You realize what you are saying, right? That you have cracked the code to consistent profits. You have this quantified and all the stats PhD's are still working on it. Seriously!? Surf
None of the TA crowd can actually prove that they can make money with it (only ever hindsight stuff), and Surf probably can't prove that TA doesn't work. Best just to agree to disagree?! lol
lol. You posted a range. Whatever happened after that, yout would have come back and claimed that you 'called it' If you ever want any credit, you'll have to make a real call like the guys in the ES thread. I'll leave you all too it. I've seen this argument about 80 times, and nobody ever 'mans up' and so its never resolved.
It's not a question of calling anything but of noting the conditions for a trade. If you don't know how to trade a breakout, then it's up to you to learn how. As for making "real calls like the guys in the ES thread", if I were making and acting upon those calls, I'd be broke (aside from the fact that there is no such thing as a "real call" on a message board).
Surf, I am basically sympathetic to your position. The likes of Brooks who go blah blah blah without a single statistic to support their position are full of it. If some people can flog their methods every chance they get, complete with links to other forums, you have as much right to advance your POV. Just don't make a nuisance of yourself in the journals. But your fixation with PhDs and academic research is nonsense. Even if I tried, I couldn't fuck up like LTCM, so let's give the academics a rest. Real world traders, without unlimited capital, grinding it out day after day. That's the only thing worth discussing on ET.
If it didnt break out it wouldnt be a break out. All you, and others like you, is post the past as if it was some kind of revelation. I dont get it
DB, I have a question. While I'm not new to TA, I have a lot to learn and your following quote confuses me, and I'm sure would confuse others: "TA is not the use of past price and volume to make predictions about future price". Maybe I'm misreading, but, what about "measured moves" and should price targets based on supply/demand (TA) be thrown out? Thanks.