Darn it, I'm busted lol nah not really, people ask me what I do and I tell them I'm a market analyst which seems to cover it. I'm actually quite a reserved and conservative kind of person although I wouldn't say humble, I think the word humble conjurs up the wrong sort of picture. Absolutely agree with you about the simplicity of trading, every day I think to myself this can't be so simple otherwise everyone would be doing it, I'm waiting for the day it all stops working! So far, so good.......
Yea, I know. Its freaky. I want to ask old timers if the market ever "Changed". Of course, we'd have to show our cards. Then again, I could just bring up some old charts and sim-trade it. Too lazy for that.. haha
Haha, that's what I do sometimes! I'll scroll back a few months/years and stop at a random point and then go forward bar by bar looking to see if a trade set-up worked out, it's kind of reassuring. I think markets have subtle changes which we probably don't notice as they're gradual and we adapt to them. Funny thing, whenever I see a chart I look to see if there's a trade, it could be a chart for anything! Sad huh
Oh, me too. Oil, bonds, stocks. Always looking for confirmation. I think most trade the same way.. A few months ago, I arrived at the conclusion the market rarely changes - if ever - from leverage. Some 98% of futures are cash settled. Meaning the buyer forwards 65K (or whatever) on expiry. And seller forwards 65K to the buyer! And both trade on 50:1 leverage with a fraction in their brokerage account... Nearly all volume is speculative. And speculative buying rarely trades fundamentals. Speculative money organizes itself and behaves by its own set of principles. And it can do so successfully, because its mostly speculative money that's in the market! Which is why the market seemingly never changes. Also explains the axiom "the market can remain irrational longer than a trader solvent...". At every bid/ask, 95% of orders are from guys/funds/banks like you me, playing a game within a game. My own theory of market movement - fundamentals dictate long-term direction. Speculation drives/exacerbates those moves. TA defines the edges/periphery,
You got to learn how to position yourself in the same side as the big players and that means knowing what is going on, not just technical analysis
Not bad actually. Still slightly in the hole on a current AUD/USD short, but it's a small position size. You? Funny thing how we rarely talk about trading on this site.