I'll leave this here until tomorrow as it's almost midnight, Friday night. Enjoy your evening, welcome to the weekend.
I agree with what you're saying here. I feel I do have an edge, but I have to wait for certain situations to arise. And even then, I swing trade multiple positions so that diversification works in my favor. If you show me a chart and say "what's next", that's a way harder question than asking me to select a chart that is more predictable. And again, the prediction is only a few bars at most. I think it makes sense to develop a FEW good buy in signals and a FEW good sell signals. Then try to select your purchase based on as many of the buy in signals as possible. But if one sell signal is triggered, that's enough to get out. Also...and this is important...trying to go long in a down market is a bad idea 9 times out of 10. In those situations, like today, I feel I need many reasons to jump in, and any excuse to close a long position is a good one. The difficult part is that I work a day job, and it's hard to check on progress. If I didn't, who knows? But give me a ticker and I'll give you an honest opinion on a swing trade.
Cool. I think you're using the candle colors opposite how I do. Here it looks like red means the close was higher (bullish). I'm not changing my answer...it wants to rally. It is forming a penant, which (is supposed to) mean that it will jump one way or the other. Notice how the bottoms are rising? That's a bullish indicator. The last candle looks like someone put in a limit sell order too low...the fact that the last three candles are bullish are all good. The last three troughs were "V" notches...indicating that the owners aren't fooled by manipulation. Trough bottoms all line up, which is sort of a fractal thing...also bullish. If it were my money, I'd bet that it was about to jump upward soon and test one of the higher highs.
They are people on this post claiming that market direction is so important and yet this guy meir barack(whom by watching his videos i consider to really know what hes doing) is claiming that there really isnt a huge effect , well when trading intraday. Not huge but rather small . So once again i come to an inevitable road of confusion
Heh...just because someone made a video doesn't mean anything. Here's the thing...if you're trying to day trade a long position in the ABC company on a down day, picture what is happening. Joe Blow owns a totally different stock...the XYZ company. XYZ gets hammered and Joe gets a margin call. Where will Joe get the cash? Luckily, Joe owns ABC stock, so he'll sell that. Even if you're playing a foreign stock, the same thing will happen. Ever hear the expression that when the U.S. stock market catches cold, the world sneezes? Margin calls and need for capital. Maybe Meir knows his stuff...but a down day creates subtle downward pressure on all stocks. The shorter your time frame, the less effect...but it is there. On a down day, if you must day trade, you can try a very non-volatile, non-leveraged short fund. As long as the downward trend is in effect, even poor decision making can yield positive results. Edit: Check ticker "SDS", for example.
ah i see. i always felt that instead of the markets direction the stocks overall trend from daily to the minute was a much more important indicator on how things for intraday would go. but what do i know. how long did it take you before you began to make consistent profits. And could you help me out with any good books on intraday trading techinques and strategies?
What if win = +10 and lose = -3? Then we have -3+10+10-3-3-3-3+10-3-3-3+10 = +16 8 losses.... 4 wins.... hence only a 33% win rate via your random distribution, but still profitable with a 1:3 risk to reward ratio. Not bad eh?
So far i made about 5 trades in the last 2 months and its been win 1 lose 4 LOL. so the downtrend for me is starting and it looks like theres no support in sight .
Money management + edge = Consistent profits I'm not exactly there yet, but I know its possible. I say this because for months and months, I did the exact opposite. I would take my losses, but never my wins. I would get out for 1 point profit, and hang on for a 5 point loss. I was consistently losing every single day. If a person can be a consistent loser, then there must be something going on to attain that consistency, and hence, turned upside down, it could prove to be something that works. The trick is to really get through that string of -3-3-3-3. I think with a good trading plan, you won't have that many in a row, but its possible I'm sure, and you can't let it affect you.