Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Cocoa COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 43%, SS – 28% / COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 18%, LS – 84% / The cot change signal is present: a large, bullish signal. Would have been nicer, if we could see it a bit earlier --> prices have already gone up significantly last week. Is there room for more rally? The longer term picture looks more bearish, so it may be a bit riskier to expect further rises… To be honest, I think it’s simply best, if we look towards other markets, where the signs are more clear. Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 150, LS – 158 report COT extreme / The extreme is relatively large (could be much larger) and at a level, where for the last two occasions, prices reacted to the signal. It is a bullish picture. Soybean Oil COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 127 report COT extreme / I find this market to be very interesting, because the cot report is bearish, although prices are low… If we look at a much longer chart, we can find much larger bearish cot extremes, so if prices start to go higher, there would be room for the extreme to get larger too, thus we could reach a top, where the extreme would seem normal. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-400 COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, SS – 44% / COT Extreme / C – 49 report, SS – All Time COT extreme / The cot change signal is negative, Small Speculators extreme situation also… Could we see further decline in prices? Coffee COT Extreme / C, LS – 345 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is huge, close to all time levels. This is definitely a warning that prices may not be able to continue their rise for too long. Let’s get prepared for a drop in prices. Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 159, LS – 159 report COT extreme / We have reached a cot extreme level where the last two times prices bottomed out and we could see price rally develop afterwards. This is absolutely amongst the possible outcome of this current cot signal. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 35, SS – 58% / The picture is bullish. The large change in Trader’s position, the relative cot extreme here and the more visible, large cot extreme in the Dow support further rally. Orange Juice COT Extreme / C – 294, LS – 294 report COT extreme / The cot extreme in orange juice is unquestionably large and showing a very bullish picture. Signals were nice and effective in this market, so I’d say we can really use this signal and consider a long trade. Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 184, LS – 180 report COT extreme / In contrary to OJ, here the extreme is only large in relative terms. We do see much greater extremes in the past, so it’s a bit difficult to tell, whether or not this extreme is capable of stopping the recent decline or not. It may be a wise idea to analyze other energy markets and taking into account the correlation between them. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 38 / It’s really only the cot change signal that can affect prices now and of course downwards: we do not have a cot extreme situation at the moment. The last major extreme was the bullish one a few weeks ago and as you can see, it still in effect. S&P-400 COT Extreme / LS – 317 report, SS – All Time COT extreme / Small Speculators being all time optimistic about the market is always a warning sign Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 185, LS – 181 report COT extreme / Any questions here? The extreme has been present for a few weeks now and we can see that prices last week managed to rally nicely, so we may have the confirmation needed think seriously about further rallies in natural gas. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 27 / Ok, the change was large, it may draw prices lower in the next few days… What I’m more interested is the long term picture. Prices are high, but we don’t see any indication from the report that we should expect the end of the rally. If you look at small specs here in the Dow, you can see how pessimistic they are about further rallies… I think that’s just a good evidence for us that supports a bullish picture. Orange Juice COT Extreme / LS – 296 report COT extreme / Don’t miss out the opportunity lying here! The bullish cot extreme is present and it is unquestionably large. As you can see on the chart, OJ has reacted nicely to cot extreme signals. I think it can be a wonderful trade. New Zealand Dollar COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 125, SS - 334 report COT extreme / Wow, another great market with a beautiful signal! All major participants of the market hold extremely large positions and similarly to OJ, judging by the past, the market is likely going to react to the signal. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 31 / The larger changes in Commercials and Large Specs positions resulted in a bearish cot change signal. Analyzing the market we can come to the conclusion that these cot change signals were not necessarily effective in many cases. Since we do not have any extreme to talk about (unless we consider the 33 report extreme a relative extreme) I’d say we should move on to other markets. Orange Juice COT Change (52W) / C – 10%, LS – 13% / COT Extreme / C – 584, LS – 579 report COT extreme / I have already analyzed orange jucie last week and it seems that prices have reacted to the signals. It is of course still a good trade in the long run. The changes in Traders positions (Commercials and Large Speculators) were definitely larger than average - bullish signal - but it is really the cot extreme situation we have that makes the trading opportunity very exciting. As you may see on the chart, it has reacted pretty well to these cot extreme signals in the past, and since we have got a very significant extreme, this too has a high chance to become an effective signal. Natural Gas COT Extreme /LS – 183 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is wide and is worth taking into consideration when we analyze the trading opportunities in natural gas, but last week’s decline should warn us to be very cautious with any trade. We may easily see further decline accompanied by a widening extreme. I’m not saying it is going to happen, but it shouldn’t be a neglected possibility. The extreme is present, it is bullish --> this is fact. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-400 COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 29, SS – 15% / Although S&P-400 made it to the top in the list regarding the size of change in Commercials position, I don’t believe that it was too significant. The cot extreme is not large either, so I wouldn’t think it would too wise to force any serious conclusion here. Let’s just say, it’s one of the typical weeks, when we haven’t got a cot signal. Natural Gas COT Index (3yrs) / C – 93%, LS – 0%, SS – 74% / COT Extreme /LS – 184 report COT extreme / The bullish cot extreme is still present in Natural Gas (at least on C and LS side --> SS signal seems to be more bearish). Are we going to see a widening of the extreme in the next few weeks? I don’t know… it is not an easy puzzle that’s for sure. Platinum COT Extreme /LS – 117 report COT extreme / Bullish cot extreme. Large? If we look at the past 5-10 years: Yes, but we have seen much greater extreme before. Still, it is a valid sign, that stress levels are getting much higher. Should we jump in on this signal and start buying? Hmmm… Put this piece of information beside the rest of your analysis (traditional TA etc…) and decide. On its own, this extreme wouldn’t push me into such a decision. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review was not updated this week, but here’s my weekly snapshot anyway! Orange Juice COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 25, SS – 12% / Large cot change sell signal from the report. Not surprising seeing the nice rise in prices! BTW, isn’t it a beautiful example of cot extreme signal’s effectiveness? Anyhow… I think that we can expect a bit of decline in the short term, but I wouldn’t be betting on anything long lasting, since we had this huge cot extreme. Rough Rice COT Index (3yrs) / C – 98%, LS – 0%, SS – 17% / COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme / The cot extreme is huge (All Time in large specs) so the picture is not that difficult to decode Prices have started to increase two weeks ago and this may easily continue in the next couple of weeks! Crude Oil COT Extreme /C – 75, LS – 79 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is large and probably getting larger week by week. Pinpointing the end of the decline, even with the help of the cot report is not something easy… But hey (!), we shouldn’t forget that not too long ago, we had a bearish all time cot extreme! So what’s happening now is what we were expecting to happen a few months ago… All the best, Dunstan COT Charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Oats COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 15, SS – 42% / The cot change signal is positive, suggesting prices can climb higher in the near future. This is backed by a relative bullish cot extreme (nothing too large, so we are not expecting any major influence from it). Mexican Peso COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Get ready for a bottom! I know… it looks “scary” , but hey (!), look at how MXP reacted to similar extremes in the past!! It’s not gonna be an easy trade, but is definitely worth it! Copper COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme / In the last two years, we had similar extremes a few times. Although prices reacted nicely, they couldn’t stay on the rally for too long. I’m not expecting the situation to be any different this time, so even if prices can climb, I wouldn’t be betting on anything long lasting… Nevertheless, it is a great R/R opportunity! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Lumber COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 31, SS – 15% / Although the cot change signal is negative (bearish), looking at the longer charts we can see that we are actually not far away (in time and in net contracts also) from significant bullish cot extreme levels. Conclusion: we may expect declining prices short term, but the medium/longer term picture seems to be bullish. Mexican Peso COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme / The all time cot extreme has widened more as prices are declining further. Catching the bottom is not easy, but it is pretty obvious that it’s going to happen! Natural Gas COT Extreme /C - 191, LS – 191 report COT extreme / Bullish cot extreme in Natural Gas. We had such extremes a few weeks ago and prices has reacted to it. Now we see prices declining again parallel to the growing stress level in the market. Normal. We may see even greater extremes in the near future! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts