Today he went long at 1962.5 for +14. He mentioned the 1962 area some time before it got there so I assume it wasn't completely 'reactive' He also said 1983 was a short (it then dropped 8 points) but he didn't call that one live, so I won't give him the credit for that one At this second in time he's short from 81 (which is the price now) expecting 74ish. Stop at 84
If I plot the long on the chart, here is what we get. Its really compressed since its a 1 min chart and I wanted to show where the lines come from. My actual ONL would be down around 59, although there is another swing low at 61 that you could have on your radar. In the NQ today, there was a perfect bounce just ticks above the ONL there which set up a perfect trade. Anyway, the fact that he took it only 1 tick above the ultimate low is incredible. Must be using DOM for sure. Even if I plot this on a 5 sec chart, there is like no time to get into this trade as price was only at this level for barely two 5 second bars. As you say, he had this level in mind, which makes sense, and then he was watching what was happening at this level. Price action wouldn't be enough in my opinion to get into this trade as there is zero hint of a reversal yet, but perhaps on the DOM, whoever has figured out how to read that, there might have been footprints there.
Wow.. good stuff. How soon after entry does he post you think? I mean he only says where his entry was, its not like you see a screen capture of it. So today for example, when he said he was long at 62.50, since price was only at this level for seconds, what was the price when you got word of his long?
He must post the second after he's placed his trade. I was able to copy his 62.5 trade today and get a price of 63.25. He mentioned a possible long if it got to 62 a few times, and when it got there I waited for his 'L' to pop up on y skype. Usually I can get about the same price as him, though You mentioned the DOM for entries. I have no idea if you're right. Personally, my instincts tell me he doesn't use it, though. I also wonder where he gets his 'targets' from.
Well... if his calls are this close, then that is awesome. Look at that 5 second chart.. there is nothing there to say go long yet. So either he just has a level in mind and buys as price is falling, or he must be looking at the DOM.. what else could it be?
I don't know. I think he was a bank trader until he quit to trade full time. Maybe there's other things out there than what's spoken about on ET! I honestly don't know.
They do say that the pros don't even look at charts... they have levels in mind. At the same time, a pro is buying in size, so they can't nail these perfect entries, there simply isn't enough volume at these prices for them to load up what they need to for their fund. So I do think the technique for pro guys and retail guys has to be different just because of this. The retail guy is after all just trying to figure out from the institutions are doings and piggy back onto them since they are the ones that move price. But if he knew how the big boys do it, then as now a little guy, he can for sure learn to take advantage of that info.
I don't often try to have a dialogue with individuals that come across like you do. You talk so much, and you think so much, that your ability to listen and contemplate suffers. Your current thought patterns won't lend themselves easily to successful trading, as we've already seen. Whenever I come your posts, they show that you're still not thinking right about how to trade successfully and how to partner with the market. You're missing the forest for the trees; but I don't know how I or anyone else would be able to help you see that. Your overwhelming focus on plotting entries, theorizing about mechanics, and referencing micro-interval charts are evidence to this. If you can unwind yourself, and start trying to understand and familiarize yourself with how the market itself actually moves; and not just regard it as a series of continuous data points that you need to apply rules and statistical procedures to, you might make some progress. Those things definitely have their place, but you're putting the cart before the horse, and you've been doing it for quite some time. Difficulty getting a foothold into consistent trading despite numerous attempts at system design and execution is an indication that your broad-level hypothesis and beliefs about the market are inferior. Start trying to understand when and why you should even begin to be looking to position yourself in a certain direction. You seem so comfortable with data, statistics, and mechanical, that I wouldn't be surprised if you read this post and conclude that it's incredible vague and of no concrete use to you within a few moments after finishing it, never to re-read or think about it again. Unless you learn how to understand the message that people occasionally attempt to convey to you on how to trade successfully without letting it pass right over your head, let all the noise go, and start dreaming and revising your core-level, fundamental understanding of what the market is and how it moves, I think you're going to keep spinning your wheels. Einstein wrote to a companion that a good deal of his observations regarding theoretical physics came from a thought experiment he conducted by pretending to be a photon traveling at the speed of light, and then he went back and ironed out the formulas to describe the insights he discovered from the experiment. He often used to leave his study when particularly stumped and play piano until the answer came to him. You've got to learn to think differently if you want to succeed in this arena.