Live Cattle - Top ?

When you say "good level"...do you mean for SELLING or BUYING ?

Another idea: could this be an "FBO" (False Break Out) ?

 

Sorry, you may not be familiar with ACD. Long term trends more often then not typically end at their QTR levels which is the level I highlighted in the image. That does not mean it needs to be this level, but if that level holds as the high, then it's highly likely it will mark the end of the long term trend.

I don't look at false breakouts or stuff like that. I'm simply giving you my perspective from the lens of the ACD approach. Just one man's opinion. And no, I didn't draw that line in there today. That line was printed the first week of July.

 

October contract hit 159.800.....and then backed off.
Can it break 160 even ?
This is starting to look like a blow-off top.

 

Do you have a position?

 

If this market is toppy and it might be, who knows, why is not in steep backwardation?

 

Because "normally" summer months are priced lower than winter ones( check historical datas for Aug/Feb spreads for example ), so this year with the tight supply/demand situation, the differential between them is nil( but still no backwardation )

Here are some people who know better( see attachment )

 

So what did the "Cattle on feed" report say?

Trading ended at 13:55 CST before the report was released at 14:00 CST

 

Not yet. Waiting for a clear signal.

 

Dunno, but Oct contract only down 1/2 penny today. High was 159.775.

160 is a huge level.....

 

Overall, report was neutral to slightly bearish:

- Cattle on Feed slightly lower than expected (means more head of cattle (supply) are on feed)
- Placements much lower than expected
- Marketings as expected