DP Either one embraces uncertainty - or not Straddling this particular fence will only serve to cut you off at the knees So pick yer poison and ingest willingly ============================ In my world - probabilities do not exist..., cannot exist..., will never exist..., and are simply an enabler for turning a blind eye to the truth Your choice Sir - one..., or the other..., but can't be both RN
The mkt is uncertain - and no amount of whatever (indicators/ back testing/ hoping / praying)..., will ever alter that one smidgen Everyone - feel free to disagree to the extent that fact brings you discomfort But..., it remains fact nonetheless I accept that uncertainty - to my very core I embrace it..., and in turn It embraces me It empowers me It frees me Probabilities are for gambling - where the odds set..., and known to all This is trading - where the perception of probability - is a crutch ========================= You're Welcome Sir RN
Ah, semantics. I'll grant you there are few or perhaps even no known probabilities in trading. But there are relative probabilities. We can say that sometimes event A is more likely than event B. If we can accumulate sufficient relative probabilities and know under what conditions they occur, there's the makings for a trading plan there.
Probability exists wherever there is uncertainty. Probability is the science of uncertainty. Just because you don't know the probability, that doesn't mean it isn't there, or that it doesn't matter. You completely ignored my points about relative probabilities to hammer on one word.
Uncertainty - can be mathematically modeled Past human behavior - can be mathematically modeled Future human behavior - cannot Tis a bitch for the ole noggin to absorb uncertainty or not RN
RN, We may be saying the same things in a little different way. While probabilities exist, they will not show up as valid in the number of trades you make in a day, a week, or even a month. Trying to make your trades come out into some concept of wins to losses will just go to frustration and a tendency to not stick to your process. So coming at it in this round- about way I agree with you RN the perception of probabilities can mess you up. I throw them out the window when I’m trading. And the other thing is… the market is full of change-ups, so yes, indicators, back testing and praying won’t give you consistent profits. So what to do? How do you get to Mark Douglas’ “successful traders have absolute confidence of profitability in an uncertain environment”? Trying to get rid of the uncertainty is to get off track. It is what trading is, and what separates it from gambling, as RN points out. Also I argue that becoming successful as a trader moves you in an opposite direction from addiction, in that it requires you become more and more objective. Perhaps it is the realization of uncertainty and embracing it that frees you to take the small loss. Perhaps it is the realization of uncertainty that frees you from greed when you have the big win and keeps you from overconfidence on the next trade. Perhaps…. [I'll give an example of what I meant by use of math after a while...] [I was wondering before if by "DP" you meant "data processing"?]