Found this in a comment section on another forum, its not mine, but very interesting to repost here, So right now were sitting at around a 19.93PE probably over 20 at todays close, the list shows the highest PE's during the last 75+ years and the correction that followed them, seems the most shallowest correction was 11% back in 1959, I would probably rule out this chart if the market had 5 or 6 10%+ corrections along the way of this 6 year bull run, but we haven't had any so the bigger the ride up usually brings a nice pretty little correction on the way down....right now the s$p sits just up above 2100, so even if did rally to 2400 this year or even 2685 the following year and over 3000 by 2017 without the slightest pull back and we were to go into a recession with a significant pull back you would probably be able to buy the s$p cheaper in 2 or 3 years than you can today! The average correction was 38.71%, I ruled out the 30% where it shows FEB 2015 highlighted in BLUE because we haven't had a correction yet ... so using the average 38% correction on s$p 3000 brings you down to 1860....say if there is a 30% this year at s$p 2200 that would drop it all the way down to 1540, so I feel there is more downside risk in this market than upside, however with the fed propping up everything who knows if these historical facts hold true, maybe the market goes another 3 or 4 decades without a correction of any kind, maybe a meaningful correction in the future will be anything between 1-3%. Here is a list of the highest ttm p/e's during non-recessionary periods, and the correction that closely followed them. Apr 1999: 34 (-49%) June 1946: 22.12(-23%) Aug 1987: 21.42 (-33.5%) Sep 1929: 20.19 (-89%) Oct 2007: 20.68 (-57%) Feb 2015: 19.91 (-30%?) Dec 1968: 18.49 (-34.7%) Dec 1972: 18.30 (-48%) Jan 1966: 17.81 (-22%) Jul 1959: 17.52 (-11%) Jun 1990: 16.95 (-19.9%)
I love 100% up room to go with ZERO risk holding long over the weekend!! GO MARKET $$$ too much fear out there still.... crush those bears and top callers
got to love a $9,000US cell phone....only for the elite. Wonder if the top is near <iframe src="http://player.theplatform.com/p/gZWlPC/cnbc_global?playertype=synd&byGuid=3000358451&size=530_298" width="530" height="298" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" bgcolor="#131313"></iframe>
3 out of 12 bull markets since WW2 have lasted this long, hmmmmmm http://www.cnbc.com/id/102469005 March has been a winner for stocks in 2 out of 3 years since World War II, he added, and the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.25 percent for the month of March in that time frame. As the bull market heads to its March 9 anniversary, Stovall also notes that only 3 of the 12 bull markets since World War II have lasted this long. However, he believes the current bull run could continue as stocks are not fully valued.
Had Apple been substituted for 29 of the 30 Dow components last June, the index would have been higher. The only Dow member that would have had more of a positive influence on the index than Apple is Visa. If Apple had replaced a badly lagging stock such as IBM, which has dropped more than 13 percent since Apple's split, the Dow would now be about 450 points higher than its Friday close at 18132.70 (and have gained 9.8 percent rather than the 7.1 percent increase it has recorded, without dividends). http://www.trust.org/item/20150302151621-gmqqs/
You would think on a day when the nasdaq touched 5000, 15 years in the making that volume would surge nearly 3X its avg daily volume, hey maybe 1.5 times its daily avg volume but nope volume isn't even close to its average of 34 million shares, will be lucky to cross 22 million shares by the close! You would think with such a number, nasdaq 5000 it would create much more volume, again volume is drying up everywhere, SPY, DIA, QQQ not even making daily average volumes anymore! PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) -NasdaqGM Watchlist 109.23 0.83(0.77%) 3:09PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price Add to Portfolio Prev Close:108.40 Open:108.61 Bid:109.04 x 41800 Ask:109.05 x 5000 NAV:N/A Net Assets:N/A YTD Return (Mkt):N/A Day's Range:108.59 - 109.29 52wk Range:83.28 - 109.29 Volume:17,392,292 Avg Vol (3m):34,570,000 P/E (ttm):N/A Yield (ttm):N/A
In 20 trading days nasdaq DOWN only 5 times!!!!!!!!! up over 5%%% in FEB alone, I think the nasdaq could probably do 3-5% each month which would mean a close above 6500 by end of 2015!!!!! Free money ZERO RISK!!! NASDAQ 10,000 by mid 2016 with all the central banks printing free worthless money!! Imagine if the nasdaq was down 15 times in 20 trading days, QE fucking 4 would be here immediately March 2nd 5008 Date Feb 27, 20154,985.034,989.254,960.874,963.531,955,590,0004,963.53 Feb 26, 20154,969.274,989.114,955.514,987.891,905,550,0004,987.89 Feb 25, 20154,960.364,984.244,956.004,967.141,848,560,0004,967.14 Feb 24, 20154,956.214,971.184,945.144,968.121,834,890,0004,968.12 Feb 23, 20154,953.104,960.974,939.564,960.971,754,850,0004,960.97 Feb 20, 20154,919.784,957.024,905.594,955.971,761,140,0004,955.97 Feb 19, 20154,901.514,929.534,900.634,924.701,592,890,0004,924.70 Feb 18, 20154,890.844,907.504,885.604,906.361,684,800,0004,906.36 Feb 17, 20154,889.994,901.894,880.644,899.271,751,490,0004,899.27 Feb 13, 20154,869.734,893.844,860.124,893.841,942,240,0004,893.84 Feb 12, 20154,828.084,857.614,823.574,857.612,075,470,0004,857.61 Feb 11, 20154,788.374,810.364,780.134,801.181,793,630,0004,801.18 Feb 10, 20154,754.634,793.274,737.124,787.641,773,730,0004,787.64 Feb 9, 20154,723.734,749.474,719.614,726.011,654,680,0004,726.01 Feb 6, 20154,768.844,787.184,731.224,744.402,034,060,0004,744.40 Feb 5, 20154,729.654,767.384,722.804,765.102,036,590,0004,765.10 Feb 4, 20154,699.814,744.334,697.794,716.702,212,960,0004,716.70 Feb 3, 20154,693.254,727.744,670.824,727.742,153,520,0004,727.74 Feb 2, 20154,650.604,676.694,580.464,676.692,006,450,0004,676.69 Jan 30, 20154,671.214,703.814,631.104,635.242,264,230,0004,635.24
my next question is when is the FED going to tighten?? aren't markets forward looking which means with all these great earnings we have had quarter over quarter, year over year the last 6 years that have resulted in unbelievable corporate profits and record billions and billions and billions in cash for some of the top companies in the world......with unemployment nearing historical lows and wages going up with all these great retailers increasing their minimum wage....and GDP hoping along at 2%+ where are the RATE HIKES!!!! If you were to wake up today after a decade long sleep and looked at the closing prices on the dow s$p and nasdaq and looked at the unemployment rate and GDP figures and corporate profits, and how well housing and record car sales were moving along you would think that interest rates to be at least 4%, 4%%%% and that by standards over the last 50+ years is still a historical low, but nope, the fucking fed won't just raise them, stuck at 0% for years now, why not just a simple rate hike to 1%, because what are they going to do when the next recession comes or collapse in the markets and rates are still at 0%? Negative interest rates is the answer because ladies and gentleman thats where the fed is headed next, yes you heard that right, negative interest rates.....these 0% rates are actually doing more harm than good but again you will only notice this after the next collapse comes and people realize that keeping rates at 0% wasn't such a good idea....I have been reading article after article on nasdaq 5000 and the same thing, they are looking back now and and finally realizing that it shouldn't have been nasdaq 5000, that companies with zero earnings were worth more than they should have been worth, that any company with a dot com could go public, no one saw the collapse coming, no one knew that trillions would be wiped out of 401k and that hundreds and thousands of companies would disappear....but at the time everyone was saying buy, buy, buy, nasdaq 10,000 was coming, they say now it was all smoke and mirrors, why are they saying that now after the fact, why not say that during the boom when nothing could go wrong, well the smoke and mirrors leading up to 5000 today is the central banks, it is the free money, the free bailouts here and around the world...its the QE 1, its the QE 2 the QE 3 and soon to be QE 4, its the TARP, its the ludicrous valuations on these companies that are worth 1/100th of what they are valuing them at today...its the huge stock buybacks, its the ZERO % interest rates, its the fucking fed bowing to wall street every time wall street cries like a little bitch, its the fed.....
WOW One month and PCLN is up over 25% thats infuckingsane!!! Dropped below 1000 on January 29th and hasn't looked back.... The Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN) -NasdaqGS Watchlist 1,249.40 11.92(0.96%) 4:00PM EST After Hours : 1,249.00 0.40 (0.03%) 5:20PM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price Add to Portfolio Historical PricesGet Historical Prices for: Set Date Range Start Date:JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecdayYearEg. Jan 1, 2010 End Date:JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecdayYear Daily Weekly Monthly Dividends Only First | Previous | Next | Last Prices DateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj Close* Feb 27, 20151,240.751,246.391,235.121,237.48642,1001,237.48 Feb 26, 20151,248.981,264.001,238.971,241.25935,4001,241.25 Feb 25, 20151,219.141,259.861,217.961,250.861,615,9001,250.86 Feb 24, 20151,204.101,220.361,201.101,219.79603,5001,219.79 Feb 23, 20151,210.471,216.501,202.831,207.58869,4001,207.58 Feb 20, 20151,217.001,230.091,214.761,216.231,296,8001,216.23 Feb 19, 20151,219.001,222.881,195.361,218.052,671,5001,218.05 Feb 18, 20151,116.441,129.981,112.001,122.99819,8001,122.99 Feb 17, 20151,115.001,130.921,114.011,120.99900,8001,120.99 Feb 13, 20151,100.151,108.501,094.591,103.37814,4001,103.37 Feb 12, 20151,077.211,102.261,075.721,091.951,199,1001,091.95 Feb 11, 20151,064.241,067.931,051.051,060.06515,7001,060.06 Feb 10, 20151,040.801,060.801,039.431,057.62657,6001,057.62 Feb 9, 20151,020.651,039.361,014.151,033.15492,7001,033.15 Feb 6, 20151,027.561,030.021,007.111,022.421,305,2001,022.42 Feb 5, 20151,033.521,049.441,031.301,044.60660,3001,044.60 Feb 4, 20151,036.001,041.861,026.341,028.28557,9001,028.28 Feb 3, 20151,019.691,039.991,012.361,037.55870,6001,037.55 Feb 2, 20151,012.001,015.00993.501,013.03655,3001,013.03 Jan 30, 20151,011.741,022.201,008.411,009.48928,4001,009.48 Jan 29, 20151,007.791,015.51992.131,014.74760,5001,014.74