They'd be shorting it only if they: * Ignored the multiple prior session's action leading up to this point (strength/basing). * Ignored overly bearish sentiment and the fact that there's heaps of shorts for the market to punish at this point. * Ignored the fact that it was forming a great rounding bottom and had tested 1883 multiple times with strength present. * Actually believed that after it getting slayed by the NFP number it would just keep selling off in an obvious fashion even though the news (a typical shit-show circus) was out and done.
I went short the YM after the open, betting on a further meltdown. When the market accelerated a bit to the downside but couldn't break the support, I moved my stop very close. Got out with a minimal loss. However, I completely missed the move to the upside.
There is a lot to be learned just from that picture alone, if every trader on this forum contributed to the day's tape, so much valuable knowledge will be gained. But everyone doesn't want their secrets revealed =p
-- if a trader is sharing their so-called 'secrets' and plans and lessons...then it basically doesn't work.
Even if that green area failed it simply doesn't matter. Everyone should be attempting a long right there. 3 attempts to break support and they all fail plus a higher high after that on obvious strength. It seriously doesn't get more straightforward than that. Here's also a perfect case where constant volume charts benefit - the smoothness to the buying all the way up reveals program buying behind it. Put that shit on cruise control. Not really revealing anything here that isn't directly obvious to anyone who's done this for a while. Most traders have issues due to a whole host of other reasons anyway.
Cheers. For what it's worth, I actually bought it too and posted it live in my 'journal'. My reason was it looked like a cup'n handle formation. However, I've stared watching stocktwits and monitoring the posts on the ES/SPY feeds. Pretty much everyone was shorting it on every bounce (10.20, 10.45 etc), expecting continuation down and a likely down trend day and so were caught on the wrong side of that rally and later stopped out.
There's only a few traders I trust on ST. The vast majority of it is dumb money and should be interpreted as such - particularly within the SPY stream where the majority is usually wrong. In fact that sentiment indicator they have has been great for the expectation that there will indeed be a short squeeze. What you'll find is that a lot of traders "in the know" keep it to themselves.
I went short ES before data covered 2 points off low. Then proceeded to short it at 1915, but in 2 lots as opposed to the 1 lot that I had for the initial short. Am still short the 2 lots. I will stay short I believe for a few days.
I was short the day before NFPR and I pretty much covered near day lows, was thinking this will probably bounce a little but still close in negative territory for the day so I went out to attend to some personal matters shortly after I closed my position. Imagine the shock I got when I came back and saw that SPX had closed 27 points higher. Thats a near 60 point intraday reversal, similar to the crazy swings we got on Aug 24. A lot of money was made or lost on this day.