LL: http://wtvr.com/2015/03/02/report-h...found-in-va-flooring-from-lumber-liquidators/ http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lumber-liquidators-linked-to-health-and-safety-violations/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/elaines...stions-about-lumber-liquidators-toxic-floors/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formaldehyde http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ll Trade: With LL at 38.83 Jan '16 55/60 bear call spread for a net credit of $75 Yield = 75/425 = 17.6% in 319 days or 20.2% annualized Prob/Expectation....this stock is too volatile for prob and expectation to have any meaning. Price.............Profit / Loss.............ROM % 30.00................75.00....................17.60% 40.00................75.00....................17.60% 50.00................75.00....................17.60% 55.00................75.00....................17.60% 55.75..................0.00......................0.00% 56.46...............(71.40)..................-14.28% 60.00.............(425.00)..................-85.00% 65.00.............(425.00)..................-85.00% 75.00.............(425.00)..................-85.00%
IEP: http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanv...-2014/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahn-got-whacked-oil-142531440.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IEP Key Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.IEP.NAS?symbol=IEP&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...ns":{"^GSPC":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=iep Trade: With IEP at 92.42 Sept 105/110 bear call spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 195 days or 18.5% annualized Prob = 79% Expectation = .79(45) - .14(455) - .07(228) = 35.6 - 63.7 - 20.2 = -48.3 Price..........Profit / Loss.........ROM % 70.00............45.00..................9.90% 80.00............45.00..................9.90% 95.00............45.00..................9.90% 105.00..........45.00..................9.90% 105.45............0.00..................0.00% 109.95.......(450.10)..............-90.02% 110.00.......(455.00)..............-91.00% 120.00.......(455.00)..............-91.00% 135.00.......(455.00)..............-91.00%
Stocks and Bonds both pulling back: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$INDU,$COMPQ,$SPX,$RUT,$TRAN,$WLSH,TLT,BND|B|0
WNR: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/western-refining-wnr-bull-day-065106646.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WNR Key Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/news/western-refining-beats-4q-profit-174310767.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=WNR http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wnr Trade: with WNR at 46.49 Sept 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 194 days or 16.4% annualized Prob = 85% Expectation = .85(40) - .05(460) - .1(230) = 34 - 23.0 - 23.3 = -12.3 Price............Profit / Loss...........ROM % 20.00............(460.00)...................-92.00% 25.00............(460.00)...................-92.00% 30.00............(460.00)....................-92.00% 34.60.................0.00........................0.00% 35.00...............40.00........................8.70% 40.00...............40.00........................8.70% 45.00...............40.00........................8.70% 50.00...............40.00........................8.70% 55.00...............40.00........................8.70%
IWN: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=iwn http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/small-cap-value-equities/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/rk?s=IWN Risk http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=IWN+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=IWN Holdings Trade: With IWN at 100.12 Sept 85/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 163 days or 24.9% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(50) - .03(450) - .06(225) = 45.5 - 13.5 - 13.5 = 18.5 Price................Profit / Loss..........ROM % 60.00................(450.00)..............-90.00% 70.00................(450.00)..............-90.00% 80.00................(450.00)..............-90.00% 84.50.....................0.00.....................0.00% 85.00...................50.00...................11.10% 90.00...................50.00...................11.10% 100.00.................50.00...................11.10% 110.00.................50.00...................11.10% 125.00.................50.00...................11.10%
GILD: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/03/21/dividend-stocks-2-to-avoid-1-to-buy.aspx http://www.investopedia.com/stock-a...s-worth-136-billion-gild.aspx?partner=YahooSA http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...in-biotech-margins/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GILD.NAS?symbol=GILD&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gild Trade: With GILD at 102.29 Jan '16 65/60 bull put spread for $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 299 days or 7.8% annualized Prob = 98% Expectation = .98(30) - .01(470) - .01(235) = 29.4 - 4.7 - 2.4 = 22.3 Price....................... Profit / Loss........... ROM % 45.00 .........................(470.00)................ -94.00% 60.00 .........................(470.00)................ -94.00% 60.90 .........................(379.70)................ -75.94% 64.70 ..............................0.00.................... 0.00% 65.00 ............................30.00.................... 6.00% 75.00 ............................30.00.................... 6.00% 95.00 ............................30.00.................... 6.00% 100.00 ..........................30.00.................... 6.00% 125.00 ..........................30.00.................... 6.00%
DRI: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/darden-restaurants-profit-tops-estimates-2015-03-20 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/olive-gardens-turnaround-well-under-way-2015-03-23 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/darden-dri-upgraded-strong-buy-154003313.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.DRI.NYS?symbol=DRI&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=dri TRADE: with DRI at 69.22 Jan '16 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 297 days or 13.7% annualized Prob = 88% Expectation = .88(50) - .05(450) - .07(225) = 44 - 22.5 - 15.80 = 5.7 Price ....................Profit / Loss .............ROM % 37.50 ......................(450.00) .................-90.00% 46.91 ......................(450.00) .................-90.00% 50.00 ......................(450.00) ..................-90.00% 54.50 ...........................0.00 ......................0.00% 55.00 .........................50.00 .....................11.10% 56.81......................... 50.00 .....................11.10% 66.72 .........................50.00 .....................11.10% 76.62 .........................50.00 .....................11.10% 86.53 .........................50.00 .....................11.10%
SO: http://www.thestreet.com/story/1309...ou-should-buy-now.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.SO.NYS?symbol=SO&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SO+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/news/southern-company-value-pick-income-150613130.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=so Trade: With So at 44.64 Jan '16 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $38 Yield = 38/462 = 8.2% in 287 days or 10.5% annualized Prob = 94.5% Expectation = .945(38) - .01(462) - .05(231) = 35.91 - 4.62 - 11.55 = 20 Price................... Profit / Loss.......... ROM % 22.50..................... (462.00).............. -92.40% 28.89..................... (462.00).............. -92.40% 30.00..................... (462.00).............. -92.40% 34.62......................... 0.00................... 0.00% 35.00....................... 38.00................... 8.20% 35.62....................... 38.00................... 8.20% 42.35....................... 38.00................... 8.20% 49.07....................... 38.00................... 8.20% 55.80....................... 38.00................... 8.20%
TDC: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/premise-health-selects-teradata-cloud-130000139.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/multi-state-provider-osf-healthcare-150000339.html http://www.bidnessetc.com/39089-who...informatica-corporation-takeover-asks-stifel/ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TDC+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TDC http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.TDC.NYS?symbol=TDC&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TDC+Interactive# http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TDC Trade: With TDC at 45.89 Jan 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $45 Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 280 days or 12.9% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(45) - .10(455) - .12(227) = 35.1 - 45.5 - 27.2 = -37.6 Price ............Profit / Loss........... ROM % 20.00.............. (455.00)................ -91.00% 25.00.............. (455.00)................ -91.00% 30.00.............. (455.00)................ -91.00% 34.55................... 0.00................... 0.00% 35.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90% 40.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90% 45.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90% 50.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90% 55.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90% Alternate trade: Jan 35/32.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/215 = 16.3% in 280 days or 21% annualized Prob = 78% Expectation = .78(35) - .10(215) - .12(107) = 27.3 - 21.5 - 12.8 = -7 Price ..............Profit / Loss............ ROM % 25.00............... (215.00)................ -86.00% 30.00............... (215.00)................ -86.00% 32.50............... (215.00)................ -86.00% 34.65.................... 0.00.................... 0.00% 35.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30% 40.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30% 45.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30% 50.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30% 55.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30%
BA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-ba-receives-order-dozens-220210077.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-beats-airbus-first-quarter-103436523.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.BA.NYS?symbol=BA&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BA Trade: With BA at 153.24 Nov 125/120 bull put spread for a net credit of $51 Yield = 51/449 = 11.4% in 220 days or 18.8% annualized Prob = 87% Expectation = .87(51) - .09(449) - .04(224) = 44.37 - 40.41 - 8.96 = -5 Price................. Profit / Loss......... ROM % 90.00...................... (449.00)........... -89.80% 110.00.................... (449.00)........... -89.80% 120.00.................... (449.00)........... -89.80% 124.49......................... 0.00............... 0.00% 125.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40% 130.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40% 150.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40% 160.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40% 170.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40%