It's very easy to know when the fall occurs if you have access to the right information. The fall will occur when all shorters are out. So if you know where all the short positions are, you will get a better idea on the timing. Currently all noobies are trying to short it. The higher if goes, the more pile in. Once it dawns on them the market isn't falling and all go long. That's when the fall will happen. So yes, no one will see it coming because they will be too busy looking in the other direction.
Until the FED reverses course and raises rates and/or shrinks balance sheet, a crash is unlikely, imo. Problem with raising rates now is the national debt. Half the national debt has an 18 month maturity, and the budget will not survive a doubling in service payments. That said, we're at the end of conventional central banking policy. FED and Government have painted themselves into a corner. Rates cannot increase, yet liquidity will have be withdrawn from the system.
no no no, you are still calling for top, which is wrong. As long as you do that, s&p will never top. Don't you know this market is completely manipulated by computers, with trillions of dollar in their back, they can manipulate the market in any direction, how far will it go, how long does it take to complete, how big or small the correcton is, etc... Everything is under control byeond your reasonal imagination. Don't you understand? All you need to do is buy. You don't need to think twice Because the computer players are invincible, compared with them ,human players is nothing.
Looks like the market is powering ahead. Time for shorters to average down by adding more contracts/positions. How far can this go, eh ?
Wow wow wow China cuts interest rates to spur growth and futures are melting up....but wait a second ....I thought China was already enjoying 7-8% gdp ...why are they cutting their rates? This is getting to be unreal at this point. Every country is lowering rates and pushing QE through their own system ....im telling you in years to come this is going to be the end of it all for the markets. How can the markets cheer this news ....China has been building ghost cities and malls...roads to no where to keep their gdp inflated and now they are cutting their interest rates to boost growth. Let's just pump trillions of dollars into the world.financial system and take rates rates to 0%....there is zero organic growth left in this world.
Yes, we like ghost cities and malls... that's my favourite... As long as the price of real estates goes up, it can cover the real gdp growth of china, which makes it look like 7%plus even 8% or 9% this year or even next year as to show the world that china has still been developing very quickly. We have been doing it for years... Although most population have been complaining about the sky real estate price(increase ten times over ten years), you have to work 30 even 50 years to buy a house, no complaint is listened. compared with the american people who will just need to work for several years to buy a house. In that way, you are quite lucky regardless overall the situation for ordinary american people has been deteriorating. I hate the chinese central bank, a lot of people hate it! It ruins millions of peopl's dream to buy a house! Fuck it!
Maybe you are a chinese farmer who has never been to abroad much. Mortgages take a life time to pay off all over the world. Why must you feel it should be different for the chinese ? Further, the population in the west have no choice about starting wars all over the world and making themselves bankrupt. The chinese population have this choice, yet you don't thank your government. The main problem with china is that there are too many farmers who know too little and believe everything in the foreign movies are real.
No, you don't get what I am saying. Of course I know morgage. What I am saying if you compare the average annual income of the society with the real estate price, there is a ratio which measures the affordability of the real estate in your country. And ratio in america is round 4-5 which means your can buy a house ideallly after working for 4-5 years. But the ratio in china is around 20 even 50 for some people which the price of the real estate is sky rockey high and some people can never, i mean never have enough saving to be the initial deposit to buy a house. Even they make it the initial deposit, still, they can never buy a house because the monthly morgage is much higher than their monthly income, sounds ironic, erh? that's the truth. And the goverment only cares about the price of the real estate and land because they contribute to the consititute of gdp(categorized as fixed cost investment). So the tragedy, the government is more than happy to see the lifting of the price of the real estate and land while most people can't afford to buy a house.
I am not in the US. Can anyone from US confirm this ? This kind of stuff seems a bit brain dead to me. I am losing all hope on china. They seem to have a population who know nothing much. A population like that is dangerous.