Results for the week ending July 18th: (live accounts, 1 contract each) - Basic TM (v04, all patterns): 3 losses ; net -1910 - Alternate TM (v05, patterns 151+152+153+154): 1 win ; 1 loss ; net -390 Not a good week, especially for the BasicTM. I was running v05-beta on my AlternateTM account, which got out of the last trade sooner than v04, and saved about 300. Upon close inspection of price-action following the Long entry overnight Friday, I did find that the immediate price-reaction up did reach the level required for the BasicTM exit, but the volume traded in that reaction wasnât enough to validate a bona-fide trend-change, which is used as dynamic exit-signal (the volume filter is a protection against the famous & numerous spikes in CL). This is a âday-oneâ issue which went unnoticed until today â there were only similar 5 occurrences in the 7+ years / 1600+ trades (pattern 151 only) backtest. I have fixed that issue in v05.b which was released Friday evening, adding a specific dynamic-exit signal which in the future will ensure the same trade would be exited as soon as the volume condition is met, and price is seen having reached or exceeded the level required before the volume condition was met. In consideration for this software bug and its impact on that tradeâs outcome, I have decided to provide one month of CL151 subscription free of charge for all current CL151 clients. On the bright side, I did release Friday CL151 v05, which adds 2 new patterns (302 & 152), 1 new filter to patterns 150 & 151 each, and 1 "early-exit" signal when a CT trade sees a strong trend develop against it. This new version achieves higher performance metrics than v04 on a higher trade count. The website has been updated with v05 information. Have a good week-end, Dominique
Results for the week ending July 25th: (live accounts, 1 contract each) - Basic TM (v05, all patterns): 1 loss ; net -695 - Alternate TM (v05, all patterns except 150): 1 loss ; net -535 I have released a maintenance version for CL151 v05, with a few improvements to the early-exits introduced in v05. Have a great week-end, Dominique
Results for the week ending August 1st: (live accounts, 1 contract each) - Basic TM (v05, all patterns): 4 wins ; 1 loss ; net +1875 - Alternate TM (v05, all patterns except 150): 2 wins ; 1 loss ; net +2765 Nice to see the system perform well in a sustained trend. Of the 5 trades for BasicTM, there were 4 shorts / 1 long, and the only loss was very minor (-45) on the first trade (short) of the week. 2 less trades for AlternateTM, as the last 3 shorts for BasicTM were back-to-back patterns 150 / 151, meaning the AlternateTM stayed short throughout the sequence, for a very nice trade outcome of +2715. My BasicTM account remains -1610 in DD, while the AlternateTM account made a new P&L peak (+1310 higher than prior P&L peak). Have a great week-end, Dominique
Live P&L for both accounts attached (left scale: trade P&L, right scale: Cumul P&L) The BasicTM is properly tracked on RAPACapIntro (weekly updates), the AlternateTM is in the same account I used to trade CLAlwaysIn, so it is there also but I didn't resize the account to match the recommended account-size for AlternateTM, and prior to April 6th 2014 the P&L is CLAlwaysIn, so it makes it difficult so see what's going on.
I have updated the CL151 page on the website. In particular, I have added an analysis of the EntryStop impact on the BasicTM performance (also attached). Interestingly, a 50-ticks entry-stop yields about 76% of the max P&L (obtained at 120-ticks entry-stop), a similar result to CL302 (~77%), even though CL151 sports a much higher percentage of CT trades (patterns 151+302+153 = 83% of CL151 backtest setups, vs pattern 302 = 72% of CL302 backtest setups).
Results for the week ending August 8th: (live accounts, 1 contract each) - Basic TM (v05, all patterns): 2 losses ; net -1260 - Alternate TM (v05, all patterns except 150): 2 losses ; net -1260
Results for the week ending August 15th: (live accounts, 1 contract each) - Basic TM (v05, all patterns): 2 wins; net +1320 - Alternate TM (v05, all patterns except 150): 2 wins ; net +1320 AlternateTM account made a new (marginal) P&L peak (+60 vs prior P&L peak July 30th). BasicTM account still in drawdown (-1550 vs P&L peak June 12th)