LOL!!! If you cant quantify probabilities, they do not exist. You can not quantify your trading probabilities, therefore they are imaginary and do not exist. For others--- how many up bars or series on a chart plus whatever other mumbo jumbo you wish to add increase the odds that the next bar or series will be in the same direction? Its impossible to quantify this. Therefore "price action" has nothing to do with reality. Surf
As I said . . . If you have nothing new, why do you persist? By repeating the same mantra you become an attention whore. Either offer something substantive or move on.
If you dont believe that the correct way to think about the market is substantive, you are beyond help. I hope others here "get the point". Let's allow them to decide. Peace surf
Agreed, but you're missing my point which isn't about systems at all. :eek: A significant aspect of the activity of trading itself, regardless of model, method, framework, system, whatever you want to call it, is psychology, most notably fear. Letting a loser run, cutting a winner short because it feels so good to be finally in the black, failing to execute a planned entry, those are irrational and caused by fear (of loss, of being "wrong", whatever else). Douglas' Zone addresses that for newcomers. He reminds them that anything can always happen and provides advice to help build trust in their own plan. That's valuable. I've seen plenty of posters on ET who'd benefit greatly from giving his Zone a (second?) read. (Like I always say, just skip the metaphysical 20% about "voodoo energies" where he clearly should have consulted anyone with a high school diploma before printing...)
You know... I actually liked the section on energies (not in the voodoo sense though). Where he talks about being afraid of the dog, this isn't something you can just turn off like a light switch just because you logically understand that not every dog will bite you. So this energy that you give to the fear can only be overcome by a different energy, by putting the focus elsewhere I think, putting the energy into something else, and then this will naturally just pull energy away from that fear. This is how I understood it at least and it makes sense to me. Put another way, its like this perhaps. If you are doing something wrong, its easy to say just don't do it, but its hard to do. So instead of focusing on not doing it, focus on doing things right. I wonder if I could try to use smoking as an example (I don't smoke though so I may be wrong about this). Smoking everyone knows is bad, but its really difficult to just tell yourself not to do it. So instead, focus on living better. Eat better, exercise, put yourself in a different environment not conducive to smoking. After a while, perhaps this new found lifestyle you will find you enjoy more, you put more energy into living better, and the energy that was put into smoking and feeding the habit will slowly diminish.
Well, computers don't feel fear and that's what you are trading against. If your own plan is flawed, trust in it is worse than not trusting it. How can you know your plan makes sense if it can not be quantified. Sorry, but these are real questions that every investor must face. surf The bottom line is, if you do not have a quantifiable edge, use money management to stay in the game long enough for LUCK to smile upon you. This can work! just realize what it is rather than making up stuff to make yourself feel better about your wins/losses. surf
A more interesting question is why people keep bumping this thread if everyone is so tired of hearing about it? There is a quantifiable edge. But one has to do the testing to find it. But you wouldn't know anything about that, mostly because you have no idea what the "plan" is.
Most of the charts I see involving someone discussing an analysis or trade strategy...they do contain specific details about what's on the chart. Thus, I guess we spend our time here at ET paying attention to different ET members that post charts. As to videos, I seen plenty of them on Youtube by others involving discussions about trendlines, supply/demand, Wyckoff and many other concepts I've seen mentioned in this thread and other threads...many of the videos are very good in their presentation of the concepts. The question now is what the heck you're looking at to believe this stuff isn't out there ?