csinvesting.org This guy has lots of charts to the effect that gold is in a capitulation phase. I've heard lots of people say that sentiment is very negative or the GDX/GOLD ratio shows a bottom is here or that the Chinese are manipulating, etc etc. OK, let's be clear. The sideways action in gold took over two years. It broke down out of that pattern on Monday. It can't break down and bottom in the same day. The fact that everyone is calling a bottom on the breakdown day just shows how bullish and utterly committed the gold bulls are. No amount of evidence short of losing all their money will persuade them. The complacent bottom calls just show how much further gold has to fall.
More bottom calling. Bottoms don't form the day of the breakdown! This isn't so much bottom calling as denying the breakdown even occurred.
If the GDX gold ratio is at an all-time low, there are two ways for that to return to a more normal level: GDX to rally or GOLD TO COLLAPSE. Which seems more likely at this point? Nobody seems to priced in the possibility that $GLD could fall $10 in a week. It is entirely possible, imo. That's how lopsided the sentiment is vs the unequivocal message of the gold chart. One or the other has to give.
I think gold has hit a short-term bottom in the sense that we may see a technical rally from this point but I can't say that the long-term outlook for gold is bullish. As for the breakdown, gold didn't breakdown yesterday. It actually broke down a like a week before. It just happened to accelerate downwards on yesterday, which tells me that gold may have just undergone a selling climax and that we can now expect an attempt to rally.
MT, I'll grant I don't know the first thing about commodities or gold. But the chart is, as the Germans like to say, a tremendous Shitstorm. Everybody is calling for a short-term bottom. That's not a good sign.
Fundamentally, I don't know much about those markets either. I only take price into consideration. LOL
GLD is not gold. The actual $GOLD chart didn't close at a new low until Monday. Certainly the market didn't focus attention on the breakdown until Monday.
This barrons column calling for a bottom in gold is the most read article on the Barrons site right now.