What we have here is a bounce in a bear. Very clear on the charts. I would be surprised to see us close over 1880 on the March futures anytime soon , but it could happen. If we would get past that I would expect very strong resistance approaching 1940. Clear that and then possibly we could look at this 2000 that has been mentioned or maybe 2025. Longer term we are in a bear market. I am staying short with the position trade but may take some intradays long. Those would be with higher margin.
Thanks I hadn't looked at it from that perspective. We might b nearer to 11/27/2007?.....but I think we're already at 3/18/08.
If I understand correctly, when u or someone says with higher margin, while already holding a position in a different direction then that's the equivalent of a net long rather than net flat. Like buying a single serving against your long term short position would make u flat but buying double your size would be the same as going long? With the understanding that as soon as you exit the long the short position automatically takes affect again.
Correct. Trades are made around the core position using differing time frames. The shorter the time frame, the closer the stop and the higher the margin.
It will much more interesting if you actually read our convo carefully before jumping in like that. 1. We know what his plan is. 2. Yes we know how to read a monthly ES chart. 3. We don't agree with his plan because 1700 doesn't look like a good target, not on the monthly or daily, but more importantly, holding a swing short at 1800 with target at 1700 is poor r/r. But I'm not going to say anything more since Romik appears to have changed his mind about his initial 1700 target, imo this goes much lower than 1700 if 1800 doesn't hold.
Semi-log extrapolation of the last 2 bear markets projects an equivalently weak bear won't hit bottom until 1035 or 1100. Not much difference. or 1150 to 1200 using a linear scale.