Thanks for all the great replies, I am considering switching to stock index futures and gold/silver and try find an edge there trading more long term. I think the currency market is becoming more and more difficult for me to time to get those outsized returns I did in the past. I think stress has also been affecting my judgement, anxiety about news announcements affecting my positions.
If your m1 trader then it's all about waiting for an up move then jumping on it, dax has been good recently, FX has its moments but to flat most of the time to get away with this for my likings. Comms are to for me on FX aswell. Crack this and draw downs will be a thing of the past as very few losers
I usually trade hourly or daily time frames but I have had a few successful day trades. Do you recommend trading popular indexes like the SP500/STOXX50/FTSE100 or less popular ones such as the German, Italian and Spanish indexes ?
I generally just trade the dax ie German but that's cause it's my cheapest option really and it moves very well when I'm around. I used to just zone out and wait for a turn our what looked like a turn which is always high risk, these days....... Direction is up Look for a mini pull back and pause Enter long Basically just using the noise to enter with really, most trades are just scalps, it reaches the other side and i take it, some hold longer depending on market strength ofcourse, but only just got my head around this after many years of trying, need to work on this part next. On 16 winners and 0 losers with this method so far, sure I will screw it up soon get over confident, not want to lose and get slapped hard. Lol
Lets whip up a little interpretive narrative It was over a 30 or so trades Nothing so far losing 20 trades at 2 percent each and winning 10 at 1-2 percent each. Losing trades = lose up to 2X more than winning trades Winning trades = never win more than the losing trades Flies in the face of proper risk / trade management Summary = problematic and unsustainable Usually my win rate is much higher, When the amount a losing trade..., loses - equals/ exceeds the winning amount - each winning trade makes The approach is flawed..., and unsustainable - period No matter the win rate Can't beat the math i took profits way to early in all the trades This say there is a hiccup internal to the trader..., and to a lessor extent - to each trade's plan and cut losses way too early. Further reducing my win rate. This says there is really no systematic approach - other than to enter - then hope volatility produces the desired outcome (returns a losing trade back to a profitable one) fyi - volatility masks piss poor trading skills - always has..., always will Granted..., one could interpret this quote as an RTM trading approach - but I doubt it ================== Me thinks this trader should reevaluate not only his/ her internal workings..., but also their entire approach to trading / risk management / trade management jmdao - what do I know anyway RN
+1 This is a great rule of thumb, especially if you don't have a long backtest to draw on. If it makes you feel better I'm currently in a 16.7% drawdown, but my vol target is 25% annualised, so I'd only be concerned at eithier a drawdown in the 33% (from simulation) to 37.5% range.