People now are very concerned about China's growth this year, but my question to you is more general. How do you see PRC in 10-20 years? Will it be a new empire or will it go down like the Soviet Union?
it will probably end up about like the United States. As a matter of fact, all nations will end up like us if they don't mend their ways.
The future is a gamble -- no point in thinking too hard about it. Easier to think, and trade, in the here and now.
If they let CAPITALISM LEAD THE WAY, they will be the dominant economic power in the future...no doubt. Think of China as a young emerging country like the U.S. used to be...population growth...consumption...rapid middle class developing, etc.. Of course there will be problems along the way...recessions...wars, etc. (just like the U.S.).
Some people argue it's going down big time over the next decade because of the pollution (not talking about air quality). The western countries have been quiet clever in outsourcing all their shit to China because a) they get cheaper wages but far more importantly b) they export all the industrial waste. China being none too clever has just dumped most of it into rivers and fields next door to the factories and that might come back to haunt them in a massive way.
interesting post, it looks like that, but I find a problem with an entrepreneurial spirit or rather a lack of this spirit. You know, here in the U.S. people have a different philosophy, Chinese people are usually great workers but average entrepreneurs.
I agree, it's difficult to make forecasts what will happen in the future. But I can say that, with a huge population and territory of the country, development of China's economy could have significant global implications.
World Bank...working age in China could fall by 10% in 2040. Is that significant? Who knows. Also, change in one child policy is a variable to consider.