1270. This is the massive BEAR TRAP level, set-up by firms all over the planet. Flush weak longs and then ...... BAM......1500. IF support and resistance and trend lines really worked, 90% of traders would not lose!!! Anyone looking at lines would be rich!!!!! LOL
Interesting. Let s see if 1270/1280 holds first. Your set up level @1270 by "firms" (GS? JPM? Paulson & Friends? Dark pools? etc) reaffirms a "conspiracy theory" that just doesn't seem really realistic here. Humans just try to make money, as you and i (greed) and just quit if they loose (fear). Maybe for the case of gold, some smart money try to catch some weak hands below supports ? But below 1270 we begin to be deep in the red zone I think, and bye bye Moving Average 200 days. At least i agree with your 1500 target for the bull scenario (1500 is a line by the way!) and the 90% losers proportion. Wait & see.
I will call my Chinese and Indian hedgers, then conference call with some Russians to see what levels they care about. They have never seen a chart. They have never heard of a MA. They just know what prices they must buy and what prices they must sell. I will call them now.......collect. I will then call the miners in Canada and see what their pain threshold is with gold under 1270. I think 1190 is more important to them. They might then shut down production. I will send them a postcard. haha
That's what I've been trying to get istoptime to see why I didn't liquidate my positions - the smart money are always doing this kind of stuff, messing with peoples' STOPS and shaking our resolve. I generally give them a wide berth and stay way below other peoples' STOPs. I like to give my positions breathing room.
Chris, $1283 had figured very strongly in my original play because its the monthly timeframe 38.2% Fibo support. It was creaking and there's no guarantee it will hold firm and slingshot my positions. As you can see, it is defo doing some support because it has arrested the dramatic price drop. On the 1H it might be hard to see this because Gold dropped to 1272 - but I believe the difference of $12-25 fits in with the thickness of the monthly support.
$1182.49 is the June 3rd low so if they are saying $1190 its close enough and good enough. If you're calling all these fellas conference call might as well call Barack Obama and tell him to get these IRS agents out of Thailand - these cats are scaring the daylights out of the American expats here.
But since you mentioned shenanigans, have you noticed we have a Golden Cross in Gold since March 2014 and its still going strong? Institutions play the cross bigtime so they could be doing all kinds of tricks now to scare us off. Fact remains 50x200 sma is strongly positive
They do work but if you're using them on 1 minute charts etc. they have less relevance - as you go up in the timeframes they start becoming very useful - weekly and monthly they work 95% of the time
I'll be a very lucky fella if the Dow Jones 1-hour wedge breaks down and at the same time Gold fires north with a 5 ft green bar