MCD: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-plots-turnaround-sales-continue-134358232.html http://www.zacks.com/commentary/37961/bear-of-the-day-mcdonald39s-mcd http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MCD+Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mcd Trade: with MCD at 97.28 Sept 110/115 bear call spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.38% in 149 days or 15.6% annualized Prob = 85% Expectation = .85(30) - .08(470) - .07(235) = 25.5 - 37.6 - 16.4 = -28.5 Price................... Profit / Loss.............. ROM % 72.96........................ 30.00...................... 6.38% 86.55........................ 30.00...................... 6.38% 100.85...................... 30.00...................... 6.38% 110.00...................... 30.00...................... 6.38% 110.30....................... 0.00....................... 0.00% 115.00...................... (470.00).................. -94.00% 115.15...................... (470.00).................. -94.00% 129.45...................... (470.00).................. -94.00% 143.75...................... (470.00).................. -94.00%
HSY: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-hsy-lags-q1-earnings-192107112.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-misses-q4-fy-earnings-152603963.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.HSY.NYS?symbol=HSY&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hsy Trade: with HSY at 94.93 Jan 110/115 bear put spread for a net credit of $31 Yield = 31/469 = 6.6% in 267 days or 9% annualized Prob = 80% Price............ Profit / Loss............ ROM % 70.00................ 31.00................... 6.60% 85.00................ 31.00................... 6.60% 100.00.............. 31.00................... 6.60% 110.00.............. 31.00................... 6.60% 110.31................ 0.00................... 0.00% 114.44............ (412.60)................ -82.52% 115.00............ (469.00)................ -93.80% 130.00............ (469.00)................ -93.80% 145.00............ (469.00)................ -93.80%
GM: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1312...ter-earnings-miss.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-motors-gm-misses-q1-202208441.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ss-that-estimated-with-russia-brazil-problems http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...motors-time-to-buy/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GM Trade: With GM at 35.92 Jan 30/27 bull put spread for a net credit of $33 Yield = 33/267 = 12.3% in 266 days or 16.9% annualized Prob = 80% Price.............. Profit / Loss........... ROM % 20.00................ (267.00)............... -89.00% 25.00................ (267.00)............... -89.00% 27.00................ (267.00)............... -89.00% 29.67..................... 0.00................... 0.00% 29.96................... 29.10................... 9.70% 30.00................... 33.00................. 12.30% 35.00................... 33.00................. 12.30% 40.00................... 33.00................. 12.30% 45.00................... 33.00................. 12.30%
GILD: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-tops-q1-earnings-estimates-142002600.html http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...g-too-many-opnions/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GILD+Key+Statistics http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gild Trade: With GILD at 105.01 Jan 70/65 bull put spread for a net credit of $33 Yield = 33/467 = 7.1% in 256 days or 10% annualized Prob = 97% Expectation = .97(33) - .01(467) - .02(234) = 32.0 - 4.7 - 4.7 = 22.6 Price............... Profit / Loss............ ROM % 50.00................ (467.00)................ -93.40% 60.00................ (467.00)................ -93.40% 65.00................ (467.00)................ -93.40% 69.67..................... 0.00.................... 0.00% 70.00................... 33.00.................... 7.10% 80.00................... 33.00.................... 7.10% 90.00................... 33.00.................... 7.10% 100.00................. 33.00.................... 7.10% 110.00................. 33.00.................... 7.10%
TSLA: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-shares-up-2-after-narrower-q1-loss-2015-05-06?siteid=yhoof2 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-posts-wider-1st-qtr-204809335.html http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...rter-earnings-beat/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TSLA+Interactive#symbol=TSLA;range=2y Trade: With TSLA at 230.43 Jan 125/120 bull put spread for a net credit of $33 Yield = 33/467 = 7% in 254 days or 10.2% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(33) - .07(467) -.01(234) = 30.3 - 32.1 - 2.3 = -4.1 i.e. zero Price................. Profit / Loss........... ROM % 90.00.................. (467.00)................. -93.40% 120.00................ (467.00)................. -93.40% 124.67..................... 0.00..................... 0.00% 125.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00% 130.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00% 150.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00% 200.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00% 250.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00%
XLU: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XLU+Interactive#{"range":"5y"} Trade: With XLU at 43.72 Jan '17 33/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/265 = 13.2% in 623 days or 7.7% annualized Prob = 89% Expectation = .89(35) - .05(265) - .06(133) = 31.15 - 13.25 - 7.98 = 9.92 Price............ Profit / Loss........... ROM % 22.50................ (265.00).................. -88.33% 28.67................ (265.00).................. -88.33% 30.00................ (265.00).................. -88.33% 32.65..................... 0.00...................... 0.00% 33.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20% 35.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20% 40.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20% 45.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20% 50.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20% an 'income' trade
HON: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/174185/honeywell-cockpit-technologies-for-indias-indigo-airline http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/171146/honeywell-hon-beats-on-q1-earnings-revenues-down-yy http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.HON.NYS?symbol=HON&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HON+Interactive#{"range":"2y"} Trade: With HON at 102.69 Jan 85/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $42 Yield = 42/458 = 9.2% in 249 days or 13.4% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(42) - .04(458) - .05(229) = 38.2 - 18.3 - 11.4 = 8.5 Price ................Profit / Loss ..........ROM % 60.00 ...................(458.00).............. -91.60% 75.00 ...................(458.00).............. -91.60% 80.00 ...................(458.00) ..............-91.60% 84.58 ........................0.00.................. 0.00% 85.00 ......................42.00.................. 9.20% 90.00 ......................42.00.................. 9.20% 100.00 ....................42.00.................. 9.20% 115.00 ....................42.00.................. 9.20% 125.00 ....................42.00.................. 9.20%
XOM: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/173078/exxonmobil-xom-beats-on-q1-earnings-amp-revenues http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-recommendations-exxonmobil-1q15-150633190.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-...onsider-buying-now-2015-05-12?link=MW_popular http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=XOM+Key+Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.XOM.NYS?symbol=XOM&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XOM+Interactive#{"range":"2y"} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui Trade: With XOM at 86.69 Oct 75/70 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 156 days or 20.3% annualized Prob = 90% Expectation = .9(40) - .03(460) - .07(230) = 36 - 13.8 - 16.1 = 6.1 Price................. Profit / Loss............ ROM % 50.00 ....................(460.00) ...............-92.00% 60.00 ....................(460.00) ...............-92.00% 70.00 ....................(460.00)............... -92.00% 74.51 ........................(9.40) .................-1.88% 74.60 .........................0.00 ....................0.00% 75.00 .......................40.00 ....................8.70% 85.00....................... 40.00 ....................8.70% 95.00 .......................40.00 ....................8.70% 100.00 .....................40.00 ....................8.70%
DDS: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dillards-dds-crumbles-stock-falls-125712025.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.DDS.NYS?symbol=DDS&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=dds Trade: With DDS at 115.48 Jan '16 140/145 bear call spread for a net credit of $55 Yield = 55/445 = 12.4% in 240 days or 18.8% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(55) - .09(445) - .04(223) = 47.8 - 40.0 - 8.9 = -1 Price.............. Profit / Loss.......... ROM % 85.00................. 55.00................... 12.40% 105.00............... 55.00................... 12.40% 125.00............... 55.00................... 12.40% 140.00............... 55.00................... 12.40% 140.55................. 0.00..................... 0.00% 143.01............ (246.20)................. -49.24% 145.00............ (445.00)................. -89.00% 165.00............ (445.00)................. -89.00% 180.00............ (445.00)................. -89.00%
TIP: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indicators-point-firming-inflationary-conditions-141639118.html http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TIP+Interactive#{"range":"2y"} Trade: with TIP at 112.55 Dec 108/103 bull put spread for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 214 days or 23.2% annualized Prob = 83% Expectation = .83(60) - .02(440) - .15(220) = 49.8 - 8.8 - 33.0 = 8.0 Price.............. Profit / Loss............ ROM % 75.00................. (440.00)............... -88.00% 90.00................. (440.00)............... -88.00% 100.00............... (440.00)............... -88.00% 103.00............... (440.00)............... -88.00% 107.40.................... 0.00................... 0.00% 108.00................... 60.00................. 13.60% 115.00................... 60.00................. 13.60% 125.00................... 60.00................. 13.60% 135.00................... 60.00................. 13.60%