reentry. In this case, My stop-loss executed near the prior recent swing low level-Price had moved higher, and I did not anticipate allowing a lower swing to occur- based on the 2 hour chart- \ Incidentally, this supported my entry cost as well- Sometimes we see what we want to see in a chart's progress, and focus on that alone. It also was a double top- and I did not want to allow a double bottom- violation in the short term uptrend- As it turned out, today's decline hit my stop-loss near the open high, and price declined well below the prior swing low- An excellent exit point- BREAK OF TREND LINE ,
LOOKING AT THE SAME TRADE WITH A RENKO CHART BASED ON A 2 HR TIME FRAME- EACH RENKO BRICK HAS AN ATR- "AVERAGE TRUE RANGE" OF $.35 iF THIS WAS A DAILY RENKO CHART, THE ATR VALUE WOULD BE $.85 AND THE TREND WOULD BE INDICATED AS BULLISH, THE PRICE FLUCTUATIONS SEEN ON THE 2 HR WOULD NOT BE WIDE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A RED BRICK ON THE DAILY.
DXJ jAPAN FOCUSED HEDGED TRADE. lOOKING AT A FEW DIFFERENT CHARTS & TIMEFRAMES.... This trade is in net profitable territory. Price is showing some initial weakness Friday- and the temptation is to react to that weakness with an aggressively tightened stop-loss -Saving $.30 with a higher stop on a $50 trade is a negligable gain or loss- As long as I can capture the initial profit @ $59.00- for a few percent gain- I want to give this the opportunity to move just a smidge lower- and then to reverse and go higher- But I don't want to see it drop below the more recent swing low- making a new Lower low- LL This is still an aggressive stop-loss approach though- and it seems appropriate in more turbulent times- to be prepared to be defensive.
That was a substantial dividend pay-out! I hadn't even thought about the dividend aspect as a reason to try to hold this longer term. Past 4 months have seen a 20% appreciation from the prior swing pullback. The weekly chart does look good-with the note that this week's pause is marked with an " indecisive doji" . Chart does not look extended based on momentum, so we'll see what unfolds this week. Weekly retracements in the past several years have exceeded 10% on a number of occaisions- several marked with weekly Dojis at their peak - But that does not always occur with a decline following- In trading this on a faster time frame, I'll try to lock in some gain on price weakness and prepare to reenter on a resumption of the trend on the faster chart. It should be interesting- With Governments around the world doing financial engineering- Is this not a chess game in world economics/currency being employed? I think Japan's stock market had been flat for decades. Thanks for posting-!
lAST CHART IS THE DAILY CHART- ILLUSTRATED A couple of examples of price making dojis- Has to be viewed in the larger context of prior price-action- I view this latest Doji as likely bearish- a drop below the trend line with the doji lower filling the prior gap- momentum indicators suggest that the momentum has been weakening even though price has been increasing. This "divergence" when looking at indicators does not always prove accurate- price may continue on higher- so indicators are secondary to what the price actually does- In this example- even without indicators, the DOJI dropping lower below the ema & trend line is an obvious weaker move. That does not mean the uptrend is violated simply because I'm using a faster view to measure- Potentially, a new trend line could be constructed with the doji low - and price is still above the slower 10 ema- it's up to the individual to choose how much volatility they can allow in their trades- This in itself is not a reason for me to be a seller- Price action on DXJ moves around a bit- However, it is a reason for me to increase a stop higher- Since i only have a net small gain on this trade, I want to ensure that it does not turn into a loss . I've had too many of them in the recent months! I will revert to a semi-aggressive split - stop-loss approach as I consider this trade. I will set a 1/3 stop just at the DOJI low - this assumes that the long tail down on the doji with the close well above in the upper body indicates buyers were stepping in and buying at the end. This should see price moving higher with the doji tail making a new swing low in a resumed uptrend. The remaining 2/3 position will be at a $59.00 stop- allowing the trade a bit more room for volatility. Additionally, I will likely put on an add 25 shares to the trade with a buy-stop to likely add at $60.10, with a higher limit-$60.30 in the event of a large gap higher. This is because the uptrend is still intact and my tighter stop may get hit on a minor fluctuation and move higher- If so, my order will fill on the higher move.
I adjusted the DXJ stops as indicated and added the buy stop order- As i review my remaining positions this Sunday- A lot may have occurred over the weekend to alter the market dynamics- I don't have a clue as to what that may have been as the focus has been on digging footings for a sun room addition- I had plans to rent a mini-excavator- but the wife said - S.... We can do it and get it started on the weekend- Blessed with a determined spouse! PJP made a bearish bar in the last 2hrs of the day- breaking the trend ema- and it makes me want to react with a much tighter stop-loss directly under the low . I have a prior swing low pullback and extending a trend line suggests that I give the trade some additional room to decline- And so my stop is placed below the trend line-A trend line on 2 points on a 2 hour chart has little relevance - compared to perhaps a daily chart- or a weekly chart- or a chart with multiple reference points ......Additionally, I am setting a buy-stop order to add to the position if it goes higher from here- That is unexpected- but it happens-So, by having the order waiting to get filled on a higher move - I have to consider the possibilities that focusing on a small bearish move at the final 2 hours of the day may not translate into a deeper bearish move following the next day's open- xbi has been a great outperformer- biotech etf with exposure to some smaller biotech companies- instead of just large cap. XBI has been showing strength and has broken out to a new high. I would love to claim I picked it up at $204- but my entry is at $224.- but it has worked it's way up to $238 - What is interesting is that the market has blessed the biotech sector segment a higher valuation than the Pharma segment.At least from my 2 positions , Biotech seems favored. HACK is a final position- Trying to push to make new highs- Cyber security is an ongoing theme play- and HACK may be the best way to average into the sector-and avois the individual stock Risk.
Semis have been strong for weeks, making an upswing and closing at a new high. Weekly Chart -does it go higher here after closing above the prior highs (expected resistance) didn't seem to be an issue on the week- Will "resistance broken " serve as support? The daily chart would suggest that $89- $90 is the prior consolidation range- My stop-loss on the buy-stop entry will start at $88.00 . Should price retrace back towards this level, I will follow it closer on a faster time frame chart to try to get a lower entry than a higher momentum purchase.
Was filled on DXJ move higher without either stop-loss being hit- Now holding 55 shares- a full position.
Was filled on the open at the high to add 10 PJP- to the position. I made a repeated error on the trade and can only contribute this to a lack of concentration when adjusting or making multiple trades. I had defined the recent pullback, and- applying a trend line approach-connecting the swing lows -& had extended a line to determine a break in the momentum . I set a stop-loss below the trend line connecting the swing lows for the original position- locks in some gains. I wanted to add to the position on a move higher- Which occurred today at the open- Bought the darn High- which was followed by a reversal lower in the 3rd hour- which took out the auto-filled $1 stop loss. I typically eliminate the auto-fill by adjusting the IB trade with a 'bracket order"- where i set a limit sell price and a stop-loss price- I thought I had made all adjustments for all positions- this am- and not under the gun of having to rush off to work (week of vacation.) Hack also caught my tighter stop-loss $30.20 also catching the absolute price low- Sucks when you get aggressive- but I have held the position for most of May without seeing the ability to get beyond this recent price high range.