UNP: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dump-union-pacific-corporation-unp-183006931.html http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/17/investing/railroad-stocks-us-economy/index.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.UNP.NYS?symbol=UNP&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNP Trade: With UNP at 102.31 Nov 120/125 bear call spread for a net credit of $29 Yield = 29/471 = 6.2% in 154 days or 14.6% annualized Prob = 91% Expectation = .91(29) - .05(471) - .04(235) = 26.39 - 23.55 - 9.4 = -6.6 Price.............. Profit / Loss.......... ROM % 75.00............... 29.00...................... 6.20% 95.00............... 29.00...................... 6.20% 110.00............. 29.00...................... 6.20% 120.00............. 29.00...................... 6.20% 120.29............... 0.00....................... 0.00% 124.12........... (383.20).................. -76.64% 125.00........... (471.00).................. -94.20% 140.00........... (471.00).................. -94.20% 150.00........... (471.00).................. -94.20%
AAPL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102782459 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL Trade: With AAPL at 128.39 Oct 110/105 bull put spread for a net credit of $44 Yield = 44/456 = 9.6% in 114 days or 31.0% annualized Prob = 92% Expectation = .92(44) - .03(456) - .05(228) = 40.48 - 13.68 - 11.4 = 15.4 Price................. Profit / Loss.............. ROM % 78.75..................... (456.00).............. -91.20% 94.44..................... (456.00).............. -91.20% 105.00................... (456.00).............. -91.20% 109.56........................ 0.00.................. 0.00% 110.00....................... 44.00................. 9.60% 110.95....................... 44.00................. 9.60% 127.46....................... 44.00................. 9.60% 143.97....................... 44.00................. 9.60% 160.48....................... 44.00..................9.60%
YUM: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-yum-stock-204108226.html http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...stock-could-fall.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001 http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.YUM.NYS?symbol=YUM&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=YUM+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With YUM at 91.51 Oct 70/65 bull put spread for a net credit of $21 Yield = 21/479 = 4.4% in 113 days or 14.2% annualized Prob = 97% Expectation = .97(21) - .01(479) - .02(240)= 20.4 - 4.8 - 4.8 = 10.8 Price.................. Profit / Loss............ ROM % 48.75................... (479.00)................. -95.80% 61.35................... (479.00)................. -95.80% 65.00................... (479.00)................. -95.80% 69.79........................ 0.00..................... 0.00% 70.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40% 75.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40% 80.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40% 90.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40% 95.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40%
AAL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-american-airlines-aal-231811007.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aal Trade: Jan 55/60 bear call spread for a net credit of $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 201 days or 11.6% annualized Prob = 89% Expectation = .89(30) - .06(470) - .05(235) = 26.7 - 28.2 - 11.8 = -13.3 Price................... Profit / Loss............ ROM % 30.00........................ 30.00.................. 6.40% 40.00........................ 30.00.................. 6.40% 45.00........................ 30.00.................. 6.40% 55.00........................ 30.00.................. 6.40% 55.30.......................... 0.00.................. 0.00% 56.95..................... (164.80).............. -32.96% 60.00..................... (470.00).............. -94.00% 65.00..................... (470.00).............. -94.00% 75.00..................... (470.00).............. -94.00%
MYL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rumor-teva-raise-mylan-bid-202008626.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-plans-raise-mylan-bid-163902739.html http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYL+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With MYL at 71.49 Jan '17 50/47 bull put spread for a net credit of 1.2 Yield = 120/180 = 66% in 6 months or 130% annualized Prob =?? Expectation = ?? Price............. Profit / Loss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
UAL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-united-continental-flights-grounded-134621931.html http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UAL Trade: with UAL at 53.16 Jan 70/75 bear call spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 191 days or 16.6% annualized Prob = 84% Price ..............Profit / Loss ...........ROM % 40.00.................... 40.00................. 8.70% 50.00.................... 40.00................. 8.70% 60.00.................... 40.00................. 8.70% 70.00.................... 40.00................. 8.70% 70.40...................... 0.00................. 0.00% 72.00................. (160.50)............. -32.10% 75.00................. (460.00)............. -92.00% 82.88................. (460.00)............. -92.00% 90.00................. (460.00)............. -92.00%
HUM: http://www.investopedia.com/stock-a...atch-made-heaven-aet-hum.aspx?partner=YahooSA http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hum http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/180695/aetnahumana-merger-why-investors-are-uncertain-and-wary http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...announces-37-billion-merger-with-rival-humana http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.HUM.NYS?symbol=HUM&form=PRFIEQ Trade: with HUM at 187.16 Jan '16 145/140 bull put spread for a net credit of $90 Yield = 90/410 = 22% in 189 days or 42% annualized Prob = ? Expectation = ? Price............. Profit / Loss......... ROM % 105.00............... (410.00).......... -78.00% 120.00............... (410.00).......... -78.00% 140.00............... (410.00).......... -788.00% 144.10.................... 0.00.............. 0.00% 145.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00% 155.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00% 175.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00% 200.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00% 220.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00%
BHP: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-bhp-billiton-bhp-104310171.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.BHP.NYS?symbol=BHP&form=PRFIEQ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bhp Trade: With BHP At 39.67 Jan 50/55 bear call spread for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 186 days or 14.8% annualized Prob = 84% Price.................. Profit / Loss.............. ROM % 29.75........................ 35.00................... 7.50% 37.24........................ 35.00................... 7.50% 45.12........................ 35.00................... 7.50% 50.00........................ 35.00................... 7.50% 50.35......................... 0.00.................... 0.00% 52.99..................... (264.30)................ -52.86% 55.00..................... (465.00)................ -92.50% 60.87..................... (465.00)................ -92.50% 68.75..................... (465.00)................ -93.50%
GPRO: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...hot-at-dominating-the-drone-market-2015-07-14 http://www.mercurynews.com/60-secon.../biz-break-gopro-soars-after-barclays-upgrade http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GPRO.NAS?symbol=GPRO&form=PRFIEQ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GPRO+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With GPRO at 54.50 Jan 2017 50/60 bull call spread for a net debit of $340 Price.......... Profit / Loss........ ROI % 37.50............ (340.00)......... -100.00% 45.00............ (340.00)......... -100.00% 50.00............ (340.00)......... -100.00% 52.27............ (112.70)......... -33.15% 53.40................. 0.00............. 0.00% 59.85............. 644.80.......... 189.65% 60.00............. 660.00.......... 194.12% 65.00............. 660.00.......... 194.12% 70.00............. 660.00.......... 194.12%
BBY: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-slowdown-leads-bofa-to-cut-rating?cmpid=yhoo http://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...bearish-from-bullish-2015-07-17?siteid=yhoof2 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bby Trade: With BBY at 32.58 Jan 37.49/41.49 bear call spread for a net credit of $46 Yield = 46/354 = 13% in 182 days or 25% annualized Prob = 81% Expectation = .81(46) - .07(354) - .12(177) = 37.3 - 24.8 - 21.2 = -9 Price............. Profit / Loss........... ROM % 25.00................ 46.00................. 13.00% 30.00................ 46.00................. 13.00% 35.00................ 46.00................. 13.00% 37.49................ 46.00................. 11.50% 37.95.................. 0.00.................. 0.00% 40.78............. (283.10).............. -70.78% 41.49............. (354.00).............. -87.00% 45.00............. (354.00).............. -87.00% 50.00............. (354.00).............. -87.00%