ES Journal - 2016

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 24, 2015.

  1. it's over, on the long side
     
    #521     Feb 11, 2016
  2. romik

    romik

    Not over, still...

    green.png
     
    #522     Feb 11, 2016
  3. look at the 15 candles; we test lows or highs first?
     
    #523     Feb 11, 2016
  4. i don't understand your short position

    if you think it's going to go up, why don't you cover and wait for a bounce to enter short again?
     
    #524     Feb 11, 2016
  5. i believe we touch -300 YM again...about 50 handles from here

    i could be wrong, (could be, i'm probably) but why not tank it here? who's going to hurt?
     
    #525     Feb 11, 2016
  6. romik

    romik

    If you keep pulling out of your position trades, then you would probably miss the big move by taking chunks out of it. My short was initially based on a monthly countertrend pattern, now we are about to tip into a proper bear market, but timing is always a big unknown factor ie will it happen tomorrow or next month (most lose money in option plays), so holding is the way IMO.

    I see upside based on a pattern on a 30min chart, will it happen? I don't know, so why would I abandon the short which is in the money now? Catch my drift?
     
    #526     Feb 11, 2016
    dartmus likes this.
  7. It's a smart way to trade...I view it as a position (long term) short that is hedged with near term calls...Most people who bail out of their position short prematurely struggle to find another low risk entry, but at the same time recognizing where some likely buying (covering) is going to occur gives you the chance to just trade against the short position...
     
    #527     Feb 11, 2016
  8. In your own words, you didn't take the short at 1940 and missed roughly 140 pts on the downside...Romik's short from last year did take heat, but now he's ridden it down for the duration...Sure, there are some very talented traders who can flip long/short the whole way down, but just perusing the journals recently, many have been getting whipsawed to death by the recent volatility...
     
    #528     Feb 11, 2016
    romik likes this.
  9. romik

    romik

    IMO it's worth checking out weekly/monthly GBPJPY & USDJPY, as they also point to continuation of equity markets weakness.

    I also believe that silver has bottomed and there will be a substantial pullback within the current downtrend with a possibility of a total reversal.
     
    #529     Feb 11, 2016
  10. yeah but your target is 1700s, that's only about 100 points away

    you're up 200 points and i bet if it squeezes to 2000 you'd be kicking yourself, losing 200 points to gain 100

    your fear of missing out is clouding your better judgment imo, which would be to take profits and wait for a reshort opportunity
     
    #530     Feb 11, 2016