Timeframes are worth shopping for, but I don't think it's that easy to generalize which is best for oneself. For example, in a given instrument there may be clean, tradeable waves on the hourly which become completely invisible on the weekly, so much so that you might be able to extract for example 30 points on the hourly out of a 10-point 6-month move on the weekly. That being said, time invested is also a factor to consider. If you spent 20 hours managing that 10-point move over 6 months, vs 200 hours day trading for the 30 points during the same period, that's tipping the scale back in favor of the weekly in this case, if one values time. (0.5pt/hr vs 0.15pt/hr return on time) Then again, we haven't factored in leverage yet, which the shorter timeframe trader can typically afford more of due to smaller stops, which compensates the poorer return on time in absolute terms. That could tip the scale back in favor of the shorter timeframe despite the higher time cost. Lastly, learning: I want a decent feedback cycle while I'm learning live execution, I don't want to wait weeks at a time to learn from my mistakes. For me, congratulations to those who go all the way down to tick-by-tick don't-blink-or-you'll-miss-it scalping, been there long ago, wouldn't do it again. But on the other extreme, I don't have the kind of account size and experience to allow me the luxury of trading weekly or even daily charts. I happen to be available near-full-time anyway, so intraday on multi-hour positions with still plenty of time to think and stay relaxed, but no overnight risk exposure, makes the most sense to me personally. I assume in 10 years it'll be quite different.
On the other hand, it doesn't have to be either/or. For example, there is currently an opportunity in oil stocks which has not occurred in six years. To trade it short-term, much less scalp it, is to squander the opportunity. The same can be said of the bottom of the next bear market. Intraday trading is fine for what it is, but few people can build wealth with it.
Rhetoric never made anyone any money. The more verbose a person is about themselves the less likely truth is being told When it comes to the financial markets.
Think about it, an anonymous price action verbose poster above is telling you for free about vague opportunities that will benefit him no matter what happens in the market. What up with dat? Think about it.
The "Oil Stock Cycle" is a really hard thing to figure out, me and BlackPacman were discussing Gold and Oil stocks sneaking up around early Feb as money-flow was absorbing various oil stocks. That day I think my friend BP bought lots of oil stocks and I bought BBEP before it jumped from $6 to $9+, it was a heck of a trade! If supply is sitting on the rail cars when do we know and what agencies do we follow to figure out when that price will stop falling. I was around when Oil Shock prices nailed the 1970s with Stagflation pressures, same with Gold in 1978-1980. Interest rates went to 20% and Mom and Dad dumped all their cash T bonds yielding 17% if memory serves me right. A once in a lifetime gain on Bonds is what they got. Oil, what are you looking for and how do we know when it's the right time? I think SLCA, EMES and HCLP would be the first set of stocks to watch because they are the real "Canary in the coal mines" in this sector.
Depends on what you mean by the "right time", i.e., the right time to do what? This is a copy of the chart I posted a month ago when the downtrend was broken (not reversed, broken). I said then that if price rose above this level, buy. If it dropped below 44, sell. Or short again. Since then we've simply gone sideways. And so we wait. As to your choices, I'm following two of those myself, along with 6 others.
FYI and whoever else might be interested, I've updated the above chart (whether it's pertinent or not, I have no idea, as the thread has taken off in a direction that is sort of vague and undefined, but you showed interest in these posts and "liked" my response, so . . . ). As you can see, oil broke its downtrend when price exceeded its last swing high (the arrow). However, an actual reversal did not take place since that break was never exceeded. Instead, price has been moving sideways for five weeks. This is information for those who understand that price is moved by traders and those movements reveal information about what those traders are thinking. At the time, I suggested that those who want to buy wait until price breaks out of this "consolidation", above the arrowed bar. Those who want to sell or short should wait until price drops below 44. Those who want to trade the range and know how are free to do so, but that's not what I'm looking for.
Thank you Sir Phoenix, it's great to experience Traders who really dig deep in to the all the price action and see things other's can't grasp. I've met more people on Elite Trader who know more about Trading and Charts than all time wasted on Message Boards like Yahoo and other Joke Boards, thank's again Phoenix for sharing this data. The Dow and Nasdaq appear to be heading to new highs and March should be a New High as Hedge Funds allow stocks to move onward as Oil try's to find some type of ground floor after all the negative comments daily where it's going to crater to. I get the WSJ delivered and each day these clowns talk about $20 or $30 per barrel (I doubt that because Oil is finite and use by India and China will pick up above past usages as they and the other part of the BRICs continue to out pace the United States demand.). I don't see Oil hitting lower than $40 and believe the Hedge Funds and Oil Traders actually control the Market. I believe the United States and Europe are using Oil as some type of Economic Nuclear Bomb to punish Russia for all their transgressions of Air Malaysia, Ukraine, Crimea too. I am waiting to add more cash to my Oil Portfolio as soon as the Citibank Traders start going for it. Good Luck my friend!
Only scalpers, (i.e. Market makers) can make consistent money. Even they {Specialists} can be losers at times.. You still could scalp {provide liquidity} for NYSE traded HY Bond etfs and be long and short and try to grind out some profit on IB. Must have a lot of money and nerves, I'd personally NOT do it, knowing the technology quirks, but this is precisely what we did prior NYSE decimalization. Disclaimer; I am not sure during 2008 what these ETF's were doing...