My rationale was based on my belief that the AUD is absurdly overvalued against just about every currency out there, but given EUR and USD monetary policy, the risk was too great either the ECB or the Fed would come out with more easing (I still believe they will). CAD, like AUD, is a commodity currency, but more weighted towards oil. There was no justification for a multi year high in the pair match up. As oil has been strengthening lately, and the end of the month always tends to be a stronger CAD (due to oil inflows) the timing seemed as good as it would get. There has been a bounce this morning, but it broke an important trend line and unless something changes significantly, the trend is now down, with the next major trendline down around 1.02. All I have to do is buckle in and hang on.
Down to 1.0520, 230 pips profit at the moment. It's retesting last nights lows. Let's see if it breaks through. If it does not, my bet is it will on the third try.
As I suspected, it bounced again off the support (lower low, though) and now is going to try for a third attempt. I think this might be the break lower I am looking for.
A decisive snap through support on AUD/CAD at the 1.0530 mark breaks the uptrend in place and now we move down to the 1.0450 area. As I suspected, the break was on the third try. the USD/HUF trade is not looking so hot, but still has potential to swing.
AUD/CAD continues to break down, now at the 1.0413 print. This trade has a little more room to go. USD/HUF also looking good after last week. AUID/CAD trade is up 335 pips or so. USD/HUF trade is up 200 pips.
AUD/CAD now down to 1.0380, moved stop to 1.05, locking in 250 pips. Picture continues to improve (for the trade) and 1.0150 is in the cards. USD/HUF continues to float around same spot as yesterday, but trade still has potential.
The AUD/CAD position still looks quite healthy. The USD/HUF position was stopped out at 219.80. Loss was about $800.
AUD just got hammered because of weak China PMI, and as a result, AUD/CAD just broke through strong support. At 1.0315, it looks good for the move to the target. Trade is up 435 pips at the moment.
AUD/CAD position just closed. Outlook is getting cloudy and major support was touched at 1.0270. Just closed trade at 1.0275. 475 pips, or $9,584 in profit.