Thanks Fort. I haven't been in SIM at all lately, and yesterday was good, but I do have a nice journey ahead of me. NQ didn't do much after that break out. -JS
Yeah, I haven't run numbers yet, but I would imagine playing an opening range b/o must be in the 50% range. Again, I "imagine" this. Testing later If I decide this route.
Hi dratsum, one rule that I have, and am testing, is having my buy stop at least 4 ticks outside of the range on either side. Attached is a chart where I show that one bar that did fail to break out. It came within 1 tick of hitting my sell order. Avoiding getting stopped out? No. Limiting that loss? Yes. If I were entered on that failed b/o, I would have taking my small loss. Probably about 2 points. I would then play the other side b/o. If this one were also stopped out, I'm considering making a rule to end the opening range breakout play. One can also play this moment in different ways as well. PA is always different. For example, when price breaks a range, sometimes, it will retest the R level it broke out of providing a good pullback entry. NQ had that too yesterday. Lastly, I'm working hard at finding my signals in the 5 minute. 1 minute I tend to crack-trade. Here's the 5. The 1 m above I used to simply analyze supply demand and manage the trade. Hope that answers your question. You can't avoid a loss. If we try to "avoid" losses, then we are trying to be "right". Being "right", has no place in trading. -JS
Go back to 1Min but use Heiken Ashi to filter out the noise your seeing, on a good day it's a simple as HA turns up, go long, 10pts later, HA says reverse and 10pips later!! Obviously not all days are that easy, but surprising a lot are. I keep looking at normal candle sticks and wondering how the hell I ever traded that noise and madness.
Hope you all enjoyed your thanksgiving. Today was a neat day. Some success and some struggle. I played the opening range breakout on the 5 minute again, and had success. It got 5 points. I'm considering managing this specific trade on a 1 minute after entry in the 5. I only took 5 points, because price reached the bottom of the pre market trading range. Every bar in the 1 show it heading down more. I missed the 50 something drop. I was faced with that emotion of chasing. Missing out. Then I remembered, "WAIT A MINUTE". Markets do what markets do. They reflect PA. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. And I have to be completely ok with it. My words were great. Good first step. My actions were not. Talk is cheap mother fucker. I, decided to enter the extremely volatile crash, off a one minute chart entry. I'll be removing the 1 minute chart to help avoid this. However, simply removing the chart will not help my self-discipline. I choose. You don't. She doesn't. It doesn't. I choose. Was upset with myself because I didn't follow my plan of patiently waiting a 5 minute chart set up. Took a break, came back to calm. After the crash, horizontal S became OBVIOUS R, great opportunity for short. And boy did I. Last night and this morning have been a breakthrough for me in regards to horizontal levels. S/R. I've always had such a focus on trend lines. Trend lines are important, obviously, but I'm finding really nice PA around S/R levels. Another breakthrough, has been my struggle with the 5 minute chart. It's been hard to unlearn the 1 minute's speed. The breakthrough for me was that the 5 minute really can be managed, and you can also continue to get really nice LOW-RISK entries. Just as in the 1m. I for some reason believed you can't manage on the 5 well. I for some reason believed you can't get low risk trades on the 5. If I'm patient, they are most definitely there. Contradiction: 5m chart can be managed and have low risk entries. VS. Managing the trade on the 1m after opening range breakout. hmmm... In closing, I'm at the end of Douglas. His exercise requires one to pick a set-up. Define each and every variable, and trade it like a casinos edge. That's my next step. For some reason, embarrassingly, I'm finding it hard to CHOOSE the signal I want to perfect. And I think this "choosing one signal thing", might be exposing the perfectionist in me. Traders can't be perfectionists. The market doesn't like them. Perfectionists want to be right. There is no right or wrong in the market. It's all random, anything can happen. I'm striving to incorporate this into my beliefs. I'll get there. -JS
More random musings I chuckle when someone posts to the effect; The bigger the TF – the bigger the risk needs to be…, or less opportunity exists on a higher TF chart Bull…, Shit $57.19 is the exact same on any TF chart When price hit $57.19 @ 11:22 & 45 seconds on MM/DD/YY – it the same exact time…, and date – on every flippin TF chart Why does???..., How can??? – anyone think it different - just because the TF higher Use a lower TF as a microscopic view into a higher one Must have my 1 min CRACK fix - ARGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!! ================== Price is certainly worked on the horizontal..., and diagonal There is one additional dimension it worked on - time =================== Random vs Uncertain Mkt is never random – it is uncertain And yes…, anything can happen – at any time Until properly matured – trader’s actions are random - hence their expectations are met / missed randomly RN
I'm working really hard to get away from the drugs. LOL! CRACK KILLS. Maybe COLD TURKEY is best for a few weeks. I saw today many opportunities on the 5 minute with less then 3 points at risk. Sometimes only 6 or 7 ticks. Good exercise. How is price worked in time? Is that something I should learn? I'm trying to consider way's that works. Do you mean after 1130 when the big boys go play golf? Or maybe are you possibly referring to how it "takes time", for price to reverse and test another resistance level later on in the day? OR, is it just the fact that at at a "certain" time, price hit a resistance level and was immediately rejected. This "TIME" a rejection occurred, especially if recently, is something to consider, instead of a rejection that happened 17 years ago. is it a recent vs past event? Recent bearing more weight on trader's decisions? Random/Uncertain I understand. Saying "it's all random" wasn't thought out well. -JS
What..., and reveal my hard won secrets - surely you jest - LMAO You're working on 1 set up - master that... then ask the above questions later (I simply don't want to throw you off track - what you're doing is important for consistency) I'll PM you what to look for And not to worry - it will not make...., or break you at this point It simply another aspect of reading PA - there are so..., so many nuances to PA RN
LOL. I make a mean Etoufee! Learned from my father-in-law out of Beaumont, TX. It also has chicken wings. Thanks. I seem to be struggling there. I can't seem to figure out the issue either. I'm a bit upset that I've read/learned too much and now I see a plethora of signals. I'm more upset that it's taking me this long to choose one simple signal among the many I know. Also, mapping horizontal has really opened my eyes to more signals, instead of a simply choosing a retracement after a line break. How did you pick your first signal? You just picked one? Plain and simple move on?
If the Etoufee anything like the wings; I can be bought / bribed / persuaded / influenced / swayed And why I said I wouldn’t throw you off track right now – adding time…, will add more signals Every tick…, is truly a signal The real question always…. Is this particular tick – my signal Like to say is was relatively easy and a pretty quick process Course I would be lying my butt off (the only flippin thing I've ever found easy was losing my ass - ahh the good ole days - small wonder I don't miss em one bit) Like you…, and most – I saw “perceived” potential in everything (think – I was a kid in a candy store) Finally came to the realization that I couldn’t handle it all – nor did I need to So I then proceeded to weed out and distill (simplify) down I ended up with signals so simple – they are mind numbingly so (even a dumbass redneck can trade em) ================= Aside There has always raged a debate about just how important entries are Some say entries are everything…, others say they're not so important – rather it the trade management that is all important Personally…, I maintain it is neither – but rather a balance Proper entries (imo) provide Trade direction Low risk Maximum potential to capture profit from a given move Proper management (imo) ensures The lowest risk is garnered (when a trade breaks down) Or The maximum profit (our current skill affords) is garnered (when a trade works) Again.., imo – they must work in unison…, not isolation – to reap maximum benefit ======================= Anyway I digressed As to picking your poison – accept there are many (as many as there are ticks throughout a session) – but at this point – you only require one…, and ultimately – a few simple ones Paralysis by analysis is quite a common affliction amongst aspiring traders - hell even among seasoned ones at times To reiterate - you're onto an important aspect - that'll ultimately reap consistent benefit RN