So would you rather be short at all time highs or long? Or more directly, would you buy the market here or go short if you don't have any existing position?
No shit It's a cooler. Love your threads btw neke, have been following them for many years. Now I do have to make a shoutout to Dolemite, he saved me 3 grand due to bringing some perspective into this. Still going to be a very painful day
I'll chime in on the misery loves company theme. I'm still long GDX from $40 in 2013 , right now it's 22. I planned on holding for at least 5 years, but still painful to watch right now because I am in it heavier than I should be so that money is pretty dead to me (at least right now) Maybe I can transfer the shares to my grandkids when I die someday and It'll have a profit. lol but with so much QE WTF!!! Gold is suppose to go up!!!!! I just quoted this earlier " I was an analyst for years and got rich as a technician" Pit Bull I thought I was smart but I don't feel so smart at this moment in time for that trade/investment.
That kind of day. Thanks again Dolemite for keeping my loss < 10k today (not much less but still at least it wasn't 5 digits).
Not my point. My point is: know your market and trade your market. That's high-probability trading. For example, I have a custom trend indicator. What makes it great is not only does it catch good trends, it also shuts down during chop. Most trend indicators don't do that, which is where whipsawing comes into play. My indicator acts when the market condition is 'good' (trending) and shuts down when the market condition is 'bad' (chopping). Of course 'good' and 'bad' would be reversed if I was using an equally well-designed rtm indicator. The OP is using what are almost certainly conventional rtm indicators which is why he's losing his shirt in a bull market. If he's not adaptive enough to switch strategies based on market conditions, then he better learn to be adaptive enough to stop trading when the market conditions are wrong for his indicators.
Unfortunately it is from experience watching a market move one way while my neg. gamma makes it worse and worse. With a market like this you know a retracement is coming you just don't know when! If you think the market can't go up any more just pull up a 3yr weekly chart (minimize the entire 3 years so it fits on the screen) and tell yourself that your are picking this spot as the top. Sometimes I think we as traders get too caught up in the trees and don't notice the forest. Good luck!
I'll refer you to the classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Reading it will show you how to gage how late in the game you are. Markets do not turn all at once. You'll have to decide if the high momentum plays have had their day and set up for swing shorts even as you stay long some big cap names that are still pushing the averages higher. As a bull or bear gets long in the tooth you are much more likely to have a market of stocks rather than a stock market. A friend of mine has recently expressed the opinion that recent weakness in a number of momentum stocks -- Tesla is a good example -- could well be the canary in the coal mine. Yet unlike coal mining where the dying canary tells you to run not walk out lots of money can be taken out of stocks that are still in a bull phase even as the dying ones are good shorts.
Hang on gamblingman! It is darkest before the dawn. In your honor I have decided not to change my underwear until we get a down day. Last time it only took 3 trading days.
How does the rest of your family -- particularly the wife or GF -- feel about your underwear methodology?