WELL! MY Ship has finally arrived and my millions are about to be delivered! I never knew my family was so well-connected! I received this official notice of my forth coming inheritance- I think I will give my 2 weeks notice to my employer tomorrow- Maybe i should wait for the check to arrive????? Of course - I told him to SEND ME The Money!- TO ME: " Mr. LEUNG Cheung <awlec1@outlook.com> 4:43 PM (1 hour ago) to me Dear Friend, Thank you for considering my proposal. Let me formally introduce myself to you. I am Mr. LEUNG Cheung, Executive Director and Head of Personal Banking, Hang Seng Bank Limited. I contacted you concerning an abandoned sum of $22,500,000.00 U.S Dollars. In June 2001, A customer called Aziz Musa Numan came to our bank for business discussions and investment, As the officer in charge of his transaction, I encouraged him to consider various growth of funds with prime ratings. Then he invested Nineteen Million Five Hundred Thousand United State Dollars only. Based on my advice, we were able to spin the initial deposit with profit and interest to 22.5 million U.S Dollars. After few months; my bank (Hang Seng) sent several notice to him, even during the war between U.S and Iraqi. Again after the war another notification was sent but still no response came from him. After series of investigation, I got information that Aziz Musa Numan and his family had been killed during the war in a bomb blast that hit his home at Mukaradeeb. Because of the sensitive nature of private banking, most customers do not nominate next of kin in their investment, also usually in most cases leave their WILLS in our care, in this case; our now deceased client died in-testate. It is quite clear now that our dear client died with no known or identifiable family member. According to practice, the Private banking sector will by the end of this year broadcast a request for statement of claim to Hang Seng Bank Ltd, failing to receive viable claims they will probably revert the deposit to the Management of Hang Seng Bank Ltd. This will result the money entering the Hang Seng accounting system and the portfolio will be out of my hands and out of the private banking division. What bothers me most is that according to the laws of my country at the expiration of Thirteen {13} years the funds will revert to the ownership of the Hong Kong Government if nobody applies to claim the funds. Now, I am prepared to give the necessary details to you as the closest surviving relation of our deceased customer (Aziz Musa Numan). I am also proposing that after a successful execution of the business deal, the funds will be shared in the ratio 40/60. You will get 40% and I will be entitled to 60% as the initiator of the deal. You know that I must have done my home work already before contacting you. Although the project is capital intensive, I know I will be able to pull it through following proper banking and legal channels with your assistance at your end. I will tidy up the legal aspect with the assistance of a lawyer who will prepare all the documents that will be needed to transfer the money from Hong Kong to your country. Once more, I ask that if you find no interest in this project that you should discard this mail and forget I ever contacted you, I ask that you do not be vindictive and destructive; do not destroy my career. Opportunities like this only comes once in a lifetime. I am a family man and this is an opportunity for me to give my family the best in life. I would want you to think about this and let me know if your decision. If you give me positive response, I will give you the relevant INFORMATION for the successful transfer of these funds and we both enjoy it in peace. I await your response. Regards, Mr. LEUNG Cheung Mr. LEUNG Cheung (awlec1@outlook.com) send me my money!
Getting back to the real world, real trades. I was filled on both the pjp ADD- 15 @ $77.29 fill. Brings me up to 45 shares with an average cost including commissions of $77.07. XBI filled 10 @ $226.77. USO declined some -5% today- This is another example of setting a purchase to BUY only if price moves higher -in your direction. My stop-was $19.30 and was never touched. I thought the market was liking and needing to see stronger demand for OIL- Go figure- Hack moved higher- The White house was recently hacked -announce yesterday- FXI- CHINA (no position unfortunately- another example of why one should have a larger window to choose from outside of the US markets. Same with the EEM. myl MYL up 15%-merger proposition; INO -8% possible vaccine for Ebola- One has 50 M volume, the other 2m volume- Individual stocks in this sector may be a lottery ticket- If one was going to take a specific trade between the 2, MYL should be the choice with a 2% Las Vegas investment in something like INO with a trailing stop- I'll stay with the broader PJP or XBI - although "news" is tempting- With the biotech, pharma and some tech moving- One has to look at the QQQ's- For a BUY-stop entry on tomorrows move higher. There is a very well established swing low that has hit 3 times- making 104.25 - 104.50 the bottom range. If I look at the QQQ's- price has been in a very narrow range between 109 & 104.40 - less than a 5% wide range -channel. No brainer that a stop at 104.25 is below the recent multiple pullback lows. but price is now hitting the recent mid channel high $106.75. That only leaves about $2 upside to the prior resistance. But, i think the set-up has potential for a buy-stop- particularly because we are now at a 2nd attempt higher off the recent pullback from the high. The 1st reversal hit 106.80 perhaps- and then retraced -but the pullback did not exceed the recent swing low- So we have a marginally higher 2nd swing low following - and a price move higher- with several days just below the 1st swing low high- In my view- This sets up for a very possible BUY-Stop entry on the move higher. But- pay the insurance premium- and pay up a little higher to not get suckered in an opening $.10 spurt higher executing the stop to fill, followed by a sell-off. Instead, I would bracket this trade for a higher entry - and a tighter sell to improve the Risk to Reward. The wider the buy-stop from the top of the range, the higher the stop-loss one might employ- In the case of the QQQ's This range's intraday high was $106.79 This was also the Mar 30 top area- That does not mean a Buy-stop at $106.82 is giving it some upside room. $.03 on a $100.00+ stock is not giving any thought to the normal -or abnormal volatility of price- At some level, -and not too exact a price- perhaps 1/2 the ATR value- you set an entry level for the Buy-Stop Let's use $107.00 = $.02 = $107.02 as the stop entry our order becomes a market BUY- If price reaches that level - we will BUY- at whatever the order will fill at- In a fast moving market- or in a gap higher Open above our Buy-Stop, we will get filled at a price well exceeding our expectations on the Gap. So, the solution is to attach the Buy-Stop entry price- with a limit price that the order will not get filled at. IB allows this to happen when one places the initial order- I do not think other brokers allow for the same complexity in orders that IB allows. Point is- The Buy-Stop needs to have a limit to prevent from getting filled at a big gap high open- The psychology behind this Buy-Stop- is that price made a 1st reversal that failed- establishes a minor resistance level- Traders bought at that level- and want to get their money back- Price went lower for a few days, and moved bck up- Traders that bought into the 1st reversal are selling and relieved to get their money back close to break even- Now, there is a build up of buy-sell-orders at what may be the starting gate - a positive closing bar the last 2 hours- This is a trade set-up for a Buy-Stop to enter on. If one chooses the higher 107.02 price to enter - $107.20 limit- one also has to have a stop-loss- A gap open may retest the lower price- level and enter into the range- but i would think a stop at 106.30 would withstand the retest- but a wider stop 105.75 Risks more - but- that's a decision each trader makes for himself- If one is going with a momentum move- as their expectation- no need to give back more than necessary. Instead of the QQQ's - I'm looking at the ultra TQQQ- because of the larger possible upside % move. It tracks well- The price bar volatility is wider per bar- so one has to be careful to allow for the wider % swings that are 'normal' But not too wide. Levels of prior price still become valid reasons for an exit. A wide stop would be 103.00 on TQQQ. A buy-stop entry with limit would be $106.45- $107.00. A possible stop-loss would be to consider the limit entry high as the fill and the distance to the stop-loss as a trailing stop % 107 fill -103 stop = $4.00/107 = a 3.7% stop-loss - perhaps round out to 4% on the entry order.- Getting late- Let's look at TQQQ. $107.02 buy-stop - stop-loss $104.80. The assumption is the higher buy-stop will not get filled if the market turns South overnight. The Price Action looks like it may push against the gates- so a momentum market move may occur. the relatively tight stop-loss means a minor $$$ loss if the trade does not go as i expect. Ran out of time to include a chart- this is my actual order for Thursday
I was filled on the TQQQ buy-stop this am 107.04 in the opening minutes. Got the follow up e-mail I was stopped out late am during a price drop lower. That's the trade-off in employing a tight stop- and Buy-stop fills do not always find follow through buyers- I don't know if it was mid morning news that turned the market sour-but that's the likely culprit.
The TQQQ trade ended the day meeting my initial expectation of what might occur. It closed solidly higher - at the highs. Unfortunately, if i had not had such an aggressive stop-loss, I would still be in the trade . Instead of putting my tail between my legs and cowering in the corner because i had a loss in this trade- I will try to get past that emotional reaction and consider WHY I thought the trade was setting up for a higher move above resistance- The move did end up as anticipated- closing higher above the resistance/break-out level. That I was stopped out on intraday volatility was my belief that if price had moved high enough to fill my buy-stop entry, it would not likel;y retrace far enough to also hit my stop-loss- I certainly underestimated the volatility swing that actually occurred intraday. The final 2 hr bar closed above the breakout level- solidly- There is still plenty of positive upside % wise to the prior highs. I will enter a 2nd trade for Friday- This time, I will drop the position size to 15 shares, , the buy-stop will be below the closing price today- hoping to see some weakness and get a decent fill- but the limit will be 108.10 .It's a crap shoot as to what will move the market any day- PJP & XBI are still holding the trades. FXI (no position) is now all momentum - i wouldn't chase it here- even with your money- but it might be instructive to see if it makes a typical climax momentum high .The fast money group thinks it goes higher- Europe is making an all-time high as well- EWJ is up this year - It seems that the rest of the world is catching up to the excess that the US markets have enjoyed- Look at the move in EWH- uup- dollar trade- Tan- solar trade- OIH- oil services sector none of these are original discoveries - i'm simply reviewing some Fast Money mentions as to where market strength is- I really have to find an economical resource to track moving ETF areas for potential trades . A screener that would deliver some ETF higher momentum prospects across the ETF universe- weeding out the very low volume-Something to consider if i hope to outperform the markets this year- Presently i seem to be neck and neck and basically FLAT- -1% Back to TQQQ:
Widened the parameters of TQQQ repurchase- Premarket 6am Nas futures down but slightly- Lots can happen over the next 3.5 hours- It looks like the market is determined to be more positive this week? Fed is off the table for a June rate raise? TQQQ- viewing it on the Daily chart- I assume it will likely move higher, but in case of a lower open, I set a Buy-stop well below it's close- $105.00 with a wider stop-loss under the daily swing low , 99.00 , thinking I will get out early during market hours and adjust the stop higher- It will all depend on how price behaves. PJP looks good, well above the 2 hr ema, while XBI is still moving higher, but without as much momentum. I would likely try a dollar position- had I some cash free- TLT looks on the verge to decline further- See if it holds yesterday's lower close. (No Position)
I was again filled on the TQQQ position and it behaved as I expected it should have done on my initial entry. Markets are climbing, and everything in the trading account is higher today- and i think I'm about to get past where i started this year- About time.... Finger's crossed- This could be a very short lived market in general move higher. Europe/Asia are tearing it up- It so points out to me that I need to have some time to develop a wider perspective- or a resource- Find & Take those better momentum trades - AAPL release today- Not much of a barn burner reaction- in the stock price- Price never moved much- $130.00 would be an entry- on momentum higher- 122.50 is a bail- Faster traders can define the space between. USO-oil- made a swing up today- Possible Buy-stop $18.60- to be a consideration. April 15 is approaching- Traders & investors can contribute to a ROTH Ira account that one can trade within with NO capitol gains taxes- Take advantage - and open a ROTH IRA account with a broker- You have until April 15 to make the money transfer to fund the account- Both Vanguard & TD ameritrade - I'd start with Vanguard- can set you up with a no commission brokerage trading account trading their select ETF's at no charge- This is a no-brainer for anyone that holds a trade for a swing- over several days-
On understanding the Math- of getting back to Break-even- Good basic video for anyone that does not grasp what a recovery from a decine may require:https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?shva=1#inbox/14ca4ec05d6b4abb This is a basic math example- but it is important to recognize that this is basic Math, but many do not understand the concept of % loss and what it takes to recover back to break -even.
4.11.15- Quick note-Saturday- I had to put in 12 hours on the job today-But it's certainly good to have a job- not complaining...Some trade-offs: in terms of personal time - demands of the job schedule require some additional work in off hours. Simply not much time to illustrate and post many charts- but since I'm basically a visual - show me- type of person, - Paint me a picture- I tend to think this is the most informative - for others as well as myself. Here's my disclaimer guys & gals- For anyone just reading this thread recently- I think I made this known early on- but worth repeating.... I underperformed the market (trading account) last year with only a 12% return- MKT 14% Or SO...gains. This was a very successful year in the IB trading account- relative to prior years- where the market average returns were even higher- but my trading was not. This improved result is attributed to adopting a fastertime frame approach, but catching some longer trending moves and allowing them to run..... Also limiting some discretionary choices- - Known as Impulse Trades- trading on those 'feelings' you have about where the market should be heading. Was it not johnny Carson that would don the garb and headress of a fortune teller on late nite? Some of you reading this may wonder who Johnny Carson was.....Yes? Anyways, My presence here on IB is 1st and foremost self-serving- For the remainder of this year... What I may be viewed as promoting - method or investment- is simply a narrow reflection of what i interpret at the moment- Day, Week, Month. Quite possibly not suitable for anyone else- So, Consider anything read here as not being advice- but subject matter for comparisom only. I am down just slightly for the year- and want to see how I execute over the next 8 months .... If I end up outperforming the markets (SPY) at that time, I will feel that the additional focus required will be justified. If not, why waste the time and energy- just go with a diversified allocation model and take the boat and go fishing! Enjoy life with the kids and the wife- and be a part of it! Now that the Disclaimer is updated- There are limitations in trading within smaller accounts- Sad reality- but commission costs are a real factor in one entering or stopping out on a small account- Also , Conventional allocation of trades with a narrow position sizing loss of less than -2% - What if you have 5 trades on- diversified you think- but all are highely correlated to movements in SPY- If you have all 5 on for a 5% Risk, and the market moves and the Tide pulls everything lower- All of your positions follow the tide. You suddenly stop-out or are negative on all positions- It's important to recognize that holding a bunch of different positions does not necessarily give you the protection you think you are getting- You have sector overlap, Index overlap, and Market overlap- The solution is to hold positions that are not correlated to the same market moves- This is called Diversification- For someone wanting to make a lot of money just trading a single future or index- this may seem counter intuitive to achieving the fast fortune- For the investor- this is a sound long term approach with periodic rebalancing to keep things functioning. For those interested in such quaint concepts- off the top of my head: 'The Ivy Portfolio" mebane Faber "unconventional Success" David Swenson Might be worth while reading for those seeking to grasp a different picture/focus. Just consider the supposed statistics of the market professional advisor- Some 80- 85% fail to perform as well as the benchmark index. Over time, 5-10 year periods- the net result is even lower- it is likely less than 5% outperform over longer periods of time. It's not just performance- At what costs are the performance ratings achieved? There is a large body of evidence suggesting that long term sustainable asset growth is best served by passive-low cost -diversified invsting. This is a wake-up call for Investors paying higher expense ratio fees, 12-b-1 fees etc. Check out Vanguard for comparisom. I mentioned previously that Tax time- Time to allocate Funds to your retirement account is upon us- April 15 is the deadline- There are lots of advantages- including tax -capitol gains- by trading within a retirement- favorably a Roth account- Don't overlook this simple but potentially very large tax advantage- I will be funding this year's full Roth allocation - likely into the IB trading account- At this time, I have confidence that I can both implement this TA approach and also broaden my investment horizons to find better trending market segments.
Sunday 4.12.15- Had to spend most of the day at work to take care of some issues while the Facility is closed to public access- Did start the Bank Transfer process to add $6,500 to the IB account- Since i'm getting to be an old so and so, I can contribute that amount to the Roth. The transfer application seemed to go OK- until IB provided a printout that suggested i would need to go in person to the bank and authorize the transfer of funds- I will do that Monday- tomorrow- For my wife- we will be funding her 2014 Roth in her Vanguard Roth brokerage account- Separate - and different approaches altogether are employed. To those reading this thread-If you are not yet taking advantage of starting a brokerage account within a Roth IRA- you may be missing a large opportunity. If you have a conventional brokerage account- and are paying capitol gains taxes- Swing $5k into the Roth- every year- and trade inside it- Gains are not taxed- unless you make withdrawals. Even if you get nothing else of value from this thread- Take the Roth IRA brokerage account and thank me in 20 years -LOL- You still have time to open such an account for the 2014 tax year! You could- if you have the assets- Fund $5k for 2014 before April 15, and on April 16 fund 5k for 2015- and you have a 10k trading account within a Roth umbrella. Even for traders that cannot get their hands on 5k- You can open a no-expense- no fees Roth IRA with TDameritrade or Vanguard- Vanguard has a 3,000.00 opening balance requirement- I'm not sure about Ameritrade. You can then choose to trade- if Vanguard is the choice- from 40 commission free ETF's or $7.00 fee for market ETF's..... Those with smaller accounts should really consider trading these ETF's in accounts that offer them commission free!. I don't have a lot of free time, and I don't get to read a lot of stuff- Elsewhere's or on ET for that matter-I'm really mostly on the dark side of the moon ....... but -this weekend-I caught a very recent thread where a trader mentioned Brooks and subsequent improvements in his trading- and the reaction was quite strong- With some guys jumping in wanting to see P & L statements- screenshots and all that kind of documentation-prove it or be labeled as False etc. I had to read the entire thread- some 14 pages- in one sitting- Like the moth attracted to the flame- you have to read this stuff- and discard the chaff and retain the wheat- because- within all the discord and personalities- there are indeed voices that give some reason and clarity- and are not all emotional about it. I should have book marked the thread-and posted the link ..... but FWIW- the discussion that ensued brought out a lot of the pent up emotion some traders feel strongly about- but past the emotion- there is some value in the exchange. Ignoring the emotional aspects and exchanges- and some trying to put in a balanced perspective- Have to respect that..... It's about what you take away personally when you read this stuff- whether it is there- or here in this thread- that read prompted my prior disclaimer . What resonated out of that exchange was the question- repeated- But... "What's the Trading Plan? " When I asked myself- OK- what is MY trading plan- I got to 1st base perhaps - I see the swing low, take the following swing entry higher, ride the trend and CaChing- And I think that is - for me personally- a very valid and unanswered question- I think that is also what most traders face- They have a general outline- But it has not been put through the paces- As a trader- i think I am past most of the common emotional anxieties- by just a smidgen.... To illustrate this idea- I was stopped out on my recent TQQQ trade- but then reentered the next day long- I think this is the foundation of starting to employ a consistent TA approach- A prior-more emotional me would have felt the bee sting and retreated. I immediately stepped back in to make the follow up buy-..... Does this make sense? If you believe in technicals- ultimately are the correct path- then you take each and every valid signal- Until you get to the point that you feel the signal is not valid as a higher % entry- or exit. If I believe i hold a technical approach that succeeds, I need to employ it until I prove that it is either the approach- or my application of that approach- that is the variable- And how many of us have the resources- time- money- to withstand the variations/permutations the market can throw out there? What is the Trading Plan? OK- I believe I have a technical advantage in employing the faster time frame charts- Technically, I'm fairly adept when it comes to charts- perhaps above average ....... What do I trade? - I' m limited- My focus is 2 hours in the pm - most of that playing DVR catch-up with Fast money. i have become aware that my view of the trading universe is really minute- There is momentum outside of my blinders...... Goodness, there is a wide universe to select from- Perhaps the best environment to succeed in- is to recognize when one stream is over fished, and the other is just coming into season.... What is the trading plan? For the Ib Account- aggressive trading- larger positions- Momentum focused- I see 4-5 positions- $3,000.00 ea- partial entry and add to full size- desiring to capture a multi-month trend- Not all in the same universe though- I tend to overweight Pharma and Biotech- and that is mostly US centric- In looking to diversify- both the Risk and the reward- My horizons need to expand. Exposure to foreign markets are lacking- Choices to be made- This sounds like I'm heading towards an allocation model/ ? That may be most appropriate for my time allotment and market conditions- and my Risk constraints..... As i consider all of this tonight- With the market to open for the next week- I'm holding wider stops than I would normally employ- to stay clear of some volatility swings- But the trade off -is that if one waits- to make the 'safer' trade- one buys at the top- Glad i can fall back to a day job.......
Both the Dow & S&P sold off about .5% today, while the Nas lost just .15. TQQ of course gave back more. Interestingly- the XBI closed up over1% Higer- As i look at the indexes this evening, and then the charts of my positions-I noticed something in common on most of the price action- Everything started off out of the gates with enthusiasm- moving higher- the first 30 minutes or so, and then the selling began- XBI- managed to move consistently higher until mid day- and then gave back some gains. Just when I congratulated myself the other day on my reentry in TQQQ- and i widened my stops to not get caught by minor volatility- and price has still closed in positive territory today- but only slightly above my reentry, after having moved up smartly to 111.00 only to give it all back and close well below the prior day's close. As i drop down to an even faster 15 minute chart- the story unfolds in each 15 minute bar- Had i been watching intraday- after seeing that bullish open only to watch it decline throughout the morning., breaking the bullish 109 close of yesterday about 1 pm- and declining further to close at 108.29- I would have been out of the trade on such weakness and break of the recent uptrend. On the 2 hour chart, I have the remaining 2 bars of the day decling and making closes below the fast ema-. No time to illustrate- but if you plug in a 2 hr time frame chart and plug in a 5 ema- you see the price holding above on prior momentum, and then declining- today. Even if I use a slower ema as a 'warning' - say the 10 ema- I still have a closing bar below- But looking at the fast chart for how price performed intraday comes with a too-close a look - for one desiring to get on a possible trend and to allow it to run. My initial reaction, is to set a very close stop under the price low- Viewing the daily chart-a different story is presented- Today's price close is still well above the daily 5 ema, also above yesterday's open- Weakness on the daily will put the price below my entry- but - that's trading- If I had not been as rigid on the initial entry- and gotten stopped out on volatility- I would perhaps be sitting well in profitable territory with a stop that would now be moved to my entry cost- This single bar looks very toppish- but so did the recent bar on 4.7- which was followed by this bullish run. I'll go with a higher stop now at $106.00- on this position. That will be another loss if executed in TQQQ. Raised Stops on PJP & XBI $78 & $226.00 If taken out there- both would be net gains. The account has gradually crept back higher - and i'm close to where i started this year- These last stops will lock in net profits if hit- but I am hoping to see some market strength and these positions resume their leadership potential they held in the past. The chart- in hindsight- will tell us if that occurs.....